Modest shower chances through midweek ahead of dry cool front around Friday
Sunday, September 8, 2024
Temperatures are in the mid-sixties under sunny skies late this Sunday morning in Steamboat Springs. Mostly sunny skies with only the slightest chance of a late-day shower will last through the start of the workweek with high temperatures around eighty degrees. Wednesday will see better chances for some afternoon and evening storms thanks to an approaching storm that will weaken as it approaches our area. Winds will pick up on Thursday and Friday ahead of and behind a dry cool front forecast for Friday.
A ridge of high pressure over most of the country is sandwiched between two areas of deep low pressure over the Gulf of Alaska and the Northeast while a much weaker storm is moving across Idaho. The weak storm will flatten the ridge over the Rocky Mountains and introduce a trickle of Pacific moisture which will do little to temper the near eighty-degree high temperatures through Tuesday, several degrees above our average of 76 F. But we should see some increasing afternoon clouds through then with only slight chances of a passing shower.
Unfortunately, the NOAA Smoke plume forecast shows winds rotating around the high to carry some smoke from the Line wildfire in the San Bernardino Mountains east of Los Angeles towards and possibly over our area, with hazy skies predicted for Monday. The forecast runs four times a day and extends to forty-eight hours, so check that to see if the hazy skies persist.
By Wednesday, the Gulf of Alaska storm is forecast to deepen as it moves over the Pacific Northwest. Energy ejecting out of the storm is forecast to move overhead on Wednesday bringing better Pacific moisture and good chances for some afternoon and evening storms. High temperatures will drop to several degrees below average thanks to the increasing cloud cover.
By Thursday, the ridge will be considerably weakened as it deflects the storm through Idaho. The Pacific moisture from Wednesday will replaced with dry air from the Desert Southwest as winds increase from the southwest. As mostly sunny skies return, high temperatures will rebound by several degrees from Wednesday.
But the weakened ridge will win this battle as the approaching storm is further deflected into Montana by Friday, dragging a dry cool front through our area sometime between late Thursday and Friday. Breezy and dry weather will make Friday feel like our second fall-like day of the season with high temperatures struggling to reach seventy degrees.
And as usual a day after a cool front, Saturday morning low temperatures will likely be the coolest of the season so far, approaching freezing in the low-lying areas of the Yampa Valley. Next weekend currently looks gorgeous with sunny skies and high temperatures back to average. However, another storm currently near Japan may bring a storm strong enough to defeat the ridge early in the following workweek and bring the first snow of the season to the top of the Steamboat Ski Resort.
Enjoy the late-summer start to the week as the colors of fall are starting to appear in the trees and underbrush around the area, and check back to my next regularly scheduled weather narrative on Thursday afternoon for more details on the weekend weather and the approaching storm.
Weekend to see mostly sunny skies and eighty-degree temperatures
Thursday, September 5, 2024
It’s starting to feel fall-like in Steamboat Springs after storms associated with the cool front yesterday brought as much as a half-inch of precipitation to parts of town and temperatures reaching only about seventy degrees by this Thursday mid-afternoon. But mostly sunny skies with temperatures warming to around eighty degrees will be with us through the weekend with only the slightest chance of late-day showers after Friday.
We are starting to see the battle of the air masses play out over our area as cold air from the northern latitudes encroaches on the warm air over the mid-latitudes. The air behind yesterday’s cool front will quickly modify this weekend as a ridge of high pressure rebuilds over the West. High temperatures will warm to near our average of 77 F on Friday and around eighty degrees on Saturday under mostly sunny skies, with low temperatures near our average of 39 F.
Pacific energy rotating through a broad area of low pressure over the Gulf of Alaska will weaken as it crosses the West Coast on Saturday and interacts with the ridge of high pressure. There may be a trickle of Pacific moisture and perhaps monsoonal moisture as the high pressure gets nudged eastward, but dry air over our area will limit its effects to some afternoon clouds and only the slightest chance of a shower that would produce more wind than rain.
Another storm currently over the Bering Sea is forecast to split to some degree over the Gulf of Alaska during the weekend, and as it moves eastward it will also push the weakening West Coast storm eastward. There may be a slightly better chance of late-day showers to start the workweek as moisture modestly increases, but significant rain currently looks unlikely.
So enjoy the beautiful first weekend of meteorological fall, which runs from September through November, and check back to my next regularly scheduled weather narrative on Sunday afternoon for more details on the moisture to start next week.
Showers likely ahead of cool front to arrive Wednesday
Sunday, September 1, 2024
Steamboat Springs is enjoying a gorgeous Labor Day weekend, with temperatures approaching eighty degrees under cloudless skies this Sunday noon. A trickle of monsoon moisture will bring some clouds later today and more clouds on Monday afternoon, with only the slightest chance of an afternoon shower on Labor Day. A passing storm will bring a better chance of showers later Tuesday and Wednesday as a cool front sweeps through the region before sunny weather returns for the end of the work week and heading into the following weekend.
A ridge of high pressure over the West is flanked by broad areas of low pressure over Hudson Bay and the Gulf of Alaska, and an eddy of low pressure just off the northern California coast. A wave of energy moving through the Gulf of Alaska will force both the eddy and ridge of high pressure eastward, eventually merging with the eddy on Labor Day as it crosses the West Coast.
As the high pressure moves east, monsoonal moisture will be carried northward by southerly winds on the backside of the high. This will be nothing like the monsoon events of August, which ended up leaving almost a half-inch more moisture than our monthly average of 1.8”, but will be more of a trickle, creating some clouds this afternoon and more clouds and a small chance of a passing shower later on Labor Day. Clouds and showers will be more likely closer to the source of the monsoon moisture to our south.
But the clouds won’t derail our high temperatures, expected to be in the low-eighties through Tuesday, almost five degrees above our falling average of 78 F. By late Tuesday, the eddy is forecast to be moving through Idaho, bringing a better chance of some late-day showers that could last through the night.
As the eddy moves through Wyoming on Wednesday, a cool front will graze our area, continuing the chance of showers and dropping our high temperature into the mid-seventies. There is dry air behind the front, so showers should quickly end, though there is some weather forecast model disagreement on whether that occurs in the afternoon or evening.
Clearing skies after a cool front means we can look forward to a cool Thursday morning with temperatures in the upper-thirties, around our average of 39 F, similar to the setup last Friday morning when the low temperature reached a chilly 36 F behind a grazing cool front. But the sunny days return with continued high temperatures in the mid-seventies, and look to last into the coming weekend as a ridge of high pressure rebuilds over the West behind the passing midweek disturbance.
Enjoy the pleasant weather for the rest of the long Labor Day weekend, and check back to my next regularly scheduled weather narrative on Thursday afternoon to see how long the dry weather may stick around.
Spectacular weather to continue through most of Labor Day weekend
Thursday, August 29, 2024
Bluebird skies, breezes from the west and northwest, and temperatures in the upper-seventies are gracing the Steamboat Springs area this Thursday mid-afternoon. Temperatures will slowly rise to the low-eighties under sunny skies by Saturday which should mark the warmest day of the upcoming week. Moisture is then forecast to begin increasing on Sunday, bringing some afternoon clouds, with more moisture on Monday bringing more clouds and perhaps even slim shower chances.
A storm cruising across the southern Canadian Prairies is responsible for the breezy conditions and cooler temperatures than yesterday, which officially reached 83 F, a bit warmer than our average of 79 F. But a ridge of high pressure behind the storm and ahead of another storm strengthening over the Aleutian Islands is forecast to build over the West through the weekend, bringing more sunny skies and warming temperatures that will again be almost five degrees above average on Saturday.
The dry air overhead has also resulted in cool mornings with temperatures around our average of 40 F as there is sparse moisture aloft to trap the surface heat. That begins to change by Sunday as the ridge of high pressure is forced eastward by the eastward-moving Aleutian storm. Additionally, a piece of the Canadian Plains storm, left behind over the eastern Pacific in the form of an eddy, is forecast to make landfall near the border between California and Oregon on Labor Day.
The result will be a trickle of monsoonal moisture entering our area by Sunday for some afternoon clouds, and continuing on Labor Day for more afternoon clouds and only the slightest chance for a late-day shower. High temperatures will drop a degree or two on Sunday, and that again on Monday toward average as clouds block some sunshine. But the increasing moisture will also modestly insulate the earth’s surface and allow low temperatures to warm into the mid-forties.
So enjoy the spectacular weather through much of the long Labor Day weekend, and check back to my next regularly scheduled weather narrative on Sunday afternoon to see if the showers stay away for the ubiquitous Labor Day barbeques.
Gorgeous weather to follow the last round of showers tonight
Sunday, August 25, 2024
Temperatures are in the mid-sixties early this Sunday evening in Steamboat Springs under cloudy skies after touching seventy degrees this afternoon. We were close to that by mid-morning before thunderstorms dropped our temperatures by over ten degrees in fifteen minutes. Tonight will be our last active period with likely showers before dry air behind a grazing cool front brings mostly sunny skies and warming temperatures through the work week.
An elongated and weakening storm across the West has conspired with monsoonal moisture carried northward around the backside of a ridge of high pressure over the East to bring five straight days of rain to our area, with just over a half-inch falling so far, not including today. The storm is moving to the northeast and weakening, but not before bringing some more showers through sunrise Monday.
Dry air behind the storm will move overhead on Monday for a very pleasant and mostly sunny day with high temperatures in the low seventies, more than five degrees below our average of eighty degrees. An eastward-moving storm currently in the Gulf of Alaska will keep our current storm moving, allowing the ridge of high pressure to squirt back westward. So, more gorgeous weather is expected with mostly sunny skies and temperatures reaching the upper seventies on Tuesday and around eighty degrees on Wednesday.
Meanwhile, that Gulf of Alaska storm is forecast to cross Vancouver on Tuesday and Montana on Wednesday, dragging a weak and dry cool front near our area on Thursday. Temperatures might drop by a few degrees, but the mostly sunny skies will remain.
The ridge of high pressure is forecast to build over the West behind the storm for a gorgeous start to the long Labor Day weekend. There is uncertainty regarding the placement and orientation of the ridge, with some weather forecast models bringing monsoonal moisture back to our area during the long weekend while others keep us dry.
Enjoy what promises to be a spectacular stretch of weather heading into the holiday weekend, and check back to my next regularly scheduled weather narrative on Thursday afternoon to see if the moisture stays away for the weekend festivities.
