Cool and unsettled weather yields to warm and mostly sunny for Opening Day
Sunday, November 19, 2023
Temperatures are in the mid thirties under cloudy skies late this Sunday morning in Steamboat Springs. The cool temperatures forecast for today and Monday will be accompanied by sporadic showers producing only meager precipitation behind a cool front this afternoon. Despite cooling nighttime temperatures, warmer daytime highs under mostly sunny skies return on Tuesday and Wednesday, which is the scheduled Opening Day of the Steamboat Ski Resort. Clouds return on Thanksgiving Day ahead of another storm for the end of the work week that promises some snow and colder temperatures.
As an administrative note, SnowAlarm switches some products around between the winter and summer seasons; the current avalanche conditions from the Colorado Avalanche Center are now on the home page and references to the air quality widget and NOAA smoke model have been removed. Additionally, I have resumed posting the hourly forecasts for snow bands that are run twice daily.
The West is under a broad trough of low pressure formed by the departing storm from last night that is currently over Oklahoma and Nebraska and an approaching storm affecting Utah. The departing storm left about a quarter inch of mostly liquid precipitation in town and two inches of snow at mid mountain through this morning. Though the upper mountain powdercam is showing nine inches of snow, I do not know when that platform was last cleared; for reference the Tower SNOTEL site indicates about seven inches of snow fell starting Saturday afternoon that contained 0.6” of liquid.
The Utah storm is now forecast to stay to our west, but will be close enough to drag a cool front through our area this afternoon. Winds will switch to be from the current favorable northwest to the less favorable north behind the front, eventually making the current intermittent showers even less numerous, even as they continue through the day Monday.
While we may see another inch or two of snowfall at the higher elevations, the best news will be the colder temperatures that will allow desperately needed snowmaking in time for the scheduled Opening Day of the Steamboat Ski Resort on Wednesday. This will be more efficient up top due to colder temperatures and lower relative humidity, but I have no idea if riding the new upper mountain extension of the Wild Blue gondola is being considered.
Plenty of sun on Tuesday and Wednesday will allow daytime temperatures in town to stay in the low forties through Tuesday, right at our average of 40 F, despite the colder nighttime temperatures in the low twenties tonight and mid teens on Monday and Tuesday nights, which is also right around our average of 15 F.
Even warmer high temperatures near fifty degrees are expected for Wednesday as a ridge of high pressure quickly moves through the area behind the departing storms and ahead of our next weather maker for later Thanksgiving Day or Friday.
This next storm is currently moving through the Gulf of Alaska and is forecast to mix with some arctic air from north central Canada after it crosses the Pacific Northwest coast on Wednesday. High temperatures will drop into the mid forties on Thanksgiving Day as clouds increase ahead of the approaching storm. There is more uncertainty with respect to the timing of the cold front and the amount of snow than the colder temperatures, with highs currently forecast around freezing on Friday.
Let’s hope that the Steamboat Ski Resort can manage their scheduled opening on Wednesday, and be sure to check back for my next regularly scheduled weather narrative on Thursday afternoon for more details about the next storm.
Unsettled weather returns mid weekend after a nice Friday
Thursday, November 16, 2023
After rain and then snow showers through the morning in Steamboat Springs, rain showers in town and snow showers above Christie Peak have returned this Thursday mid afternoon with temperatures near forty degrees. Precipitation will taper off through the evening before the sun returns and temperatures warm for a nice Friday and most of Saturday. However, a couple of storm systems bring inclement weather back into our area from later Saturday through Monday.
An eddy of low pressure is currently off the coast of California while a quick moving wave is traversing the Northern Plains. Our precipitation today has been caused by the interaction between energy and moisture ejecting out ahead of the eddy and the southern part of the Northern Plains wave as it passed through the area this morning. The relatively warm air mass associated with the eddy has limited any accumulating snowfall in town, with maybe an inch falling in a short period of time mid morning. Fortunately, the mid mountain powdercam and the upper mountain powdercam were operational during the event and indicated about 3” or so of accumulations.
Showers should taper off through this evening before mostly sunny skies return for Friday and boost the high temperature to near fifty degrees, which is over five degrees above our average of 43 F. Saturday should be similar until the afternoon when increasing clouds will mark the start of the next multiday storm.
A wave currently moving through the western Gulf of Alaska is forecast to mix with some cold air moving southward from Alaska and intensify through the first half of the weekend. The resulting storm is then forecast to kick the eddy now off the coast of California eastward through the Great Basin on Saturday before this trailing storm moves southeastward through the Great Basin on Sunday.
While the eddy is forecast to weaken as it moves across Colorado later Saturday into Sunday, there will be enough energy and moisture to restart the mix of rain and snow showers in town and snow showers on the hill by Saturday night.
These will persist through both Sunday and Monday as temperatures cool thanks to the trailing second storm. The storm track has trended further west and is now forecast to move through Nevada Saturday night, Utah and the Four Corners on Sunday and New Mexico on Monday.
The pair of storms will drop the high temperature on Sunday back to average with an even cooler Monday in the high thirties. But the amount of precipitation is quite uncertain as small changes in the track of the trailing storm will likely lead to large differences in snowfall. Right now, 1-3” are expected in town between Saturday night and Monday afternoon with 5-10” at the top of the Steamboat Ski Resort.
I expect those amounts will change over the next few days as the storms make landfall and enter a denser observational network. This will increase the accuracy of the predicted storm tracks and I hope to have a more certain forecast in my next regularly scheduled weather narrative on Sunday afternoon. And as the Steamboat Ski Resort has scheduled Opening Day for Wednesday, November 22, I’ll also be discussing what looks like good chances for snow and cold right after Thanksgiving Day.
More beautiful weather through midweek
Sunday, November 12, 2023
Temperatures are in the mid forties under cloudless skies late this Sunday morning in Steamboat Springs. After the last several days with high temperatures in the forties, they will reach the mid fifties starting today and lasting through midweek under mostly sunny skies. The weather looks to turn unsettled starting Thursday with a chance for some passing showers, though what happens after that is unclear.
Before we get to the weather forecast, I’d like to revisit last week’s discussion on the predicted super El-Niño for this winter. I’ve collated three more charts that compare the snowfall recorded at mid-mountain at the Steamboat Ski Resort during the last three measured events since 1950.
The first shows the seasonal snowfall for each of the events, with the obvious conclusion that stronger El Niños are correlated with higher snowfall. However, beware of extrapolating over only three events, especially since this year is still just a prediction!
The second chart shows the monthly snowfall by year during these three events while the third shows the snowfall by month.
It was tough for me to draw any additional conclusions with these last two graphs, but feel free to chime in with your thoughts in the comments sections below!
Returning to the weather forecast, a ridge of high pressure currently sits over the West while a broad ridge of low pressure extends southward from the Aleutian Islands through the Gulf of Alaska.
Weather forecast models agree that cold air moving southward across Alaska will consolidate this trough into an eddy that is forecast to move south to be off the coast of California by midweek. Additionally, several waves in the northern Pacific jet stream are forecast to skirt to the north of the eddy through the work week, with some or all of these waves interacting with the eddy in some manner.
Until any of these interactions happen, our weather will stay beautiful with warm sunny days and high temperatures reaching the mid fifties, which is around ten degrees above our average. Low temperatures will also warm from the teens these last several days, reaching about five degrees above our current average in the upper teens.
By Thursday, there is considerable disagreement both between and within the weather forecast models as to how much interaction between the northern Pacific waves and the eddy off the California coast occurs. Right now, one wave may grab some moisture from the eddy as it moves through the Gulf of Alaska later Tuesday and graze our area on Thursday, leading to a cooler day with a chance for some showers.
Another more substantial wave may eventually force the eddy inland over the weekend, leading to more cool and unsettled weather. And for those anxious about Opening Day snowfall for the Steamboat Ski Resort scheduled only ten days away on Wedensday, November 22, that more substantial wave may bring a better chance of snowfall in the several days before opening.
There is a lot of time for the forecast to evolve before then, so enjoy the current gorgeous weather and I’ll be back with my next regularly scheduled weather narrative on Thursday afternoon with more details on the evolving snow chances starting around next weekend.
Warming temperatures for a nice weekend
Thursday, November 9, 2023
Mostly sunny skies with temperatures in the mid thirties are over the Steamboat Springs area early this Thursday afternoon. Temperatures will gradually warm through the weekend reaching above fifty degrees by Sunday afternoon under mostly sunny skies. The only good news from the snow perspective is overnight temperatures will be cold enough for effective snowmaking through the weekend and into the next work week.
Skies have cleared behind the modest storm yesterday that left a bit of snow in town and an unknown amount at the Steamboat Ski Resort since both of their powdercams are down. Temperatures will be slow to warm today and struggle to reach forty degrees, which is over five degrees below our average of 46 F, and low temperatures should fall into the low teens which is also around five degrees below our average of 18 F.
A strong storm currently spinning in the Gulf of Alaska is forecast to eject a wave across the northern Rockies on Friday, and though we will see some clouds from the grazing storm later in the day, high and low temperatures should warm about five degrees to near average.
Plenty of sun will be around for the weekend and the beginning of the next work week as a ridge of high pressure builds over the West, with high temperatures on Saturday stubbornly similar to Friday before warming into the low fifties on Sunday and mid fifties by Monday.
Since there has been some chatter about a super El Niño, which is marked by exceptionally warm waters off the coast of Peru, I thought I would publish the snow water equivalents of our drainage basin for the years of the past super El Niños. As regular readers know, there is no correlation between our snowfall and either El Niño or La Niña (the cool ocean waters off the coast of Peru), but our winter may follow a similar path to the previously documented episodes, or not.
The first graphic shows the three previously measured episodes of El Niño warm enough to be categorized as “super”, with the last bar an estimate from a newly developed climate model from the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR). The second graphic shows the snow water equivalent of the snowpack in our Yampa-White-Little Snake basin from the SNOTEL remote monitoring network, with the highest and lowest curves the maximum and minimum amounts recorded since the 1985-1986 winter. The yellow curve is the average, the darker blue curve was measured for the 2015-2016 winter, the green curve was measured for the 1997-1998 winter and the black curve is the current state of our snowpack.
A couple of observations: First, the slow start to this winter is immediately obvious, and second, the last two super El Niño winters had near average snowfall. Unfortunately, the SNOTEL network was not activated until the 1985-1986 winter so there is no graph for the first measured super El Niño. This winter may or may not follow the previous super El Niño winters, but I will note that an average winter still makes for an excellent ski season.
The quiet weather for the weekend looks to continue through at least midweek, with a possible pattern change forecast for the end of the work week or the following weekend. So enjoy the beautiful weekend and check back for more details about that in my next regularly scheduled weather narrative on Sunday afternoon.
Increasing winds ahead of midweek snow
Sunday, November 5, 2023
After reaching a high of 61 F this Sunday mid afternoon under mostly cloudy skies, temperatures have fallen into the mid fifties on this uncomfortably dark late afternoon in Steamboat Springs. Winds will pick up on Monday and especially Tuesday ahead of a cold front later in the day that will bring a bit of snow to town and modest amounts to the higher elevations through Wednesday evening. Much colder temperatures are forecast to stick around for the rest of the work week even as we see clearing skies by Thursday.
A broad trough of low pressure currently extending southward from the Gulf of Alaska is forecast to reluctantly move eastward ahead of a storm forecast to develop near the Aleutian Islands early in the work week. Breezes from the west have already increased ahead of the Gulf of Alaska storm, with winds forecast to strengthen on Monday and more so on Tuesday as the storm approaches our area.
The clouds are here to stay though midweek as a stream of Pacific moisture ahead of the storm is directed overhead. After a similar day Monday to today, high temperatures are forecast to drop into the mid fifties on Tuesday, which is still above our average of 48 F, along with wind gusts from the west and southwest as high as 40 mph in town and 50 mph at mountain top.
The storm is forecast to elongate to the southwest as it moves toward the Great Basin early in the work week, with the northern part of the modestly splitting storm forecast to bring a cold front through our area by late Tuesday afternoon or evening.
Snowfall should get going Tuesday night, with the snow continuing into Wednesday morning before tapering off during the afternoon and ending in the evening. We could see an inch of accumulation in town by Wednesday evening with 3-6” at the higher elevations. High temperatures on Wednesday will be in the low forties, with similar temperatures on Thursday despite the return of mostly sunny skies.
There should be some warming for Friday and the weekend, though a disturbance may graze our area later Friday. Be sure to check back for more details on the coming weekend weather in my next regularly scheduled weather narrative on Thursday afternoon.
