Temperatures to cool with good rain chances lasting through the weekend
Thursday, August 8, 2024
Clouds have invaded the Steamboat Springs area early this Thursday afternoon with comfortable temperatures in the mid-seventies. These clouds herald the arrival of monsoonal moisture which will keep high temperatures around eighty degrees and allow for good rain chances through the weekend and into the following workweek.
The jet stream is currently oriented over the northern two-thirds of the U.S., separating cool air centered over the upper Midwest from a flat ridge of hot high pressure over the southern half of the country, save for the remnants of Tropical Storm Debbie currently over the Carolinas. Luckily, the high temperatures of 92 F over last weekend, which on Saturday was one degree shy of the record 93 F set in 2000, have been replaced by cooler air under the jet stream with high temperatures near eighty degrees forecast through the week, comfortably below our average of 83 F.
Additionally, monsoonal moisture rotating around the high pressure cell over the Southwest has approached us from the west. Modest rain chances will start later today and possibly Friday, but become likely through the weekend and into next week. Rain chances on Friday are uncertain thanks to a pocket of dry air currently centered over the Great Salt Lake that may or may not be close enough to reduce the chance of storms.
The proximity of the jet stream will allow ripples in the flow to interact with the monsoonal moisture, encouraging storms even at night. Any storm may produce brief moderate to heavy rain, small hail and gusty winds.
Lastly, the NOAA Smoke Plume Model shows smoke from California wildfires in and out of our area over at least the next 48 hours which may affect air quality. That model is updated four times a day, so make your own forecasts through the weekend by clicking the View All button and then checking the Animate checkbox at the top of the map screen.
Enjoy the cooler weekend, hope for the rains to come and the smoke to stay away, and check back to my next regularly scheduled weather narrative on Sunday afternoon for details on how long this monsoonal moisture surge may last.
Workweek to see modest shower chances with temperatures to peak near ninety degrees on Tuesday
Sunday, August 4, 2024
After a relatively cool morning with occasional sprinkles, temperatures are only in the mid-seventies this Sunday mid-afternoon in Steamboat Springs under recently cleared and mostly sunny skies. Modest shower chances reappear later today and continue through the work week along with hot temperatures peaking near ninety degrees on a dry Tuesday. But there is hope for a cooler and wetter weather pattern starting around Thursday and continuing through next weekend.
Those infernal easterly winds I talked about in the last weather narrative did appear at the top and near the base of the Steamboat Ski Resort last night, as shown by the accompanying temperature and wind charts from the SnowAlarm weather station and the Storm Peak Laboratory near the top of Mt. Werner
Wind direction is indicated by the red dots in the second chart, with winds having an easterly component denoted in the lower half of the chart and winds with a westerly component in the upper half. The vertical gray line in the center of both upper charts marks 12:05 am on August 4th.
Infernal, since temperatures rose from 69 F to 80 F in about twenty minutes starting at 9:30 pm and stayed elevated until just before 2 am thanks to the gusty easterly winds warming as they descended the Park Range. Interestingly, the Bob Adams airport was spared and downtown showed only about five degrees of warming. Fortunately, no smoke from the Front Range wildfires was carried over our area.
A ridge of high pressure currently over most of the U.S. has been flattened by a series of cool waves moving across Canada, but those waves will not be close enough to moderate the hot temperatures forecast for our area through midweek. The sun today will allow high temperatures to reach the mid to upper eighties, about five degrees above our now slowly falling daily average, and cook the atmosphere, returning modest shower chances later this afternoon and evening.
A degree of warming is forecast for Monday with afternoon and evening thunderstorm chances persisting, along with another bout of nighttime easterly winds advertised by some weather forecast models. Another degree of warming should bring high temperatures to around ninety degrees on Tuesday as winds shift from the southwest to the west thanks to the Canadian waves. These westerly winds look to bring dry air overhead and reduce or eliminate showers for the day.
But moisture returns by Wednesday as some energy left behind by the Canadian waves merges with some energy ejecting from a strong series of storms over the Aleutian Islands and begins to dig southward along the West Coast. Temperatures will see a degree or two of cooling with later-day shower chances.
Cool air associated with the Canadian waves begins infiltrating our area by Thursday for high temperatures in the mid-eighties and a better chance of storms. Monsoonal moisture is reinforced starting Friday as the developing West Coast trough of low pressure nudges the western ridge of high pressure eastward, with temperatures cooling to average on Friday with good chances for storms.
Longer-range weather forecast models have even cooler and unsettled weather persisting through the weekend and into the beginning of the next workweek. Enjoy another very summery start to this week, and check back to my next regularly scheduled weather narrative on Thursday afternoon for more details on the coming moisture.
This weekend to stay hot with some shower chances by later Sunday
Thursday, August 1, 2024
That the heart of the summer is upon us is underscored by the 89 F temperature this Thursday mid-afternoon in Steamboat Springs under sunny skies. The mercury will rise a degree or two through Saturday with precipitation chances near nil until Sunday afternoon when a trickle of moisture may lead to a late-day shower and high temperatures falling back into the upper eighties.
A monstrous ridge of high pressure is over the West and almost directly centered over Colorado. High temperatures just above ninety degrees, over five degrees above our average of 84 F, are forecast for Friday and Saturday, with a shot at breaking the Saturday record high temperatures of 93 F set in 2000.
There is a chance that we may see some light winds from the east at times over the weekend as air rotates clockwise around the center of the ridge. This could be significant if it occurs as it may transport smoke from fires burning in the Front Range foothills over our area, though the latest NOAA smoke plume forecast has backed away from the scenario in its latest iteration. The model is run four times a day, so make your own forecast by clicking the View All button and then checking the Animate checkbox at the top of the map screen.
Otherwise, some monsoonal moisture has been pulled northwards over southern California and the Desert Southwest, and eventually may be carried over our area later Sunday for some clouds, a couple of degrees of cooling and modest chances for an afternoon or evening shower.
Those shower chances may persist to start the workweek as temperatures slowly moderate. Better chances may arrive by midweek as a wave of energy breaks away from a strong storm spinning south of the Aleutian Islands and interacts with the high pressure ridge over the West.
So enjoy the hot days and cool nights of the peak of summer, and check back to my next regularly scheduled weather narrative on Sunday afternoon for an update on our shower chances next week.
Workweek to see mostly sunny skies and increasingly hot temperatures
Sunday, July 28, 2024
After receiving between a quarter and half an inch of rain yesterday, sunny skies are over the Steamboat Springs area early this Sunday afternoon. Other than some smoke that may be transported to our area from a large wildfire complex burning in California’s Sequoia National Forest to start the workweek, expect mostly sunny skies with cool overnight lows and increasingly hot afternoon temperatures approaching ninety degrees by Friday.
A broad area of low pressure over the West Coast has suppressed the ridge of high pressure that was over the West for much of July. Several waves have rotated through this trough and across the West and conspired with some monsoonal moisture to bring measurable rain to our area on Thursday and Saturday. Rainfall was spotty on Thursday, with the official weather station near the Steamboat Springs High School recording 0.21” even as areas around the mountain recorded only several hundredths. But coverage was more widespread and substantial yesterday, with between a quarter and a half an inch of rain recorded across town from several rounds of thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening.
Winds from the southwest ahead of the trough have replaced the monsoonal moisture with dry air, allowing our low temperature to drop a bit below our average of 46 F last night. Unfortunately, these southwest winds may allow smoke from a wildfire in California’s Sequoia National Forest to encroach on our area from later today through tomorrow according to the NOAA smoke plume model.
So expect mostly sunny skies with high temperatures around our average of 84 F today and a few degrees of warming to start the workweek. Meanwhile, the West Coast trough is forecast to move inland and cross Idaho on Tuesday, and Wyoming and Montana on Wednesday. While we may see a degree of cooling and some breezes as the trough grazes our area on Wednesday, the bigger impact will be in subsequent days as the suppressed ridge of high pressure rebounds over the West behind the departing trough and allows high temperatures to reach the upper-eighties on Thursday and close to ninety degrees on Friday.
There is very little hope of precipitation until the weekend when we may see some monsoonal moisture return as it rotates around the high pressure ridge over the West. Enjoy the classic summertime weather this week and hope for the smoke to stay away, and check back to my next regularly scheduled weather narrative on Thursday afternoon for more details about the possible return of moisture.
Cooler temperatures to start Friday accompanied by shower chances through Saturday
Thursday, July 25, 2024
The temperature has reached 88 F this Thursday mid-afternoon in Steamboat Springs under mostly sunny but hazy skies. The wildfire smoke from California and the Pacific Northwest should diminish as an approaching cool front drops temperatures into the low eighties on Friday, clearing the smoke from the area and bringing thunderstorm chances that continue through Saturday.
A vortex of low pressure currently centered over central Alberta has disrupted the high pressure ridge over the West, and waves of energy traveling around the vortex will shift our winds to be from the west and southwest starting tonight. Compared to the high temperatures above our average of 84 F the last few days, high temperatures will drop into the comfortable low eighties starting Friday and continuing through the weekend. Fortunately, the NOAA smoke model, which I have started posting again, shows the smoke clearing from our area behind the first wave tonight.
The southern end of these waves will also introduce moisture to our area, bringing moderate shower chances lasting from this evening through Saturday. This includes nocturnal, or overnight showers for tonight and Friday nights that may last into the morning. A short-range weather forecast model predicts clearing later each morning, and any sun that appears will cook the atmosphere and contribute to stronger afternoon and evening thunderstorms on Friday and Saturday. The localized stronger varieties will be able to produce brief moderate to heavy rain, gusty winds and small hail.
Even as the Alberta vortex moves across the central Canadian Plains through the weekend, trailing energy from the Gulf of Alaska keeps a general trough of low pressure over the northern two-thirds of the West Coast through the weekend. Much drier air from the southwest is introduced to our area by Sunday for a very pleasant day with low storm chances.
As the Alberta storm continues to move eastward, the temporarily vanquished ridge of high pressure rebuilds over the West, bringing warmer temperatures in the mid-eighties with very little chance of precipitation to start the work week.
Precipitation amounts are generally underwhelming through Saturday and forecast to be around a tenth of an inch or two, save for the localized storms which are impossible to predict, especially this far in advance. So enjoy the cooldown, hope for some productive storms and check back to my next regularly scheduled weather narrative on Sunday afternoon.
