Pleasant weekend ahead
Thursday, March 7, 2024
Temperatures are in the mid-thirties under partly sunny skies in the town of Steamboat Springs and near freezing at the top of the Steamboat Ski Resort this Thursday at noon. Showers are likely during the afternoons and evenings of today and Friday, though any accumulations are expected to be minor. A pleasant weekend with mostly sunny skies and warmer temperatures looks to be followed by a weak storm early in the work week and a stronger storm around midweek.
Most of the western half of the country is located under a broad and weak trough of low pressure. Several diffuse impulses of energy and moisture are forecast to move through this trough today and Friday leading to afternoon and evening showers for both days. Accumulations look to be minor, in the 1-4” range each period, as heavier showers could leave a quick inch or two if they pass overhead. Locally, the best accumulations look to be to our north toward the Wyoming border and over the Elkhead Mountains, while regionally, the southern and central mountains of Colorado look to receive significant accumulations.
A ridge of high pressure ahead of a complex storm brewing over the Aleutian Islands is forecast to move over the Rockies this weekend thanks to the eastward movement of the storm. There is some weather forecast model disagreement on the proximity of the driest air under the ridge this weekend, with mostly sunny skies expected if the dry air is close and some clouds if the dry air is further away.
High temperatures in town are forecast to cool into the low thirties on Friday, around ten degrees below our rapidly rising average of 42 F, thanks to cooler air associated with the trough, clouds and possible showers. But we should warm to around five degrees below average on Saturday and near average on Sunday as the warm air under the ridge of high pressure settles overhead.
Enjoy the nice weekend since unsettled weather returns for the work week thanks to the approaching Aleutian storm. This storm is forecast to evolve in a complex fashion as several waves of cold air from eastern Siberia interact with the storm over the weekend. Right now, a leading piece of the storm looks to bring light showers to our area later Monday with the bulk of the storm timed for Wednesday and Thursday. So be sure to check back to my next regularly scheduled weather narrative on Sunday afternoon for more details on our next likely significant winter storm next week.
Snow possible every day this work week
Sunday, March 3, 2024
The temperature is near freezing in the town of Steamboat Springs and thirteen degrees at the top of the Steamboat Ski Resort as a snow shower passes through this Sunday mid-afternoon. Snow showers associated with this storm will continue through Monday night before they may or may not stop for a time early Tuesday as moisture lingers behind the departing storm. But the next storm starting later Wednesday keeps chances for snowfall going through Thursday and most of Friday.
A broad and deep area of low pressure currently sits over the West, and a leading wave of moisture and energy that moved overhead starting Saturday evening brought eight inches of snow at mid-mountain and nine inches up top for this Sunday morning ski report.
Unfortunately, strong winds associated with this powerful storm brought gusts as high as 75 mph at the Storm Peak Lab Saturday at 8.45 pm and 64 mph at 1:50 pm this afternoon. Even as the storm rotates to our northeast, additional waves of energy and moisture will continue moving through the storm through Monday afternoon. It looks like another windy afternoon on Monday, though less windy than the last two days, with sustained winds as high as 25 mph and gusts twice that around and after noon.
But the snow showers will continue this overnight, and including the three inches that has already fallen this afternoon in the hour between 4 pm and 5 pm (including two inches in twenty minutes for a six inch per hour snowfall rate!), I would expect 5-10” of snow to be reported on the Monday morning mid-mountain ski report. Showers should continue through the day with an additional 2-5” expected, which would be reported Tuesday morning.
Meanwhile, a small storm in the form of an eddy currently located underneath a ridge of high pressure in the Gulf of Alaska is forecast to move eastward and force most of the current storm to the east as well. Lingering moisture behind the departing storm will allow light snow showers to form in the afternoon and evening leaving 1-4” of snow that would be reported Wednesday morning.
The eddy is forecast to move eastward and mix with some cold air on the western side of the current storm starting Monday night and continuing through the work week. As this occurs, the eddy loses its identity and evolves into a trough of low pressure as it moves through southern California or northern Baja and eventually the Desert Southwest.
Additional cold air from the northwest is forecast to continue mixing with the former eddy, and this keeps a broad, cool and unstable air mass overhead from Wednesday through Friday. There is some weather forecast model disagreement on whether the snow showers stop for a time on Wednesday, though snow showers look likely from later Wednesday through Friday and perhaps into Saturday morning.
There is also disagreement on whether we see some accumulating snowfall from these showers, and when the best accumulations occur. Unless the weather forecast models converge on a significant snowfall event that would be reported Thursday morning and demand a Wednesday update, enjoy the lionlike start to March and I’ll be back with my next regularly scheduled weather narrative on Thursday afternoon.
Strong winter storm to start Saturday night, preceded by high winds
Thursday, February 29, 2024
Temperatures in the town of Steamboat Springs are near freezing under brilliant blue skies this Thursday noon, on their way to around forty degrees. While we may sneak in some more sun on Friday with similar temperatures, a powerful winter storm will first bring clouds and very windy conditions on Saturday before the snows start on Saturday night and persist through the rest of the weekend, and possibly beyond.
A strong and cold storm currently in the Gulf of Alaska is bringing heavy precipitation to the Pacific Northwest and is forecast to begin moving through our area by Saturday night. We may sneak in another nice day on Friday with some passing clouds, breezy winds and high temperatures in the low forties, just above our average high temperatures of 39 F.
Similar temperatures are forecast for Saturday under overcast skies, but increasingly windy conditions are forecast with mountain-top winds averaging as high as 30 mph with gusts approaching 70 mph by the afternoon that will continue into the evening.
Weather forecast models are still struggling with the mid-weekend storm, but right now it looks like the storm will move over our area in pieces, with the first piece bringing a cold front through our area Saturday night and starting the snows that will continue through the day Sunday.
We could see 5-10” of snow by the Sunday morning ski report at mid-mountain, with another 3-6” falling during the day, and half that in town. Winds will decrease on Sunday, but still remain stout from the west as the leading edge of the storm passes to our northeast. High temperatures in town will fall into the upper twenties with upper teens expected near the top of the Steamboat Ski Resort.
The main part of the storm is forecast to move through our area later Monday, though the southern extent of the storm and its proximity to our area are still uncertain. There is a chance that the cold front associated with the main storm may stall near or over our area on Monday, continuing moderate to heavy snows during the day, or graze our area to the north. If it snows hard on Monday, snow showers look to taper off overnight and be followed by a very cold Tuesday morning.
The early work week weather forecast is subject to change in the coming days, so be sure to check back to my next regularly scheduled weather narrative on Sunday afternoon for updates on this powerful winter storm that may start the work week.
Significant winter storm to start warm on Monday and end cold by Wednesday
Sunday, February 25, 2024
Temperatures are approaching thirty degrees on their way to forty degrees under brilliant blue skies this Sunday noon in Steamboat Springs. Enjoy the pleasant weather today since a strong and complex winter storm will start warm on Monday with high winds and a possible wintry precipitation mix in town. A cold front arriving early Tuesday will be accompanied by possible snow squalls and difficult driving conditions during the day with total accumulations between ten and twenty inches expected at the Steamboat Ski Resort by a cold Wednesday morning, and half that in town. Skies should clear on Wednesday with warming temperatures starting Thursday and continuing into the weekend.
An eddy of low pressure is currently located off the coast of central California while an intensifying and cold storm is moving southeastward through the Gulf of Alaska. Both storms are attended by atmospheric rivers, with the eddy grabbing moisture from near Hawaii in the so-called Pineapple Express.
Weather forecast models are still struggling with the interaction between these two storms, but right now at least a piece of the eddy is forecast to merge with the very cold Gulf of Alaska storm over the Great Basin on Monday. Energy and moisture ejecting out ahead of the leading piece of the eddy will bring cloudy skies by early Monday morning with possible showers breaking out during the day, along with winds as high as thirty miles per hour gusting to sixty miles per hour from the west and southwest by the afternoon. While we could see some snow on the hill during the day, precipitation in town may be a rain-snow mix especially if it falls in the afternoon.
A cold front associated with the Gulf of Alaska storm is forecast to move through our area between midnight and Tuesday morning. Expect the high temperature of the day to occur at midnight, with temperatures near the top of the hill falling into the single digits by sunset and temperatures in town falling into the teens.
Snowfall rates will become heavy along and behind the cold front with possible snow squalls and thunder-snow thanks to the high winds and unstable atmosphere. Snowfall rates between one and two inches per hour, or even higher, are expected at times through the morning and into the afternoon, thankfully along with decreasing winds. We could see 3-6” by the Tuesday morning mid-mountain ski report with an additional 6-12” falling during the day, and half that in town.
Cold temperatures around zero degrees are forecast for Wednesday morning at all elevations, around ten degrees below the average low temperature in town of twelve degrees. And as is often the case behind storms from the northwest, favorable northwest winds, lingering moisture and an unstable atmosphere could leave another 1-4” overnight.
Meanwhile, another large and cold storm is forecast to form in the Gulf of Alaska by midweek. While we likely won’t see precipitation from this storm until late in the weekend or early the following week, winds will turn to be first from the west behind the departing storm on Wednesday and southwest ahead of the approaching storm by Thursday. While Wednesday will still be on the chilly side with high temperatures in town relegated to the mid to upper twenties, around fifteen degrees below our average of 39 F, we should be near average on Thursday, and into the low forties by Friday as the southwest winds carry warmer air over Colorado.
Enjoy the weather whiplash to start the work week, and be sure to check back to my next regularly scheduled weather narrative on Thursday afternoon where I’ll have more details about the start of the weekend and our next significant winter storm including whether it looks to arrive on Sunday or Monday.
Beautiful weekend on tap
Thursday, February 22, 2024
The nine and a half inches of new snow at mid-mountain and fifteen inches up top at the Steamboat Ski Resort that was reported this Thursday morning has been augmented by around two inches of snow that continued to fall through the morning. Peeks of sunshine have appeared this mid-afternoon as temperatures hovered around freezing in the town of Steamboat Springs. There may be some snow showers around tonight but mostly sunny skies should be overhead by Friday afternoon and last through a beautiful weekend ahead of another possibly significant winter storm starting as soon as Monday.
A ridge of high pressure currently centered over Nevada has built ahead of a storm in the form of an eddy off the coast of northern California. The eddy is forecast to move southwest and loiter off the coast of central California through the weekend. Additionally, a wave of cold air from eastern Siberia is forecast to quickly move across the northern Pacific through the weekend before mixing with more cold air sourced from near the Arctic Circle in western Canada on Sunday.
Lingering moisture in our favorable winds from the northwest in advance of the Nevada ridge of high pressure may keep higher elevation snow showers going this evening with an additional 1-4” possible overnight.
The ridge of high pressure is then forecast to briefly flatten thanks to a storm moving across western Canada on Saturday before reforming over the Desert Southwest for the weekend. While the California eddy is eventually forecast to ingest some tropical moisture late in the weekend, the warm and dry southwest flow ahead of the eddy until then will bring mostly sunny skies to our area by Friday afternoon that will persist through the weekend. After another day of high temperatures in the low thirties on Friday, they will warm into the upper thirties on Saturday and low forties on Sunday which is around five degrees above our average of 37 F.
Enjoy the beautiful weekend since a winter storm is advertised to start as early as Monday. While weather forecast models agree that the Siberian wave will intensify as it mixes with more cold air from western Canada and also agree that the wave will eventually force the California eddy into the West, they disagree on the details of this interaction. There is a chance that tropical moisture from the eddy will overrun the cold Siberian air which would eventually bring significant low-density powder to our area. So be sure to check back to my next regularly scheduled weather narrative on Sunday afternoon to see how the storm is shaping up and how much snow we may expect.
