Snow ends this evening with dry weather to follow
Tuesday, December 24, 2013
The well advertised wave moving through northwest flow did not begin to affect our area till around 4am this morning. We had a burst of snowfall between around 9-10am that was falling at several inches per hour, and another band looks to cross the area later this afternoon. The snow that fell earlier was relatively dense, and with some round graupel particles mixed in, the snow should fill in the tracks on the hill nicely. Temperatures should be falling through the day and hopefully we can get some accumulating snow crystals called dendrites to add a layer of light and fluffy powder for later today. I expect outstanding skiing on the hill today as the storm passes through.
If skies clear tonight, it could be a chilly start to the day tomorrow, although it should be a brilliantly sunny day. A dry wave passes Thursday and that may knock temperatures down a few degrees before they rebound to produce unseasonably warm weather by Friday. Valleys will likely stay cool as temperature inversions reform and persist over the the fresh snowpack.
Another weak wave to our north that grazes the area on Saturday will create more seasonable temperatures that look to last into and possibly through the next work week. Models are struggling with the forecast for the following weekend as one flattens the ridge in the Gulf of Alaska possibly leading to some weather for our area while another rebuilds the ridge and keeps us dry.
Final wave in this storm cycle passes early Tuesday for more snow
Monday, December 23, 2013
It looks like we are going to add to our 2 foot storm total as the final wave affects our area beginning after midnight. This wave is relatively quick moving, but it is moist and cool and in northwest flow. We sometimes get more snowfall than expected with this setup, and optimistically I see another 5-10” on the hill by tomorrow afternoon. I would expect some Steamboat Magic to occur between report time at 5am and ski time around 9am creating several hours of heavy snowfall rates.
We may see some sun in the valley by tomorrow afternoon as snow showers on the hill wind down, and if skies clear Tuesday night, Christmas day will start sunny and cool. A weak wave passes by on Thursday, but that likely won’t even affect our sunny skies that are forecast to persist into the weekend. A wave in northwest flow is currently forecast to produce some snow showers by Saturday afternoon, but the eventual westward extent of this wave will determine how much snow we receive.
Skies clear after the weekend disturbance passes, so the beginning of the work week should start out nice before another wave in northwest flow is forecast to affect us as early as Tuesday.
More snow through Tuesday
Sunday, December 22, 2013
About 2” on my deck this morning from about 9pm last night, although the Steamboat ski area reported 7.5” at mid and 8” up top on the morning report. A ridge over the Gulf of Alaska is forcing moist northwest flow over our area, and embedded waves will continue to produce light snow through today and most of tomorrow. One such wave is currently moving through the area, and another is timed for tonight, with both producing another 5-10” by the Monday morning report.
Snow showers may taper off by the end of the day Monday before beginning again early Tuesday as the last wave in this series passes over the area midday. Only light snow is expected, and the fast movement of this last wave should only produce 1-3” by Wednesday morning’s report.
Warming and drying should commence Christmas Day and last into Thursday, though valleys become noticeably colder than the hill as inversions reform and strengthen. A dry and weak wave grazes our area on Friday, producing some clouds and slightly lower temperatures. Weather will turn nice again for at least the first part of the weekend before another storm is forecast around Sunday.
Snow through Monday
Friday, December 20, 2013
I had about 2” on my deck this morning, and light snow has persisted this morning. The Steamboat ski area is reporting 4” new as of 11am this morning, and I would expect another inch or two before a break in snowfall occurs tonight. We did get that overrunning event last night which brought snow a bit earlier than I anticipated.
Models have trended a bit stronger with the next wave timed for Saturday afternoon into the night, and possibly another one for Sunday morning. Snow should increase throughout the day with an inch or two by the time the lifts close. Of course, that will be reported in Sunday morning’s report, so with that I would expect 4-8” by Sunday morning, with additional snow during the day.
Generally light snow will continue through Monday, with the valleys possibly seeing some sun by late in the day. Not much additional accumulations are expected during the day to add to the likely 2-4” report on Monday morning. A weak wave passes Tuesday night in northwest flow, but models have trended drier, and no significant precipitation is expected. Much drier air and sunshine infiltrates the area on Wednesday, although another weak and dry wave will create some clouds late on Thursday in continued northwest flow. Otherwise quiet and pleasant weather is expected into the beginning of next weekend.
Warm front stronger than expected and will delay snows till Friday
Thursday, December 19, 2013
A storm along the southern California coast has created southwest flow over our area that has pushed a cold front to our north today. However, this cold front is forecast to slip into our area later today or tonight, and may produce some snow as the southwest flow aloft overruns the front. It appears that weak northwest flow will develop behind the front sometime on Friday leading to a better chance of accumulating snows in the 2-4” range by the end of the day.
As the California low moves along the Mexican border and eventually east of us by Saturday, unsettled weather with persistent snow showers will continue through Saturday and Sunday. Furthermore, additional waves of energy in the northwest flow will help to intermittently intensify the showers, though amounts are still expected to be light. I would expect 2-4” each day of the weekend before the skies clear by mid-day Monday.
A nice day Tuesday before another wave form the northwest is expected by late in the day or Wednesday, though current model forecasts have only light snow predicted. Yet another dry wave is expected to drop temperatures a bit later in the work week, but no precipitation is currently forecast with this wave.
It appears a significant pattern change is lurking in the extended forecast period sometime around the new year, but global numerical models are having a tough time predicting the details. As always, stay tuned for developments!
