Snow chances to last through Christmas week
Sunday, December 22, 2024
Temperatures have warmed toward thirty degrees in Steamboat Springs under mostly sunny skies late this Sunday morning, matching the temperature near the top of the Steamboat Ski Resort. This stretch of beautiful weather ends today as a series of Pacific waves brings snowfall chances to our area starting tonight and lasting through Christmas week, with a dry Tuesday facilitating any Christmas Eve travel.
A storm deflected into Montana has weakened the ridge of high pressure over the West which was responsible for our beautiful weather through the winter solstice, which occurred at 2:21 am on Saturday and marked the longest night of the year. However, a sprawling low pressure area extends southward from the Gulf of Alaska and westward to Siberia, and a series of waves traveling along the low pressure’s southern boundary will tap areas of subtropical moisture as they travel eastward across the Pacific.
The first wave of the holiday week will be the weakest and bring increasing clouds through the rest of today. Light snow showers could begin as soon as midnight tonight and continue through Monday evening, with maybe an inch or two possible by the Monday morning ski report at mid-mountain according to the more optimistic weather forecast model, and an additional 1-4” possible by Tuesday morning.
A brief ridge of high pressure will bring periods of sun on Tuesday for favorable travel conditions before a more promising storm crosses the West Coast during the day. Christmas Day may start dry, but snow showers should begin by the late morning or early afternoon and continue into Thursday morning, becoming heaviest in the afternoon and evening. Snowfall amounts are still uncertain since the storm splits as it crosses the Great Basin on Tuesday, similar to the earlier European ECMWF solution I discussed in my last weather narrative, but the southern end of the split will fortunately carry the bulk of the storm’s energy and moisture across Colorado.
I would expect 4-8” of snow for the Thursday morning report at mid-mountain, with a brief break on Thursday ahead of a continuing series of waves that bring snowfall chances starting Thursday afternoon or evening and lasting into Saturday morning. All of these waves will be relatively weak and fast-moving, but they occur in favorable winds from the northwest, which means snowfall accumulations could quickly add up.
The timing and strength of these waves are still in question, so enjoy the snow that does come during Christmas and I’ll have more details about what follows in my next regularly scheduled weather narrative on Thursday afternoon.
Sunny skies and warming temperatures to start the weekend
Thursday, December 19, 2024
Temperatures around twenty degrees at all elevations and bluebird skies are over the Steamboat Springs area this Thursday at noon. Warming temperatures and sunny skies will last through Saturday before increasing clouds on Sunday foreshadow a pattern change that will bring a series of storms overhead through Christmas week.
A ridge of high pressure has built over the West ahead of a sprawling low pressure area extending southward from the Gulf of Alaska and westward to Siberia. A series of waves traveling along the low pressure’s southern boundary will tap areas of subtropical moisture as they travel eastward across the Pacific, first weakening the ridge of high pressure overhead before moving it toward eastern North America.
The first wave strong enough to weaken the ridge will cross the Pacific Northwest coast on Saturday before traveling across Montana on Sunday. So the beautiful weather with mostly sunny skies should continue through Saturday, with the high temperature reaching near forty degrees in town, over ten degrees above our average of 29 F, and thirty degrees at the top of the Steamboat Ski Resort.
The wave will bring cooler air for Sunday, with high temperatures dropping several degrees along with some breezes ahead of the next stronger wave currently promising increasing clouds during the day and light snow showers beginning as early as Sunday night. The light snow should continue through Monday, becoming heaviest Monday night, before the storm passes ahead of a quick-moving ridge of high pressure which should bring nice weather for Tuesday.
Right now, a stronger storm, perhaps the remnants of the northern Pacific low pressure area, is forecast for around Christmas Day, though there is weather forecast model uncertainty as to whether the storm splits and weakens, according to the European ECMWF, or remains stronger and more cohesive, according to the American GFS.
So enjoy the beautiful start to the weekend, and I’ll have more details about the impending pattern change for Christmas week in my next regularly scheduled weather narrative on Sunday afternoon.
Dry and warmer weather to follow small storms later today and Tuesday
Sunday, December 15, 2024
Temperatures are in the mid-thirties in the town of Steamboat Springs and mid-teens near the top of the Steamboat Ski Resort under mostly cloudy skies this Sunday noon. A couple of small storms will bring chances for snow later today and Tuesday with nice weather for Monday and midweek lasting into the weekend.
We’ve had the warmest morning in town since the end of November with a low temperature of twenty degrees, almost fifteen degrees above our average of 6 F, thanks to overnight clouds acting like a blanket. A piece of the approaching storm brought some snow showers last evening, and more snow showers should arrive later today and tonight as the rest of the storm passes to our north, with 1-4” possible at mid-mountain.
A quick-moving ridge of high pressure on Monday ahead of our next storm, which is currently moving through the Gulf of Alaska, will bring a pleasant day with mostly sunny skies, though clearing by Monday morning means another cold start to the day.
The next storm is moving in from the Pacific Northwest, a more favorable direction than this last storm which crossed California, thanks to moisture sneaking through first the Cascades along the Columbia River Basin and then the Boise River Basin, rather than being interrupted by the Sierra Nevadas.
Snow showers should start before noon on Tuesday and continue through the day and evening as winds shift to be from our favorable northwest direction. We could see 2-5” reported at mid-mountain for the Wednesday morning ski report if the storm keeps trending in the more favorable direction.
Meanwhile, a large and complex storm is forecast to develop over the Aleutian Islands, forcing a ridge of high pressure to build ahead of the storm. Pieces of energy ejecting from the storm will keep the ridge moving eastward and toward our area, bringing mostly sunny skies by Wednesday. Temperatures will warm at the higher elevations, though clear skies and light winds may redevelop a pesky temperature inversion and keep the Yampa Valley on the cool side, with high temperatures in the thirties, compared to our average of 30 F.
A grazing wave moving over the top of the high pressure ridge may influence our weather on Thursday, with current forecasts keeping us dry and breezy, which may help mix the cold air at the bottom of the Yampa Valley, breaking the temperature inversion and allowing high temperatures to approach the forties.
That Aleutian storm is forecast to move eastward, and may eventually help the weather pattern become colder and wetter as energy ejecting out of the storm begins interacting with the ridge of high pressure over the West near the end of next weekend or early the following workweek.
So enjoy the snow that we do get, and of course the nice weather after the storms, and I’ll have more details on the possible pattern change in my next regularly scheduled weather narrative on Thursday afternoon.
Some snow to bookend a pleasant Saturday
Thursday, December 12, 2024
Temperatures are in the low twenties in town and mid-twenties near the top of the Steamboat Ski Resort under bluebird skies this Thursday noon. A pleasant Saturday will be sandwiched by two storms with limited moisture, bringing some snowfall on Friday and Sunday.
The early week storm produced 7.5” at mid-mountain between Sunday and Tuesday evenings, with 19” up top thanks to cold, unstable and just-moist-enough flow from the west and our favorable northwest direction. In fact, 4” of snow was recorded in just 40 minutes at the Steamboat Powdercam during the heaviest shower just before sunset on Monday.
The clear skies and calm winds Wednesday night led to another temperature inversion this morning, with my weather station near the base of the ski area recording a low of -2 F compared to the low of 15 F at the Storm Peak Lab, as breezes from the west and southwest warmed the higher elevations.
An approaching storm now over the West Coast will bring a chance of light snow starting around noon on Friday and lasting into the evening, with accumulations expected to be 1-4” at mid-mountain.
A quick-moving ridge of high pressure behind the departing storm and ahead of a storm forecast to develop off the West Coast on Friday will be overhead on Saturday for a pleasant day with mostly sunny skies. The storm is forecast to weaken as it crosses the Great Basin on Saturday, but enough moisture should be left to bring another 3-6” of accumulations at mid-mountain between early Sunday morning and Sunday evening.
Another storm is forecast to develop south of the Aleutian Islands during the weekend as subtropical moisture mixes with some cold air breaking away from eastern Siberia. High pressure ridging ahead of the eastward-moving storm should bring a dry start to the workweek with snow chances beginning as early as Tuesday as the Aleutian storm approaches.
Enjoy the nice Saturday and the new snow on either side, and I’ll have more details about the midweek storm in my next regularly scheduled weather narrative on Sunday afternoon.
Cold front to arrive tonight with some snow Monday and Tuesday
Sunday, December 8, 2024
A broken cloud deck ahead of a strong cold front tonight is over the Steamboat Springs area this Sunday noon with temperatures only in the low twenties. Dry air just ahead of the front should lead to mostly sunny afternoon skies, but we could see snowflakes as soon as tonight, with most of the accumulations behind the front occurring between Monday and Tuesday noon. A ridge of high pressure then temporarily builds to our west while a storm deepens over the Midwest keeping winds from the northwest and a mix of sun and clouds overhead through the rest of the workweek.
A splitting trough of low pressure extends from the Pacific Northwest through Montana, with the western half of the split forecast to move southward through the Great Basin, bringing a cold front through our area tonight. While we should see mostly sunny afternoon skies ahead of the front, snowflakes could be associated with the front tonight. Sadly, the short-range weather forecast models disagree on snowfall amounts for the entire duration of the storm through Tuesday afternoon, forcing my admittedly broad snowfall estimates.
There could be an inch or two of snow reported at mid-mountain Monday morning at the Steamboat Ski Resort based upon the more optimistic model, though accumulating snowfall will more likely wait until after the report with 1-4” possible by sunset as winds turn to be from the favorable northwest direction behind the front. But there is not a lot of moisture associated with the front, and combined with an even drier reinforcing surge of cold air early Tuesday, there could be another inch or two overnight Monday and 1-4” during the day Tuesday.
Ironically, the cold front will break the strong temperature inversion in the Yampa Valley, with low temperatures in town rising from the low single digits to the low-teens, finally above our average of 7 F. But the relief will be brief as high temperatures behind the front on Monday and Tuesday are only expected to be in the high teens or low twenties, over ten degrees below our average of 31 F.
By Wednesday, a ridge of high pressure is forecast to build temporarily over the West Coast. Our storm will recombine with the eastern half of its split and more cold air from the Canadian Plains, producing a deep and cold area of low pressure over the Midwest. The resultant northwest flow over our area will contain some moisture keeping the cool air, average temperatures and a mix of sun and clouds around through Thursday.
Meanwhile, incoming Pacific energy is forecast to cross the West Coast on Thursday and move the ridge toward our area while weakening it, likely keeping our area dry. However, more incoming Pacific energy may bring snowfall chances back to our area next weekend or soon after.
Let’s hope for the more optimistic side of the early week snowfall forecast, and check back to my next regularly scheduled weather narrative on Thursday afternoon for more details on what we may expect for next weekend.
