Hot start to the weekend with some showers possible
Thursday, July 21, 2022
Temperatures are in the mid-eighties under mostly sunny skies this Thursday mid-afternoon in Steamboat Springs. Temperatures will stay hot through Saturday when an approaching cool front will increase the chances for afternoon and evening showers on Saturday and Sunday and cool temperatures by several degrees starting Sunday.
A ridge of high pressure is currently sitting over the West and leading to warm afternoon temperatures reaching into the upper eighties, around five degrees above our average of 84 F. Energy ejecting out of a storm currently in the Bering Sea will help dislodge the Pacific Northwest eddy left behind from last week’s Vancouver storm eastward across the northern Rockies through this weekend.
While Friday will be similar to today, perhaps with an isolated shower, we will see effects from that eastward moving eddy starting on Saturday as shower chances increase in the afternoon and evening as a cool front grazes our area. While the front may not arrive early enough in the day to moderate the hot temperatures much, areas under any clouds will see some relief from the heat.
The storm moving across the northern Rockies is forecast to nudge the ridge of high pressure eastward, and moisture over our area will increase from the grazing storm as well as monsoonal moisture carried northward on the back side of the ridge of high pressure. So expect high temperatures to cool several degrees toward our average of 84 F on Sunday with another chance of afternoon and evening storms.
Drier air behind the front looks to overspread our part of Colorado to start the work week, and additional energy moving through that Bering Sea storm is forecast to keep the ridge of high pressure from rebuilding, so expect a very pleasant dry summer day on Monday with high temperatures around average. There may be another grazing cool front later Tuesday, or not, but I’ll have more clarity on that possibility in my next regularly scheduled weather narrative on Sunday afternoon.
Modest thunderstorm chances from Monday through midweek
Sunday, July 17, 2022
Temperatures are already in the mid-eighties under mostly sunny skies early this Sunday afternoon in Steamboat Springs. The rest of today will be dry and hot, with high temperatures around ninety degrees, before Monday sees a chance of afternoon and evening thunderstorms along with similarly hot temperatures, moderated by any cloud cover of course. Temperatures will cool several degrees on Tuesday and Wednesday as storm chances increase before they decrease again for the end of the work week as high temperatures again threaten the ninety degree mark.
A ridge of high pressure is currently over the Rocky Mountains while a storm is crossing the Vancouver coast. Cold air from the northern latitudes has been continuously moving across the Bering Sea and into the Gulf of Alaska this summer and creating a persistent low pressure area, and the Vancouver storm is the latest to form there. Even as another chunk of cold air enters the Gulf of Alaska and dislodges the bulk of the Vancouver storm through Montana Monday night, the southern end is left behind as an eddy over the eastern Pacific that may be a player in our weather for next weekend.
The ridge of high pressure will be flattened and nudged to the east on Monday and Tuesday as the Vancouver storm moves across Montana before rebounding and oozing back westward behind the storm through the end of the work week. Monsoonal moisture from the south will flow back over our area on the backside of the re-positioned ridge of high pressure, increasing the chance of afternoon and evening thunderstorms on Monday, with a better chance on Tuesday and Wednesday along with cooling temperatures of several degrees, especially for those areas benefiting from the increased cloud cover.
Winds will shift to be from the south on Monday to be from the west and northwest by Thursday as the ridge of high pressure oozes back westward, and this will eventually sever the monsoonal moisture plume with storm chances decreasing starting Thursday and heading into the weekend, along with a rebound in temperatures back toward the ninety degree mark.
Weather forecast models agree that the eddy in the eastern Pacific will be forced eastward across the West Coast early in the weekend, possibly leading to another monsoonal surge of moisture over our area by late in the weekend or soon after as the ridge of high pressure also gets pushed to the east. I’ll know more about that possibility and whether the weekend ends dry or stormy in my next regularly scheduled weather narrative on Thursday afternoon.
Storm chances decrease for the weekend
Thursday, July 14, 2022
The clouds over Steamboat Springs this Thursday morning have dissipated early this afternoon leaving mostly sunny skies and temperatures in the low eighties. Good chances for afternoon and overnight storms will continue today and more so on Friday before they decrease for the weekend as drier air pushes through the northern Colorado region.
A ridge of high pressure continues to sit over the West while a storm is located in the Gulf of Alaska. Monsoonal moisture from the south has been drawn around the ridge of high pressure and over our area starting yesterday, and that will continue today and tomorrow. While some areas may receive brief locally heavy rain, frequent lightning, small hail and gusty winds, some areas may receive nothing, and this was the case yesterday when the downtown area received over an inch of rain in about ten minutes along with marble sized hail! But while the core of that storm cell was intense, it was also small as only a third of an inch was recorded between the mountain and downtown and my rain gauge about 3 miles south of downtown showed only 0.15”.
Good storm chances will persist for later today and tonight as subtle impulses of energy rotate around the ridge of high pressure and encourage storm formation. Better chances for daytime and overnight storms exist for Friday as cold air moving through the Bering Sea dislodges the Gulf of Alaska storm eastward and drags a left-over piece of energy off the coast of northern California through the northern and central Rockies, temporarily flattening the ridge of high pressure. Even short term weather forecast models have a difficult time with timing and placement of these storms, but some areas are likely to receive the same brief heavy rain, frequent lighting, small hail and gusty winds that downtown saw yesterday afternoon.
The ridge of high pressure rebounds behind the disturbance on Friday as drier air ahead of the eastward moving Gulf of Alaska storm overspreads at least northern Colorado starting on Saturday for a downturn in storm chances, though the storms that do develop could still be strong. By late in the weekend, that Gulf of Alaska storm is forecast to cross the Vancouver coast, with the southerly flow ahead of that storm allowing some monsoonal moisture to return northward, though at this point most of that moisture will still be south of us for another day of reduced storm chances.
That Gulf of Alaska storm is forecast to eventually move across Montana early in the work week, though there is weather forecast model disagreement on the amount of dry air that may move overhead as well as whether the proximity of the grazing storm will allow for stronger thunderstorms. But check back for my next regularly scheduled weather narrative on Sunday afternoon where I should have a better idea of the weather for the coming work week.
Sunny mornings and hot days with afternoon storm chances by midweek
Sunday, July 10, 2022
Temperatures are already in the low eighties under sunny skies this Sunday noon in Steamboat Springs, on their way toward the ninety degree mark for the second day in a row. Though there is a bit more moisture in the air today as evidenced by the smattering of clouds, there is only a slight chance of a late-day storm that would produce mostly gusty winds. A grazing dry cool front tonight will only drop temperatures several degrees on Monday and Tuesday before they increase again by midweek, along with chances of afternoon storms lasting into next weekend.
A weather disturbance currently moving through the Pacific Northwest will temporarily squash the ridge of high pressure over our area and drag a weak cool front through tonight. While we have seen a small increase in moisture today as compared to yesterday, the chances for storms are small with gusty winds the main effect as any precipitation that falls will evaporate in the dry lower levels of the atmosphere when afternoon relative humidities fall to near ten percent.
Winds will shift to be from the west and northwest behind the front for Monday, eliminating the chance of storms as the moisture flow from the south is temporarily severed. And we will see a drop in high temperatures of several degrees, though they will still be several degrees above our average of 83 F.
By Tuesday, the squashed ridge of high pressure oozes back west as it begins to rebound behind the grazing weather disturbance, with similar temperatures to Monday along with some afternoon clouds. Another storm forecast to cross the Vancouver coast by midweek will switch our winds back to the south as the ridge of high pressure rebuilds over the West, carrying better monsoonal moisture back over our area starting on Wednesday and continuing into the weekend.
While we will have better chances of wetting afternoon rains, amounts at this time look meager, with total rainfall only forecast to be around a tenth of an inch through the weekend. But with the typical summertime sunny mornings, the moisture will at least produce clouds which will moderate the hot afternoon temperatures expected to reach into the upper eighties.
Enjoy the very typical summertime weather for the Colorado high country this week, and check back for my next regularly scheduled weather narrative on Thursday afternoon for an update on the coming weekend weather.
This weekend to be hottest of the summer so far
Thursday, July 7, 2022
After a sunny morning in Steamboat Springs, skies have become partly cloudy this Thursday mid-afternoon with temperatures around eighty degrees. There are chances for some spotty precipitation today thanks to the nearby afternoon storm clouds, though those chances all but disappear for the weekend as high temperatures rise to threaten the ninety degree mark.
A ridge of high pressure is currently over the length of the Rocky Mountains while a storm is spinning off the Vancouver coast. That storm is forecast to be pushed eastward by cold air from the North Pole that moved through the Bering Sea yesterday, which will allow very dry air from the Desert Southwest to overspread our area for tomorrow and the weekend as winds shift to be from the current southerly direction to be from the southwest.
Even clouds will be hard to come by on Friday and Saturday, though afternoon clouds should be around on Sunday and Monday as winds briefly turn to be more from the south thanks to the southern end of that Vancouver storm, which is forecast to move through Montana late in the weekend. There may even be a shower, though any precipitation would likely be confined to the highest elevations.
High temperatures will be in the mid-eighties tomorrow, and upper eighties by both days of the weekend, which is around five degrees above our average of 83 F. And even though we may tickle the ninety degree mark, the record high of 94 F on both those days looks safe.
A generally hot and dry week looks to follow the weekend, though I’ll update that forecast in my next regularly scheduled weather narrative on Sunday afternoon.
