Winter storm begins this evening
Friday, January 3, 2014
A strong winter storm approaches the area today with clouds appearing later in the afternoon, and snow showers should begin in the cooling atmosphere by this evening. Periods of moderate to heavy snow should occur through Saturday as the main wave passes through. Snow should become more showery in nature behind the main wave, but at least two distinct reinforcing shots of cold air later Saturday and again later Sunday will keep sometimes heavy snow showers going through the weekend.
I’m a little concerned that the winds could turn westerly Friday night into Saturday and negatively affect the snow quality Saturday morning, but the flow does turn northwest later in the day. Furthermore, unlike the New Years storm, we should have cooling or static temperatures during the entire event which will limit the wind speeds and minimize the damage westerly winds usually cause at Steamboat.
I would guess around 3-6” of wind affected snow by the Saturday morning report. Westerly winds should turn northwesterly by the afternoon as snow showers continue, especially around another surge of cold air currently timed for around sunset. An additional 3-6” of very light and fluffy powder is expected by the Sunday morning report as snow densities fall below 5%. Winds from the northwest will pick up again later Sunday as the last surge of cold air enters the area. Snow showers will end by midnight Sunday after another 3-6”, which will be reported Monday morning.
A series of weak and disorganized Pacific waves move across the area or split around the area beginning midweek, and I expect much milder temperatures and at least some snow from these. Snow may begin late Tuesday or Wednesday and continue to the end of the workweek as a couple of these waves influence the area. Current model solutions have a break next weekend before another storm is forecast sometime late Sunday or early Monday.
Storms every few days to continue
Thursday, January 2, 2014
As skies cleared behind yesterday’s storm, valleys markedly cooled last night. This created another round of temperature inversions that will keep the lower elevations cold before they are mixed out by the next storm on Saturday. Today and most of tomorrow should be mostly sunny with mountain slopes warming far more than the valleys before high clouds appear ahead of the approaching storm later Friday.
Snow showers should begin in the cooling atmosphere by Friday evening as the storm moves over the area. Periods of moderate to heavy snow should follow by Saturday morning as the main wave passes through. Snow should become more showery in nature behind the main wave, but at least two distinct reinfocing shots of cold air later Saturday and again later Sunday will keep sometimes heavy snow showers going through the weekend.
I’m a little concerned that the winds could turn westerly Friday night into Saturday morning and negatively affect the snow quality first thing Saturday morning, but the flow does turn northwest later in the day. Furthermore, unlike the New Years storm, we should have cooling during the entire event which will limit the wind speeds and minimize the damage westerly winds usually cause at Steamboat.
Snow amounts are bit tricky at this point due to the westerly flow in the beginning of the storm, but I would guess around 4-8” each day of the weekend, leading to a storm total of 8-16” by Monday morning.
A series of weak and disorganized Pacific wavess move across the area or split around the area beginning midweek, and I expect much milder temperatures and at least some snow from these. This storm track is currently forecast to continue through next weekend as stronger, but still relatively warm Pacific waves cross the area late in the workweek and again late next weekend.
Snow likely late Friday into Saturday
Wednesday, January 1, 2014
I had about 4” on my deck this morning, which matched the 7” mid and 6” top Steamboat phone report (when it FINALLY came out at 8am, EXTREMELY LATE WITH NO APOLOGY OR EXPLANATION) after subtracting the 2” we received during the day yesterday.
I was disappointed we accumulated only a reported 0.25” between 5am and 9am as I was counting on an additional 2-4”, but this storm did not cooperate. Snow showers will continue today before skies clear for Thursday and some of Friday as mountain slopes warm.
High clouds will infiltrate the area by later Friday as the next storm approaches. Snow showers will begin late in the day or evening before intensifying during the day Saturday. The European model has been most consistent in for forecasting a wetter and cooler pattern, and the American models seem to be grudgingly moving toward that solution. If the European solution verifies, snow showers may continue through Sunday as another wave of cool air moves over the area. At this point, model uncertainty is too high to predict snow amounts.
Some clearing should ensue by the beginning of the new workweek before a disorganized wave approaching from the west moves over the area around midweek.
Snow on track for Tuesday into Wednesday
Monday, December 30, 2013
The latest model runs have thrown some uncertainty into the short term forecast, especially for Wednesday morning, as one of the American models have brought the last wave for Wednesday morning across the area stronger than earlier forecast. What is more certain, however, is that there will be two main periods of snow occurring around mid-morning Tuesday and again after midnight Tuesday, with much lighter snow or even a break later Tuesday afternoon into the evening.
My gut feeling is to believe the snowier solution, so I might expect 6-12” by Wednesday afternoon for both storms. The lack of cold air will limit accumulations during the day Tuesday so that only 2-4” are expected by sunset, with an additional 4-8” early Wednesday morning into the early afternoon.
Snow showers will end Wednesday evening and mountain slopes should warm for Thursday and Friday with periods of sun. Another storm approaches the area for the weekend and light snow should begin again Friday night. Forecasts from a week ago had this wave heralding a pattern change to very cold temperatures, however current model trends keep this wave progressive and limit snowfall to only light amounts by Saturday morning with seasonably cool air.
It appears the sun returns later Saturday into Sunday morning as the west coast ridge rebuilds, forcing the storminess to our east. There is a lot of forecast uncertainty after that as the Gulf of Alaska ridge is forecast to either break down or be undercut by westerly Pacific flow for a period of time.
Snow Tuesday and again around the weekend
Sunday, December 29, 2013
A weak and dry wave will brush by our area on Monday leading to only cloudiness. Another wave in northwest flow should be far more productive forcing snow to begin Tuesday morning, however the absence of cold air will limit the big accumulations during the day. The last shortwave moving through the northwest flow will bring colder air early Wednesday morning, but this time the moisture is limited, though snow showers should will likely continue through the morning. A small shift to the north or south would change the forecast, but currently I expect 4-8” by noon Wednesday before a transient ridge moves over the area bringing some sun for Wednesday aftternoon and a sunny day for Thursday.
Showers will begin again Friday ahead of a much colder and more significant system that is currently forecast to sweep through the area Saturday. Earlier model solutions had this wave beginning a long-lasting pattern shift, but current model runs have the Gulf of Alaska ridge rebuilding and forcing the coldest air to slide to our east.
A cold and snowy weekend will then be followed by warming and drying early in the next workweek as the Gulf of Alaska ridge expands over our area.
