Slight cooling for Sunday, Monday followed by hot temperatures and monsoonal flow
Friday, June 17, 2016
After another couple of hot and dry days for Friday and Saturday, a wave passing to our north on Sunday will moderate temperatures a bit as a couple of weak cool fronts pass through the area on Sunday and Monday. There may also be a slight chance of afternoon storms each day as the cool fronts destabilize the atmosphere for the first time in a week.
The storm to our north will amplify into a deep eastern trough through the week as still cold air from Canada is drawn southward into the eastern third of the country. Additionally, another Pacific storm will approach the West Coast early in the week, and a strong western ridge will rebuild over the Great Basin early in the week before being nudged eastward by the slowly advancing Pacific storm.
Hot temperatures will return by Tuesday afternoon, and as the ridge slowly moves eastward the southerly flow around the west side of the ridge will allow the southwest US monsoon to make its first appearance of this summer season.
Monsoonal flow refers to the seasonal reversal of the winds, and in our case this refers to the influx of moisture as southerly winds pick up moisture originally from the Gulf of Mexico that has moved westward across Mexico and moves it over our area.
Only a slight chance of afternoon storms are expected for Tuesday and Wednesday as temperatures soar to their warmest reading of the season under the building ridge. The monsoon becomes established enough by Thursday to bring a greater chance of clouds and afternoon storms that may last through the weekend.
Hot and dry follows an unsettled Monday and cool Tuesday
Sunday, June 12, 2016
After another round of afternoon of showers in the Steamboat Springs area today, the southern part of the Pacific storm that split off the West Coast yesterday will cross the southern California coast tonight and move northeastward across the Great Basin during the day Monday, eventually crossing Colorado soon after midnight on Monday.
Moisture and lift in the southwest flow ahead of the storm will bring a better chance of storms for Monday, possibly starting by as soon as noon and continuing into the overnight hours.
The storm is now forecast to move faster than on my Friday forecast, so any overnight precipitation should end by Tuesday morning, followed by drying and slight cooling in the west to northwest flow behind the departing storm.
The flow backs to the southwest by late Tuesday, bringing in very dry air from the desert southwest and starting a warming trend on Wednesday that will see dry conditions and increasingly hot temperatures continue into at least the beginning of the weekend.
Though another strong Pacific storm approaches the northwest coast around Tuesday of this work week, the strong June sun will amplify the central US ridge and shunt the storm to our north when it eventually moves inland early in the weekend. However, we may see some relief from the unseasonably hot temperatures by Sunday as models drag some cool air from this passing storm over our area.
Unsettled weather returns from Sunday through Tuesday
Friday, June 10, 2016
A strong Pacific storm has split off the West Coast, and the southern part of the split as well as a separate storm currently near northern Baja will bring increased chances of unsettled weather for the Steamboat Springs area as soon as Saturday afternoon.
Southerly flow ahead of the southern part of the split picks up the Baja storm and moves it over the Great Basin tomorrow. Though the storm will travel west of us, the increased moisture and upward motion will increase the chance of afternoon storms for Saturday.
By Sunday, additional energy from the north reinforces the southern part of the split and forces it eastward across the southern Great Basin, eventually moving over our area early on Tuesday.
There will still be a chance of afternoon storms on Sunday as the southern storm approaches the area, though they should be less numerous than on Saturday.
By Monday, the proximity of the storm will once again increase the chance of late-day storms. As the storm moves over us overnight or early Tuesday, rain may continue into the overnight hours and extend into the morning. Showers should wane during the afternoon as cool, dry air overspreads our area on the backside of the departing storm.
By Wednesday, our flow backs from the northwest to the southwest ahead of yet another large Pacific storm approaching the northern West Coast. This will bring much drier air for the rest of the work week and extending into next weekend, along with increasing temperatures.
Steamboat Springs area weather forecast from Monday
Monday, June 6, 2016
There will still be a small threat of afternoon storms on Tuesday, though less than on Monday, as a weak Pacific wave, currently in Nevada as of Monday afternoon, moves some dry air over our area as it travels eastward across the Great Basin.
This weak wave weakens further as it interacts with the dominant western ridge, and due to its dry nature, it affects on our area will be minimal as it loiters in Colorado for a few days.
By Wednesday and through the first part of the weekend, the ridge rebuilds and temperatures will continue to increase to their warmest readings of the year, though there will still be a chance of afternoon storms, some possibly strong, as southwest flow increases ahead of a much stronger Pacific storm forecast to cross the West Coast around Saturday.
The Pacific storm is now forecast to split on Sunday, with most of the energy staying to our northwest as in previous forecasts, but some of the energy moving across Arizona and New Mexico by early in the next work week. Due to the dry nature of the southern part of the split, the chance of afternoon storms will be reduced starting Sunday and lasting into the next work week.
If you’ve made it this far, my future blog posts will be returning to a less frequent publishing schedule. I’ve been publishing daily since mid-January hoping to increase viewership and revenue from the ads on my site, but I am no longer able to spend as much as the hour a day it took to produce these forecasts with the meager revenue the ads are producing. At this point, I am thinking an early-week blog around Monday to let readers plan for the week, and a late-week blog around Thursday or Friday for the weekend.
Feel free to post comments if you have thoughts about this change. Or if you would like to advertise on my site.
Steamboat Springs area weather forecast from Sunday
Sunday, June 5, 2016
A weak wave to our north will pass through the area Monday, again leading to the chance of afternoon thunderstorms, though they may produce more wind than rain as the lower levels of the atmosphere remain quite dry.
Tuesday will keep the threat of afternoon showers present, though less than Monday as a weak Pacific wave, currently in northern Nevada as of Sunday afternoon, moves some dry air over our area as it moves eastward across the Great Basin.
This weak wave weakens further as it interacts with the dominant western ridge, and due to its dry nature, it affects on our area will be minimal as it loiters in Colorado for a few days.
By Wednesday and through the rest of the work week, the ridge rebuilds and temperatures will continue to increase to their warmest readings of the year, though there will still be a chance of afternoon showers as southwest flow increases ahead of a much stronger storm forecast to cross the West Coast around Saturday. Current model have the storm weakening as it moves to our northwest through the western ridge, but it may be close enough to increase winds by the end of the week.
