Major winter storm hits Tuesday morning
Monday, December 2, 2013
A storm currently situated to our northwest will affect our area perhaps as early as Monday night with light showers and very windy conditions. The cold front that will bring the very cold winter-like temperatures southward is now projected to move across the area a bit faster than earlier forecasted, perhaps as early as Tuesday morning. Good snows Tuesday should produce 8-16” on the hill by Wednesday morning. Our snow on Wednesday will be dependent upon how far south the frontal boundary moves, and current forecasts have this a but further north and more stationary. For this reason, I’m increasing the forecast a bit and I might expect an additional 6-12” after the morning report that will appear on the Thursday morning report.
There may be a break in snowfall Thursday and Friday before a Pacific wave rounds a building ridge in the Gulf of Alaska kicks the main part of the storm over us late Friday. More snow and likely the coldest temperatures of this arctic outbreak are expected then. Snow and cold will continue through the weekend as additional waves of energy form the north move over the area in the very cold and unstable air mass.
It appears that early in the next work week the ridge in the Gulf of Alaska that has shunted this very cold over our area will not break down as earlier forecast. A small wave is forecast early in the next work week and then a much larger storm is forecast mid week as another surge of arctic air moves over the west.
Some snow accumulations by Monday before a major winter-like storm affects our area on Tuesday
Sunday, December 1, 2013
Light snow will continue today and become slightly heavier tonight as a subtle wave grazes us in moist northwest flow. I might expect 3-6” on the hill by Monday afternoon based upon this morning’s model runs.
Skies should clear by Monday afternoon before a storm currently situated around the Gulf of Alaska will affect our area perhaps as early as Monday night with light showers. The cold front that will bring the very cold winter-like temperatures southward is now projected to move across the area a bit faster than earlier forecasted, perhaps as early as Tuesday morning. Good snows Tuesday should produce 6-12” on the hill by Wednesday morning. Our snow on Wednesday will be dependent upon how far south the frontal boundary moves, and I might expect an additional 4-8” during the day that will appear on the Thursday morning report.
There may be a break in snowfall Thursday morning before a Pacific wave rounds a building ridge in the Gulf of Alaska kicks the main part of the storm over us around Friday. More snow and likely the coldest temperatures of this arctic outbreak are expected then. Snow and cold will continue through the weekend as additional waves of energy form the north move over the area in the very cold and unstable air mass.
It appears that early in the next work week the ridge in the Gulf of Alaska that has shunted this very cold over our area will break down and allow a moderation of temperatures along the mountain slopes. However, inversions will develop and persist at lower elevations keeping mountain valleys in the deep freeze.
Winter blast still timed for mid week
Friday, November 29, 2013
After a nice Friday and Saturday, a weak wave approaching from the northwest will produce some light snow showers beginning Sunday morning and continuing through Monday around noon. This wave is trending slightly stronger in the models, and I might expect 3-6” on the hill by Monday afternoon based upon this morning’s model runs.
A nice Monday afternoon and Tuesday before a storm currently moving across Alaska will affect our area perhaps as early as Tuesday night. . Some energy splits from this storm by Wednesday and drags cold air across the northern third of the west. The rest of the storm drops south along the west coast and turns the flow over our area to the southwest. Good snows by Tuesday night or Wednesday morning should occur along the frontal boundary in our proximity.
There are differences in how the storm to our west evolves, but cold winter-like temperatures are expected. Currently, it appears the front will become quasi-stationary over our area from Tuesday night through Thursday or so, keeping the coldest air to our north There will be periods of moderate to heavy snow as energy ejects from the storm to our west along the frontal boundary until a Pacific wave rounds a building ridge in the Gulf of Alaska and kicks the main part of the storm over us around Friday. More snow and colder temperatures are expected then, and into the weekend as additional waves of energy form the north move over the area in the very cold and unstable air mass.
The ridge in the Gulf of Alaska is handled differently by different models, so it is not clear if this winter pattern persists into the following week.
Well advertised pattern change still forecast to occur midweek
Thursday, November 28, 2013
Some very light snow is a possibility during the day Sunday, but amounts will be minimal.
Attention turns to the pattern change around midweek that was forecast as early as a week ago. A storm currently moving across Alaska will rapidly intensify in the Gulf of Alaska the weekend. Some energy splits from this storm by Wednesday and drags cold air across the northern third of the west. The rest of the storm drops south along the west coast and turns the flow over our area to the southwest. Good snow by Tuesday night or Wednesday morning should occur along the frontal boundary in our proximity.
Snow should be relatively steady until intensifying later in the work week as a cold wave from the polar regions kicks the storm over California to the west and over our area. I would expect significant accumulations from Wednesday through Friday before very cold and dryer mid-winter like air will moves over our area by Friday and especially Saturday.
Strong inversion are likely to develop and persist, keepiing mountain valleys in the deep freeze even as the upper elevations begin to moderate by the end of the weekend.
Likely light snow this weekend followed by big storm potential as storm track shifts
Monday, November 25, 2013
As the departing storm soaks the Gulf Coast and the the east coast during Thanksgiving week, a ridge over the west coast produces generally warm temperatures and dry weather until the weekend. A wave to our northeast grazes the area on Tuesday bringing some slight cooling and clouds before temperatures warm and skies around mid-week.
A strong storm in the Pacific crashes into the west coast ridge around Thanksgiving Day allowing some precipitation to reach southern California by Friday. Coincidentally, a strong wave breaks off from the polar vortex and moves south across Alaska, intensifying in the Gulf of Alaska by Saturday. A piece of energy from this storm is currently forecast to move over our area sometime this weekend producing snow as the mountain-top flow turns to the northwest and moistens.
There is a lot of uncertainty with regards to how much interaction between this wave in northwest flow and the storm moving eastward from southern California. Previous forecasts had a dry forecast for the weekend, but current forecasts are more optimistic.
But more certain is that a storm cycle for the northwest and Rocky Mountains begins as the Gulf of Alaska low begins to move south and east. Likely heavy snow starts this weekend along the northwest coast and move inland before reaching our area around Tuesday. Current forecasts have this as a major and long-lasting pattern change that may provide significant snows and cold winter temperatures through at least early December.
