Better overnight snowmaking temperatures this week
Sunday, November 21, 2021
The skies over Steamboat Springs have turned crystal blue with temperatures in the upper thirties this Sunday afternoon. Temperatures will rise at least ten degrees on Monday and Tuesday ahead of colder weather for Wednesday and Thanksgiving Day, but with only a small chance of snowfall. For the projected opening of the Steamboat Ski Resort on Saturday, the best news is snowmaking will be possible for at least some of each night with the forecast cold overnight temperatures in the low twenties.
The top of Sunshine Peak looks great this afternoon as it shows off the 6” of natural snowfall received from yesterday’s storm, though less than an inch fell around town. But this winter coat will have a tough time hanging on as a ridge of high pressure currently over the West Coast moves overhead on Monday and Tuesday.
Clear and sunny skies for Monday and most of Tuesday will allow high temperatures to soar to ten to fifteen degrees above our average of 37 F. Meanwhile, a storm currently in the Gulf of Alaska will move across the Pacific Northwest on Monday and Idaho on Tuesday. Additionally, that piece of energy off the California coast leftover from our Saturday storm will be incorporated into the Idaho storm to create an expansive area of low pressure forecast to move across the Rockies on Wednesday.
While this sounds good, there just is not much moisture associated with the storm, and most of it will fall to our north on Tuesday night and south on Wednesday, leaving us with only a small chance of light snow showers. While the lack of precipitation will be disappointing, the quite cold air mass forecast to be dragged through our area starting Tuesday night will help snowmaking efforts, with high temperatures on a cloudy Wednesday in the low thirties.
More cool weather is forecast for what should be a beautifully crisp and sunny Thanksgiving Day as a reinforcing wave of cold and dry air follows Wednesday night, with temperatures rising to around average.
Another wave may graze our area on Friday, though current forecasts have that weak wave staying north of our area, with another ridge of high pressure moving overhead for the weekend. I’ll have more details on what is hopefully the Steamboat Ski Resort’s opening day on Saturday in my next regularly scheduled weather narrative on Thanksgiving Day.
Small storm for Saturday
Thursday, November 18, 2021
After the coldest temperature of the season so far reached 9 F at the Bob Adams Airport early this Thursday morning, sunny skies with temperatures in the mid-forties are over the Steamboat Springs area this mid-afternoon. Warmer temperatures with some clouds on Friday will precede a small storm on Saturday with light snowfall possible at all elevations. The sun returns on a cool Sunday and will be followed by a nice and warm Monday, with unsettled weather back in our future as soon as Tuesday afternoon.
A storm currently crossing the Washington state coast will weaken and be pushed eastward across the Great Basin on Friday by an advancing ridge of high pressure developing in the Gulf of Alaska. While the storm will graze our area early Saturday morning, some incoming Pacific moisture and energy will slingshot around the southern portion of the storm and move across our area Friday morning.
Not much more than clouds are expected, with partly sunny skies and temperatures approaching fifty degrees returning for Friday afternoon. Incidentally, we’ve just crossed the forty degree mark for our average high temperature, so Friday’s high temperature will be close to or around ten degrees above normal.
Breezes from generally the west will increase Friday afternoon as clouds increase during the evening ahead of the main storm. Temperatures will be cold enough for snow when the best precipitation moves by early Saturday morning through noon or so. The storm has trended a bit stronger in the latest weather forecast models, and it looks like we could see an inch or two of snow down in the Yampa Valley with 3-6” at the top of Mt. Werner by Saturday afternoon. There could be briefly moderate to even heavy snowfall during this period which could make travel over Rabbit Ears Pass difficult at times.
Snowfall will quickly taper off after noon, though showers will continue through the afternoon in our favorable cool, moist and unstable flow from the northwest. Interestingly, the southern part of the storm is forecast to elongate into the Desert Southwest as it passes through on Saturday, eventually leaving some energy behind off the southern California coast that may be a player in our weather next week.
Another quick-moving but dry wave from the northwest will pass through Sunday morning after mixing with some cold air over British Columbia, so expect a cool and sunny Sunday with temperatures around average and similar to Saturday.
Much warmer temperatures are forecast to start the work week as that strengthening Pacific ridge of high pressure moves through, with unsettled weather possible by later Tuesday depending on what happens to the energy left behind the California coast and the next Pacific storm. I’ll have more to say about that and how it may affect the very busy travel period heading up to Thanksgiving in my next regularly scheduled weather narrative on Sunday afternoon.
Cooler weather with some snow arrives midweek
Sunday, November 14, 2021
Partly sunny skies with temperatures around fifty degrees are over the Steamboat Springs area early this Sunday afternoon. More sun and warmer temperatures are forecast for Monday, while Tuesday sees another day of warm temperatures but increasing clouds ahead of a cold front Tuesday night. The cold air will be here by Wednesday, but moisture is lacking so snowfall will be meager. Thursday looks to start cold and will be dry, with more warming on Friday ahead of another chance for snow during the weekend.
An expansive ridge of high pressure is currently sandwiched between a low pressure area extending from the Gulf of Alaska southward to Hawaii and another extending from Hudson Bay southward through the Great Lakes. Some quite cold air has moved southward into the Gulf of Alaska and will be forced eastward by the eastward-moving area of low pressure over the Pacific, bringing a storm into the Pacific Northwest around Monday night.
The flow from the northwest that is currently over our area will dry over the rest of today and tomorrow and winds will turn to be from the west ahead of the Pacific Northwest storm. So look for mostly sunny skies on Monday with temperatures in the mid-fifties or even approaching sixty degrees, around fifteen degrees above our average of 42 F.
The main part of the storm is forecast to move through Washington and Oregon on Monday and northern Idaho and Montana on Tuesday, grazing our area with a cold front late Tuesday or early Wednesday. Winds and clouds will increase ahead of the front during the day Tuesday, with a chance for some showers with meager snow accumulations first at the higher elevations by Tuesday afternoon and then all elevations from Tuesday night through Wednesday morning.
We will go from high temperatures around fifteen degrees above average on Tuesday to five to ten degrees below average on Wednesday, but the moisture goes away behind the storm, along with any chances for more snowfall after Wednesday morning.
Thursday morning will start cold, but high temperatures will warm to near average under sunny skies as a transient ridge of high pressure moves through ahead of another storm forecast to cross the West Coast Thursday night.
This storm has a chance to bring cooler temperatures and some snowfall back to our area between Friday night and mid-Saturday, which is the day the Steamboat Ski Resort is scheduled to open. However, the coming two storms certainly won’t be game-changers, and our best snow for the week will be of the man-made variety. Stay tuned to my next regularly scheduled weather narrative on Thursday afternoon where I’ll discuss how that weekend storm is shaping up.
Snow showers taper off through Friday ahead of nice start to the weekend
Thursday, November 11, 2021
The Steamboat Springs area has finally seen some more wintry weather these last two days, with temperatures hovering around freezing in town late on this Thursday afternoon. Even though town did not see much snow, the Steamboat Powdercam at the top of Sunshine Peak is showing about 7 inches of snow accumulation so far, with some more coming tonight. Snow showers are forecast to taper off through Friday and may even hang on into Saturday morning at the higher elevations with dry and warmer weather forecast by Saturday afternoon. A cold front looks to graze our area on by Saturday night with precipitation likely staying just north and east of our area before warm and dry weather returns for the start of the following work week.
A ridge of high pressure over the West Coast is sandwiched between deep and cold areas of low pressure centered over the Gulf of Alaska and the upper Midwest. While the brunt of the current storm has passed, snow showers, some moderate, will continue through midnight or so in the favorable cold, moist and unstable flow from the northwest. Snow showers will taper off after midnight, though slowly, as they are forecast to continue through Friday and possible into Saturday morning at the higher elevations, with several more inches of snowfall possible.
Even though snow showers will hang on Friday at the higher elevations, temperatures will warm in town to around our average of 43 F as the West Coast ridge of high pressure is pushed over our area by energy ejecting out of the area of low pressure in the Gulf of Alaska. Skies clear and some sun returns by around noon on Saturday as temperatures warm into the fifties.
That energy ejecting from the Gulf is forecast to travel over the ridge and graze our area by late Saturday afternoon or night on its way eastward. Precipitation is currently forecast to stay to our north and east, so after a cool start to Sunday, temperatures return to the fifties by the afternoon.
Unfortunately for the projected opening of the Steamboat Ski Resort in a week from this Saturday, a ridge of high pressure is expected to move overhead for the beginning of the work week, with our next chance of colder weather and precipitation around midweek. I’ll certainly be talking about that in my next regularly scheduled weather narrative on Sunday afternoon.
Unsettled weather returns after a gorgeous weekend
Sunday, November 7, 2021
Temperatures reached the mid-sixties by mid-afternoon on this Sunday, same as yesterday. The unseasonably warm weather with high temperatures almost twenty degrees above our average of 47 F looks to go away for the upcoming work week as the weather turns unsettled and snow returns to the weather forecast by midweek.
A ridge of high pressure is currently sitting over our region while a persistent area of low pressure extends from the Gulf of Alaska westward to the Bering Sea. A chunk of cold air has broken away from the North Pole and will be incorporated into the persistent low pressure area, eventually forming a storm in the Gulf of Alaska that is forecast to make landfall along the Vancouver coast early on Tuesday.
A wave of energy ejecting out of the developing storm will pass near our area on Monday, so expect increasing clouds with a small chance of rain showers in the afternoon and overnight, along with high temperatures in the fifties.
The parent storm is expected to split along the West Coast on Tuesday as it moves inland, with breezy winds developing ahead of the southern portion of the storm which is forecast to move through the Great Basin later Tuesday, Temperatures will be similar to Monday, though increasing clouds through the day will yield a better chance of showers by later in the afternoon.
Shower chances become likely overnight Tuesday and through Wednesday as the best part of the southern part of storm passes through our area. Snow levels will descend overnight, likely reaching the Yampa Valley floor by Wednesday morning. Snow showers should continue through the day, with moderate to sometimes heavy snowfall continuing at the higher elevations under the stronger storm cells, with difficult travel at times over Rabbit Ears Pass.
The cold temperatures associated with the southern part of the storm will arrive Thursday morning after the best moisture has left the area, but we could see 5-10” of snow at and above pass between Tuesday and Wednesday nights, with some snow possible down in town, most likely on non-paved surfaces.
While Thursday will start dry, the parent storm is forecast to graze our area as it moves into the Upper Midwest and strengthens, bringing another surge of cold air and moisture later Thursday into Friday. More snowfall is likely at all elevations before a ridge of high pressure moves overhead on Friday thanks to another developing storm over the Aleutian Islands.
Stay tuned to my next regularly scheduled weather narrative on Thursday afternoon as I’ll take a guess at snowfall amounts for the last part of the storm on Thursday night, and discuss whether that ridge of high pressure sticks around for the weekend or gives way to more showery weather.
