Thursday, March 18, 2021
Temperatures are 28 F at the Bob Adams airport and 24 F near the top of Mt. Werner under mostly sunny skies this Thursday noon. More warming temperatures on Friday and Saturday will be followed by a cold front Saturday night which will return our area to cool and unsettled weather that could last through the work week and into the following weekend.
Spring fever is back in the air to close out the work week as a ridge of high pressure moves across the Rockies ahead of a strong storm currently just off the Pacific Northwest coast. Some clouds will pass by today, with high temperatures expected to be around our average of 42 F, and more sun on Friday should propel high temperatures into the fifties.
The Pacific Northwest storm is forecast to split as it crosses the coast tomorrow, with the northern part of the split bringing first clouds and breezy winds from the southwest during the day on another fifty degree Saturday, and then a cold front Saturday night. It does appear we will see a period of moderate to heavy snows when the front blasts through, with 3-6” of snow possible for the Sunday morning report if the current timing holds.
The evolution of the southern part of the split is still uncertain, with another upstream storm forecast to quickly force the southern piece eastward and near our area later Sunday. Weather forecast models are struggling with the organization of the southern piece, as well as the strength of the incoming storm, so it is unclear if snow will continue to fall during the day Sunday and Sunday night, like the American GFS or not, like the European ECMWF.
More forecast uncertainty plagues the work week weather forecast as the American GFS brings that next storm over our area on Tuesday while the European ECMWF has that storm moving southwest of our area. This trend continues for the next incoming storm, so we could see chances of snow for each day of the upcoming week if the storms pass near our area or much drier weather if the storms stay to our southwest.
Interestingly, both of these weather forecast models agree on a cold and wet storm for around the following Friday or the weekend. So enjoy the next several springlike days, and note that due to the large forecast uncertainty after the cold front Saturday night, I may publish the regular Sunday afternoon weather narrative a day earlier than usual on Saturday afternoon.
Sunday, March 14, 2021
After a windy morning with snow showers, some peeks of sun are over the Steamboat Springs area on this still windy Sunday afternoon. A wave of energy and moisture rotating around that massive storm to our east will approach our area from the north Monday morning and bring continued snow showers through the day. Another much smaller storm passes south of our area on Wednesday, though we will still see a chance of some light snow showers later Tuesday and parts of Wednesday. Much warmer and dry weather returns for Thursday through most of Saturday before another possibly significant storm is currently advertised to start near the end of next weekend.
The Steamboat Ski Resort reported 5” of new snow at mid-mountain and 6” up top this morning, with an additional 1.5” falling at mid-mountain as of 1 pm and 3” up top, regardless of what the wind-scoured Powdercam and Mid-mountain Powdercam indicated. While the storm was slow to get going, a standout from the ongoing storm early this afternoon includes a total of 31”, and counting, near Aspen Springs by Black Hawk.
Snow showers will end for a brief time this evening before picking up again during Monday thanks to a lobe of energy spinning around the storm to our east. We could see 2-5” between sunrise and sunset on Monday which would be reported on Tuesday morning.
Meanwhile, a stretched incoming storm currently along the Pacific Northwest coast is forecast to split and form an eddy on Monday that moves down the Sierras and crosses the Desert Southwest on Tuesday. This storm looked far more promising when it was forecast to stay intact as discussed in last Thursday’s weather narrative, but now that southern eddy looks to be too far south to bring significant snow to our area. However, in an interesting meteorological dance, a piece of the current storm will break away to its west and be incorporated into the eddy later Tuesday, and this will bring the possibility of light snow showers later Tuesday and some of Wednesday, with minor accumulations.
Springlike weather returns for Thursday, Friday and Saturday as a ridge of high pressure moves through the Rockies ahead of another major storm forecast to develop in the Gulf of Alaska during the work week. We’ll see lots of sun, along with some clouds and high temperatures near our average of 42 F on Thursday, and ten or even more degrees above average on Friday and Saturday.
The next storm has the possibility of being significant, though there are large differences between the weather forecast models, as is expected a week out. Stay tuned to my next regularly scheduled weather narrative on Thursday afternoon for more details on this storm and the weather it may bring to our area.
Thursday, March 11, 2021
The partly cloudy skies over the Steamboat Springs area have turned cloudy with light snow showers observed around the Yampa Valley this Thursday noon. Snow showers will continue today and tonight before decreasing for Friday. But they pick up again on Saturday with the possibility of persistent and moderate to heavy snowfall by Saturday night and Sunday, though uncertainty is high. A short break is advertised for part of Monday before a colder storm may move through later in the day or Tuesday.
A large and powerful storm currently located in the southwest corner of the U.S. is forecast to slowly move across the Desert Southwest on Friday and eventually Colorado on Saturday and Sunday. The storm is large enough to draw moisture from the Gulf of Mexico northward over the next three days and provide the fuel for heavy to excessive snowfall over the Front Range by Saturday afternoon and overnight.
Ahead of the storm, though, we will continue to see periods of snow showers and sun during the day today, with the snow showers lingering into the night. Only 1-4” is expected for the Friday morning report.
As the storm crosses the Desert Southwest and southern Great Basin on Friday, some dry air looks to move over our area for a less showery day than today. Weather forecast models still disagree on how quickly the storm approaches our area, so we may see snow showers redevelop by Friday night, though accumulations by Saturday morning look quite light.
The storm is forecast to be near the Four Corners region around Saturday morning, and this is the time when the ingredients come together for heavy snowfall rates to inundate the Front Range and foothills. Travel will become difficult to impossible down there by Saturday afternoon and overnight, especially in the foothills.
For those lucky enough to live or already be in the mountains on Saturday, snow showers are forecast to increase during the day Saturday with winds from the east developing. While the Steamboat area usually sees dry and windy weather when easterly winds downslope off the Park Range to our east, strong storms can sometimes produce moderate to heavy snows over our area as moisture-rich air moves first over Continental Divide and then over the cold air near the surface that is associated with the storm.
The current forecast has this situation developing, with the snow showers later Saturday becoming moderate to heavy and more persistent by Saturday night and Sunday. There is a high boom or bust potential with this storm for our area, with a reasonable forecast of 4-8” by Sunday morning and an additional 3-6” during the day and overnight Sunday.
There will be a short break in the action on Monday before another colder storm that is currently over the Gulf of Alaska crosses the Pacific Northwest coast and moves by either later Monday, as forecast by the European ECMWF or Tuesday as forecast by the American GFS. The uncertainty is related to how much the storm splits and how much cold air from the Yukon mixes into the storm.
We have a lot of weather to get through before a more certain forecast emerges for the early work week storm, so look for more details in my next regularly scheduled weather narrative on Sunday afternoon. This one may be several hours late depending on how the weekend storm storm affects our area on Sunday.
Sunday, March 7, 2021
Temperatures are 36 F at the Bob Adams airport and 34 F at the top of the Steamboat Ski Resort late this sunny Sunday morning on their way toward fifty in town. More warm temperatures are forecast for the beginning of the work week before a pattern change turns our weather unsettled by Wednesday which persists into next weekend.
Southwest flow ahead of a large storm currently in the Gulf of Alaska has brought dry air, sunny skies and warm temperatures to the Steamboat Springs area this weekend. The storm is forecast to drop southward along the West Coast early in the work week after mixing with some cold air sourced from Baffin Bay west of Greenland.
Our temperatures will stay ten to fifteen degrees above our average of 39 F from today through Tuesday, with the sunny skies briefly interrupted during the first half of Monday as a weak and moisture-starved wave south of the Gulf of Alaska storm is quickly escorted past our area by brisk winds from the southwest.
Enjoy the beautiful springlike weather preview as a wave of energy and moisture is forecast to eject out of the southward-moving main storm and move over our area Tuesday night, beginning a stretch of cooler and unsettled weather with temperatures closer to average.
The leading wave is relatively weak with only light snow showers expected Tuesday night and Wednesday, with perhaps an inch reported Wednesday morning at mid-mountain and another several inches reported during the day.
The main storm is forecast to continue to move southward along the West Coast on Wednesday before turning inland and entering the Desert Southwest on Thursday. The weather forecast becomes more nebulous by the end of the work week as additional hard-to-time and hard-to-place waves of energy and moisture eject out of the main storm. There is loose weather forecast model agreement that we may pick up an additional several inches of snow around Thursday and Thursday night, but significant accumulations look unlikely.
Weather forecast model disagree about how fast the main storm traverses the Desert Southwest, with the American GFS quite a bit faster than the slower and more plodding European ECMWF. While additional minor accumulations of an inch or two are likely on Friday, our snowfall potential for the weekend will depend on how quickly the main storm moves across the Desert Southwest.
So we may see an additional inch or two over the weekend if the storm moves faster, or just cloudy and cool weather before a slower-moving storm brings that light snowfall to our area early in the following work week. And for those traveling to the Front Range late in the work week or during the weekend, it does look they will be in store for a significant precipitation event as easterly winds carry moisture-rich air first over the Eastern Plains incline and eventually over the foothills.
Stay tuned to my next regularly scheduled weather narrative on Thursday afternoon where I’ll discuss the evolution of that Desert Southwest storm and another possible storm for our area during the next work week.
Wednesday, March 3, 2021
A beautiful springlike day was over the Steamboat Springs area this Wednesday, with observed high temperatures of 43 F at the Bob Adams airport and 34 F atop Walton Peak. Infrastructure maintenance has briefly interrupted my access to the Storm Peak Lab observations, but nearby observations, like Walton Peak, Buffalo Pass and Rabbit Ears Pass are easily accessible through the Want other local weather? menu in the Current Weather box on the SnowAlarm home page, as shown in the image to the right.
I’m posting this late in the day Wednesday, a day earlier than usual, since the storm I thought would stay to our south will be close enough to write about as we will see some good snowfall during the day Thursday. Springlike weather returns for Friday and hangs around through at least part of Monday, though it may be briefly interrupted by some cooler air and clouds on Sunday.
An eddy that was left behind by storm that approached the West Coast on Monday has just crossed the California - Baja coast as it it makes it way across the southern Great Basin tonight and Colorado on Thursday. The storm is warm and wet thanks to its vacation off the Baja coast and is forecast to bring precipitation to all of Colorado. While lower elevations around the state will likely see rain or a rain-snow mix, we should see an all-snow event with showers beginning Thursday morning, likely after the morning report. Snowfall rates should quickly pick up in the morning and continue through the day, reaching around 1”/hour or more at times as the storm center passes just to our south.
Short-term weather forecast models have the highest snowfall rates from about 8 am through late afternoon or early evening, and we could see 4-8” of relatively dense snowfall at mid-mountain that becomes a bit less dense later in the day as cooler air within and behind the storm passes through, with a bit more up top.
Though moisture may linger early on Friday, weather forecasts have sun returning during the day and temperatures warming to around five degrees above our average of 38 F. More sun and even warmer temperatures, possibly in the low-fifties, are on tap for Saturday before we see a slight cool-down toward average on Sunday as a storm looks to graze our area to the north. There is still some forecast uncertainty with respect to the southern extent of the storm, with the European ECMWF still insisting on a a closer storm that will bring more cooling and perhaps even some light snow early in the day.
A series of Pacific storms then take aim on the West and bring an extended period of unsettled weather that begins around Tuesday or Wednesday, with some storms possibly being significant. Ahead of that pattern change, a ridge of high pressure in advance of the first storm will bring another beautiful springlike day on Monday with more sunny skies and temperatures once again in the lower fifties.
I plan on posting my next weather narrative during its regularly scheduled time slot on Sunday afternoon. Enjoy the snowfall tomorrow and the following springlike weather ahead of what looks to be a stormy March.