Best moisture stays south as a series of cool fronts pass through
Monday, August 22, 2016
A storm currently skirting northern Montana has dragged some energy in the Great Basin, leftover from the previous storm at the end of last week, over Colorado this afternoon. The best moisture is south of the Steamboat Springs area, and while we may see some showers, most of the rain will stay south.
Another piece of energy from the Great Basin will again be forced over Colorado on Tuesday, and again it looks like the best moisture and forcing will remain south of our area. There will still be a threat of showers tomorrow afternoon and evening depending on the eventual track of the diffuse Great Basin energy.
A dry cool front from from the Montana storm looks to cross the area early on Wednesday bringing cooler but still seasonable temperatures with some drier air working into the area.
Similar to last week’s storm, some energy from the Montana storm is also left behind in the Great Basin. This is forecast to move over our area on Thursday and Friday as another storm drops southward from western Canada, eventually moving over our area around late Friday night or early Saturday morning. We will have a chance of storms on both Thursday and Friday as upper level energy moves overhead, with some storms possibly becoming strong later Friday and into the overnight hours as the main front approaches and eventually crosses the area.
While some showers may remain for Saturday under continued cool temperatures, dry air looks to overspread the area around mid-weekend, bringing sunny conditions and warmer temperatures that look to last into the beginning of the next work week.
Cool start to the weekend followed by modest moisture next week
Friday, August 19, 2016
The well-advertised cool front is currently moving through the Steamboat Springs area with most of the precipitation occurring south of our area. There may still be a chance of a shower this evening, but drying behind the front will limit any rainfall.
Even drier air works into the region by Saturday afternoon, and combined with a final push of cool air by a trailing wave Saturday night, Sunday morning will start quite chilly. However a rapidly building western ridge will allow temperatures on Sunday to reach above normal.
Another Pacific Northwest storm approaches the coast on Sunday and drags some weak energy loitering off the California coast eastward. Southwesterly flow ahead of the southern portion of the storm will allow moisture to work back into the area, possibly producing some Sunday afternoon clouds and a stray shower.
Moisture, though modest, will continue to increase through Wednesday as the parent storm moves along the U.S. - Canadian border and continues to drag the southern portion of the storm across the Great Basin and over our area on Tuesday and Wednesday. This should produce a decent chance of wetting rains those days, with some of the storms possibly lasting into the overnight hours.
Earlier this week, it looked like dry air would overspread the area for the end of the work week in westerly flow, but now models have another push of cool air traveling southward from the Canadian Plains as the old Pacific Northwest storm phases with a storm over Hudson Bay. Most of the energy is currently forecast to stay north and east of our area for mostly dry and seasonably cool temperatures.
Fall knocks on the door this weekend
Monday, August 15, 2016
A couple of week circulation centers currently located in Nevada and just off the northern California coast will keep the threat of afternoon showers for the Steamboat Springs area through midweek as they meander around the Great Basin. The chance for afternoon showers will increase for Tuesday and more so for Wednesday as the airmass gradually moistens. Due to the still dry lower atmosphere though, we may see more wind than rain.
Some cool air from the North Pole will break away from the Polar Vortex and travel southwards across western Canada, bringing an unseasonably cool airmass southward in several pieces. The first minor front is timed for Thursday afternoon or evening and may phase with some of the Great Basin energy and allow for a good chance of wetting rains through Thursday afternoon and evening.
The strongest push of cool air looks to occur around Friday afternoon or evening as a well-defined wave travels from the north-northwest over northern Colorado. As with the Thursday wave, more Great Basin energy will be pulled over our area contributing to more wetting rains with possibly strong storms Friday, especially in the afternoon and evening.
Saturday should be noticeably cooler with possible light showers in the cool and unstable northwest flow. A trailing wave will reinforce the cool air with the third and final front timed for Saturday evening, and again this may increase the chances for showers that may last into the overnight hours.
The flow backs to the west by early Sunday bringing in dry air and allowing temperatures to warm and the skies to clear. This trend looks to continue into the beginning of the next work week.
Beautiful weekend followed by gradually increasing moisture next week
Friday, August 12, 2016
Cooler and very dry air has invaded the Steamboat Springs area after the cool front passed through last night leading to a beautiful weekend forecast with cool nights and seasonably warm days. A trailing wave in the current northwest flow may produce some clouds Saturday afternoon and perhaps even a stray high-mountain shower, but Sunday looks to be mostly cloud-free with warming temperatures as the western ridge rebuilds behind the departing front.
A trough of low pressure crossing the West Coast on Sunday will split, with pieces of the southern portion traveling across the Great Basin on Monday and Tuesday. Some upward motion and limited moisture will allow for the chance of afternoon showers over our area those days under warmer temperatures.
Another splitting Pacific storm approaches the coast around Wednesday with the southern portion forecast to take up residence off the central California coast for the rest of the work week. The southwesterly flow ahead of the lingering trough will once again allow deeper southern moisture to travel over the region, increasing the chance of wetting rains for Wednesday and Thursday.
The northern portion of the split will be slowed as additional Pacific energy reinforces the cool air in the storm and looks to eventually bring another cool front through the area late in the work week or early the following weekend.
Drying trend interrupted midweek and still followed by cool front
Monday, August 8, 2016
A storm currently located in in Washington state will first move east through the Idaho panhandle tomorrow and then northeast to the north of Montana by Wednesday. Energy ejecting from this storm earlier today gave us a couple of rounds of much needed early-morning thunderstorms today.
Additional Pacific energy will travel southwards along the West Coast and keep a trough of low pressure extending from the eventual north-of-Montana low back towards northern California. Ahead of this trough, the drying southwest flow evident this afternoon will continue Tuesday, though there is still a threat of late afternoon storms as lingering moisture is heated by the sun.
The dry Wednesday promised in last Friday’s forecast is in jeopardy as moisture from Tropical Storm Javier, currently located near southern Baja, is drawn northeastward ahead of the California trough. It again looks like the best moisture will remain south of northern Colorado, but there may be enough in proximity to Steamboat Springs to allow for a round of afternoon and evening storms in more humid conditions.
This moisture plume will be quickly shunted to our east as the California trough moves inland and then across the Great Basin on Thursday. Pieces of energy ejecting from this Great Basin trough will likely induce more afternoon storms for Thursday before a cool front moves through the area late Thursday night or early Friday morning.
There is some Pacific moisture within this trough, the first of this late-summer season, and there may be enough upward motion to induce some Friday storms in the relatively cool and unstable northwest flow behind the front.
Though there is mid and upper-level drying behind this trough, trailing energy in northwest flow looks to move over the area on Saturday and may spark another round of weaker afternoon storms. Temperatures should return to normal to above normal by Sunday and heading into the next work week as a flat western ridge builds behind the departing system.
