Showers likely ahead of cool front to arrive Wednesday
Sunday, September 1, 2024
Steamboat Springs is enjoying a gorgeous Labor Day weekend, with temperatures approaching eighty degrees under cloudless skies this Sunday noon. A trickle of monsoon moisture will bring some clouds later today and more clouds on Monday afternoon, with only the slightest chance of an afternoon shower on Labor Day. A passing storm will bring a better chance of showers later Tuesday and Wednesday as a cool front sweeps through the region before sunny weather returns for the end of the work week and heading into the following weekend.
A ridge of high pressure over the West is flanked by broad areas of low pressure over Hudson Bay and the Gulf of Alaska, and an eddy of low pressure just off the northern California coast. A wave of energy moving through the Gulf of Alaska will force both the eddy and ridge of high pressure eastward, eventually merging with the eddy on Labor Day as it crosses the West Coast.
As the high pressure moves east, monsoonal moisture will be carried northward by southerly winds on the backside of the high. This will be nothing like the monsoon events of August, which ended up leaving almost a half-inch more moisture than our monthly average of 1.8”, but will be more of a trickle, creating some clouds this afternoon and more clouds and a small chance of a passing shower later on Labor Day. Clouds and showers will be more likely closer to the source of the monsoon moisture to our south.
But the clouds won’t derail our high temperatures, expected to be in the low-eighties through Tuesday, almost five degrees above our falling average of 78 F. By late Tuesday, the eddy is forecast to be moving through Idaho, bringing a better chance of some late-day showers that could last through the night.
As the eddy moves through Wyoming on Wednesday, a cool front will graze our area, continuing the chance of showers and dropping our high temperature into the mid-seventies. There is dry air behind the front, so showers should quickly end, though there is some weather forecast model disagreement on whether that occurs in the afternoon or evening.
Clearing skies after a cool front means we can look forward to a cool Thursday morning with temperatures in the upper-thirties, around our average of 39 F, similar to the setup last Friday morning when the low temperature reached a chilly 36 F behind a grazing cool front. But the sunny days return with continued high temperatures in the mid-seventies, and look to last into the coming weekend as a ridge of high pressure rebuilds over the West behind the passing midweek disturbance.
Enjoy the pleasant weather for the rest of the long Labor Day weekend, and check back to my next regularly scheduled weather narrative on Thursday afternoon to see how long the dry weather may stick around.
Spectacular weather to continue through most of Labor Day weekend
Thursday, August 29, 2024
Bluebird skies, breezes from the west and northwest, and temperatures in the upper-seventies are gracing the Steamboat Springs area this Thursday mid-afternoon. Temperatures will slowly rise to the low-eighties under sunny skies by Saturday which should mark the warmest day of the upcoming week. Moisture is then forecast to begin increasing on Sunday, bringing some afternoon clouds, with more moisture on Monday bringing more clouds and perhaps even slim shower chances.
A storm cruising across the southern Canadian Prairies is responsible for the breezy conditions and cooler temperatures than yesterday, which officially reached 83 F, a bit warmer than our average of 79 F. But a ridge of high pressure behind the storm and ahead of another storm strengthening over the Aleutian Islands is forecast to build over the West through the weekend, bringing more sunny skies and warming temperatures that will again be almost five degrees above average on Saturday.
The dry air overhead has also resulted in cool mornings with temperatures around our average of 40 F as there is sparse moisture aloft to trap the surface heat. That begins to change by Sunday as the ridge of high pressure is forced eastward by the eastward-moving Aleutian storm. Additionally, a piece of the Canadian Plains storm, left behind over the eastern Pacific in the form of an eddy, is forecast to make landfall near the border between California and Oregon on Labor Day.
The result will be a trickle of monsoonal moisture entering our area by Sunday for some afternoon clouds, and continuing on Labor Day for more afternoon clouds and only the slightest chance for a late-day shower. High temperatures will drop a degree or two on Sunday, and that again on Monday toward average as clouds block some sunshine. But the increasing moisture will also modestly insulate the earth’s surface and allow low temperatures to warm into the mid-forties.
So enjoy the spectacular weather through much of the long Labor Day weekend, and check back to my next regularly scheduled weather narrative on Sunday afternoon to see if the showers stay away for the ubiquitous Labor Day barbeques.
Gorgeous weather to follow the last round of showers tonight
Sunday, August 25, 2024
Temperatures are in the mid-sixties early this Sunday evening in Steamboat Springs under cloudy skies after touching seventy degrees this afternoon. We were close to that by mid-morning before thunderstorms dropped our temperatures by over ten degrees in fifteen minutes. Tonight will be our last active period with likely showers before dry air behind a grazing cool front brings mostly sunny skies and warming temperatures through the work week.
An elongated and weakening storm across the West has conspired with monsoonal moisture carried northward around the backside of a ridge of high pressure over the East to bring five straight days of rain to our area, with just over a half-inch falling so far, not including today. The storm is moving to the northeast and weakening, but not before bringing some more showers through sunrise Monday.
Dry air behind the storm will move overhead on Monday for a very pleasant and mostly sunny day with high temperatures in the low seventies, more than five degrees below our average of eighty degrees. An eastward-moving storm currently in the Gulf of Alaska will keep our current storm moving, allowing the ridge of high pressure to squirt back westward. So, more gorgeous weather is expected with mostly sunny skies and temperatures reaching the upper seventies on Tuesday and around eighty degrees on Wednesday.
Meanwhile, that Gulf of Alaska storm is forecast to cross Vancouver on Tuesday and Montana on Wednesday, dragging a weak and dry cool front near our area on Thursday. Temperatures might drop by a few degrees, but the mostly sunny skies will remain.
The ridge of high pressure is forecast to build over the West behind the storm for a gorgeous start to the long Labor Day weekend. There is uncertainty regarding the placement and orientation of the ridge, with some weather forecast models bringing monsoonal moisture back to our area during the long weekend while others keep us dry.
Enjoy what promises to be a spectacular stretch of weather heading into the holiday weekend, and check back to my next regularly scheduled weather narrative on Thursday afternoon to see if the moisture stays away for the weekend festivities.
Good rain chances to bookend the weekend
Thursday, August 22, 2024
Temperatures reached the low-to-mid seventies early this Thursday afternoon and have fallen into the mid-sixties late this afternoon after a passing shower. Continued abundant monsoonal moisture may allow for another shower today with better chances on Friday before activity may decrease for a time on Saturday. But Sunday looks like another active day as the first fall-like cool front of the season approaches our area.
A ridge of high pressure is currently located over most of the country save for two strong troughs of low pressure located over the Pacific Northwest and the Northeast. The Pacific Northwest storm has already nudged the center of the high pressure towards Texas and the southwest winds ahead of the storm and on the backside of the high pressure have brought abundant monsoonal moisture into the region, highlighted by a brief but strong thunderstorm yesterday afternoon that dropped between three and four-tenths of an inch of rain around town in about fifteen minutes.
The cloudy morning has limited the sunshine today, leading to the pleasantly cool but humid weather with the relative humidity late this afternoon around seventy percent, well above the twenty percent recorded early on Wednesday afternoon. We may see another shower early this evening before the next round of showers could pass through early Friday morning thanks to some storms brewing over northeast Arizona.
Clouds associated with those possible showers may delay additional storms from forming until later in the day, and good shower chances will continue through the night as high temperatures on Friday again reach the mid-seventies, about five degrees below our average of 81 F.
By Saturday, the Pacific Northwest trough is forecast to elongate southward, with the northern end moving into Alberta and the southern end pinwheeling into Nevada. There is a slot of dry air ahead of the trough which may decrease the storm activity during the morning and early afternoon, though late-afternoon and evening showers may still be possible with high temperatures a degree or two warmer than Friday.
By Sunday, the trough is forecast to weaken with the southern part moving slowly toward our area, eventually bringing the first fall-like cool front through our area later in the day or early Monday. Another active day is forecast with stronger storms possible ahead of the front after noon, with high temperatures struggling to reach seventy degrees.
Snow levels are forecast to fall below 13,000′ by Monday morning, so if the precipitation can last through Sunday night, a dusting of snow may adorn the highest peaks of the Zirkels. But there is some uncertainty regarding the timing and strength of the cool front, and I’ll have more details about that in my next regularly scheduled weather narrative on Sunday afternoon.
Tuesday to be the warmest and driest day of the workweek
Sunday, August 18, 2024
Temperatures are in the comfortable mid-seventies under mostly sunny skies early this Sunday mid-afternoon in Steamboat Springs. We should see a pleasant day today with showers holding off until mid-evening before becoming more sporadic overnight. Storm chances will hang around on Monday before taking a break on Tuesday, resuming on Wednesday and continuing through the rest of the work week.
A ridge of high pressure over the Rockies is sandwiched between areas of low pressure centered just off the Pacific Northwest coast and the Ohio River Valley. Monsoonal moisture has been carried over our area from the south thanks to the southerly winds on the backside of the clockwise circulation around the high, with only some light and scattered showers around town starting late yesterday afternoon.
A well-defined wave rotating around the high is currently entering Utah and will be over our area around mid-evening. So look for dry skies this afternoon with high temperatures in the low-eighties, right around our falling average of 81 F, before the showers associated with the wave start this mid-evening and become more sporadic after midnight.
More thunderstorms are possible on Monday after noon, though short-range models currently have the best activity just to our south. A downturn in storm activity is expected on Tuesday as the southern end of the ridge briefly squirts westward thanks to the strengthening of the Ohio River Valley low pressure area, temporarily severing the tap of monsoonal moisture. Look for low storm chances with plenty of sun and high temperatures a few degrees above average.
Meanwhile, a strong storm over the Bering Sea has incorporated some cold air from the North Pole, and will split as it moves across the Gulf of Alaska early in the week. The southern end of the storm is forecast to drop along the British Columbia coast through midweek which will dislodge the existing low pressure area over the Pacific Northwest across the northern Rockies and nudge the high pressure ridge back to the east.
Monsoonal moisture will once again be carried overhead in the southerly winds on the backside of the high pressure, and will conspire with the southern end of the northeastward-moving Pacific Northwest storm to create good chances of strong storms by Wednesday afternoon and continuing overnight.
Trailing energy will keep the storm chances around through at least Thursday and Friday as temperatures cool into the mid-seventies.
There is weather forecast model uncertainty for the weekend related to how strong the British Columbia storm will be and how quickly it moves east and toward our area. A faster storm will clear the moisture from our area early in the weekend while a slower storm may allow the moisture and storm chances to stick around on Saturday. In any event, the storm looks strong enough to bring the first fall-like cool front through our area sometime next weekend.
So enjoy the summery start to the work week, keep your Gore-Tex handy for the showers starting midweek, and check back to my next regularly scheduled weather narrative on Thursday afternoon for more details on our first fall-like cool front of the season.
