More snowfall for this weekend and midweek

Thursday, February 18, 2021

Cloudy skies and temperatures of 18 F at the Bob Adams airport and 5 F at the top of the Steamboat Ski Area are currently observed in the Yampa Valley late this Thursday morning. The snow looks to take a break down in the valley today with peeks of sun, though light snow showers look to hold on over the hill as the cool, moist, unstable and favorable northwest flow continues. A small storm is expected on Friday as temperatures rise followed by a moderate and colder storm on Saturday. Even though snow showers will persist on Sunday, especially at the higher elevations, they will gradually diminish before ending on Monday. Our next storm arrives around midweek.

Our active weather pattern in Steamboat Springs is delivering the goods, with 16” of fluffy low-density powder over the last three days at mid-mountain and 24” up top. While the first half of the storm behaved as expected, the second half of the storm from Tuesday night through Wednesday overproduced at the higher elevations, with 6” falling up top during the day yesterday and piling on top of the 11” that was reported at 5 am. This time, the shorter-range weather forecast models had the correct forecast, though they often over-predict which makes relying on them for every forecast problematic. Perhaps they are most reliable for our area when we are in the favorable northwest flow, and I will attempt to incorporate that insight into future snowfall guesses going forward.

Currently, a vortex of frigid air centered over Baffin Bay just west of Greenland is elongated across northern Canada, and chunks of this air mass are mixing with Pacific storms as they traverse the Gulf of Alaska. Ahead of the next cold storm forecast for later Saturday, a shallow ridge of high pressure quickly moves through our area on Friday. Even though we will see warming temperatures during the day, there is enough moisture embedded in the favorable northwest flow to produce light snow that will begin after the Friday morning report and possibly last into the night. While we generally don’t do well with snowfall under warming temperatures, weather forecast models insist there could be 2-5” by the Saturday morning report, most of which would fall during the previous day.

Snowfall may stop for a time around early Saturday morning before restarting as the next colder storm approaches. Snowfall should pick up through the day before the cold front passes through in the afternoon or evening, with snowfall continuing overnight in the cold, moist, unstable and favorable northwest flow. Based upon what happened this past Wednesday, I would guess 5-10” of snowfall could be reported on the Sunday morning report at mid-mountain, with more possible at the higher elevations.

Snow showers will hang on to the higher elevations on Sunday, though additional accumulations should be light. It does look like we will see a precipitation-free period for Monday and the first half of Tuesday before another cold and likely significant storm is forecast for later Tuesday and Wednesday. I’ll have some snowfall guesses in my next regularly scheduled weather narrative on Sunday afternoon.

Snowy week ahead

Sunday, February 14, 2021

The Steamboat Springs area is seeing mostly sunny skies and cold temperatures of 0 F at the Bob Adams airport and 9 F at the top of Mt. Werner this Sunday noon. We will see a break in the snowfall through today as the storm that grazed our area last night stays to our south. Snowfall starts up again Monday and lasts through Wednesday before we see a second brief break on Thursday, followed by more snowfall as we head into the following weekend.

Snowfall since Thursday night ended up at the low end of the forecast range these past three days, with 16” at mid-mountain and 22” up top. While the cold air associated with that grazing storm arrived last night as advertised, the storm drifted far enough away from our area to preclude the significant accumulations that were possible.

So enjoy the sunny skies today and crisp winter temperatures as another storm moving in flow from the northwest begins to affect our area on Washington’s Birthday. Some intermittent and light snow showers early in another cold day should give way to heavier and more persistent snow later Monday into Tuesday as favorable moist northwest flow ahead of the storm encroaches on our area and pushes the coldest temperatures to our east. Like the storm last night, this one is also expected to split as it crosses the Great Basin on Tuesday, though not as much, so expect our heaviest snowfall Monday night with lighter snowfall continuing on Tuesday and Wednesday.

There could be 4-8” of snow on the Tuesday morning report, with another 1-4” falling during the day Tuesday. While Tuesday will warm up a bit, the storm will bring another round of cold temperatures for Wednesday and Thursday, with another 1-4” possible during Tuesday night and again on Wednesday before the snowfall tapers off by Thursday morning.

A shallow ridge of high pressure passes overhead on Thursday behind the departing storm and ahead of our next one that could start snowfall as early as early Friday morning in fast flow from the northwest. However, weather forecast models disagree if we will see several waves in northwest flow through the weekend, like the current American GFS, or more of a consolidated storm similar to the latest European ECMWF. So we may see a couple of waves of snowfall centered around Friday and Saturday nights, or more of a single event centered on Saturday.

Current forecasts have another break in the snowfall after the weekend, though this one may also be short-lived as more possibilities for snow emerge during the following work week. Stay tuned to my next regularly scheduled weather narrative on Thursday afternoon to see how the upcoming weekend event is developing.

A couple of storms to bring significant snowfall through early Sunday

Thursday, February 11, 2021

The Steamboat Springs area saw snow showers this morning along with some peeks of sun as temperatures climbed into the mid-thirties by this Thursday noon. A warm and breezy storm will pass through our area from tonight through Saturday morning followed by a short break around midday. A much colder storm then quickly follows for Saturday night.

A frigid vortex of cold air is stretched across southern Canada and has brought bitterly cold temperatures to the northern Midwest and East. The current storm track is along the boundary that separates that cold air from much warmer air to the south and southwest, and fortuitously is over our area. A storm currently just off the northern West Coast will move inland tonight and bring snows to our area from tonight through Friday night.

Similar to last Friday, the storm is warm and has a lot of moisture, so expect snowfall to pick up tonight and become moderate to heavy on Friday as the winds turn to be first from the west and eventually from the west-northwest later in the day. I would expect 3-6” to be reported at mid-mountain by the Friday morning report with an additional 4-8” falling during the day, with higher amounts at higher elevations likely. Another 5-10” is forecast for Friday night for a 9-18” Saturday morning report.

Some energy ejecting out of a strong storm near the Aleutian Islands is forecast to move across the Gulf of Alaska and mix with some of that bitterly cold air over western Canada and cross the northern West Coast Saturday morning. We’ll see a break between storms for the first part of Saturday, though the snowfall may not stop but only become lighter in intensity.

But snowfall will again become moderate to heavy later Saturday and overnight when the much colder storm moves by. While the center of the storm eventually digs into the Desert Southwest, additional cold air mixes with the system as it moves across the Great Basin, and it is not clear if our winds will turn to be from the favorable northwest or not. At this point, we could see as little as 3-6” by the Sunday morning mid-mountain report, or as much as 6-12” under the more favorable scenario. Additionally, the winds will die down and temperatures will be fifteen to twenty degrees colder than Saturday, with the temperatures falling during the day and creating low-density, fluffy powder.

Much lighter and more showery snowfall is forecast to continue through the day Sunday and overnight as the storm moves eastward to our south. It appears this storm will be strong enough to displace the cold vortex of air over Canada to the east, though there are indications that more cold air from the northern latitudes returns, but not quite as cold.

Another piece of that Aleutian storm is forecast to eject eastward on Sunday and take a similar path to the previous storm. We won’t see the heavy snowfall we will likely see on Saturday night as we will already be in the cold air, but snowfall is currently indicated to start up again after a brief break on Monday and last through most of the work week. The persistent low-density snowfall may quickly pile up, though I won’t venture a snowfall guess at this point as my attention is focused on this weekend.

I’d like to mention that I added the live Colorado Avalanche Information Center’s (CAIC) threat map to the SnowAlarm home page, so I encourage all backcountry and sidecountry users to check this valuable and easily accessible resource before beginning their journey.

Additionally, I’d like to mention to new users that the home page has all of the information needed for a safe and comfortable day on the slopes. Right at the top I show the town and mountain-top temperatures and wind so I know how to dress. I’d like to mention that you cannot trust the mountain-top wind and temperatures from the Steamboat website or phone report since their sensors are hung off the Patrol Headquarters building, and the location shadows westerly winds and inflates afternoon temperatures as the sun heats the deck. I grab my data from the Desert Research Institute weather station at the top of the Morningside lift and the Bob Adams airport. New snowfall as well as the Powdercam movie are also easily accessible so you can inspect the goods.

My next weather narrative will be issued Sunday afternoon, likely late Sunday afternoon as I hope to be skiing powder all morning! I’ll post the storm totals and have more details about the snowy week ahead.

Snow restarts on Tuesday after a short break

Sunday, February 7, 2021

The sun has returned late this Sunday morning to Steamboat Springs with breezy winds from the west and temperatures of 35 F at the Bob Adams airport and 13 F at the top of Mt. Werner. We’ll have a couple of days of dry weather to dig out from our recent storm cycle before a storm is forecast for Tuesday. Another short break is advertised for later Wednesday and early Thursday before the snow machine restarts later Thursday and possibly lasts through the weekend.

Snowfall totals for the Steamboat Ski Area were impressive, with 25.5” of desperately needed snow falling at mid-mountain between last Wednesday night and this Sunday morning and 47” up top. The large totals were due to the moisture-rich storm track that is currently riding over a ridge of high pressure in the Gulf of Alaska and separating the cold air over the eastern two thirds of the country and the warm air over the Desert Southwest.

The storm track is expected to waver over our area over the next week, with the warm air to our southwest currently winning the battle of the air masses and pushing the storm track just to the north of our area. So expect dry skies with ample sunshine today and tomorrow as the cold and moist air is relegated to our north and east.

Some moisture and energy currently moving underneath the ridge of high pressure in the Gulf of Alaska will move through our area on Tuesday. As this wave originates in the data-sparse Pacific, there is uncertainty with respect to the amount of moisture than eventually travels over our area, and best guess right now is that we could see around 4-8” of relatively dense and possibly wind-affected snow at mid-mountain by the Wednesday morning report.

A lobe of energy spinning around a vortex of cold air over the central Canadian Plains is forecast to bring another surge of arctic air into the northern U.S. Wednesday night. Ahead of that surge, snows should end later Wednesday with Wednesday night and the first part of Thursday expected to be dry. But that surge of arctic air will eventually push the storm track back south and over our area by later Thursday as a stationary front takes up residence in our proximity.

The result is another long-duration snowfall event that begins Thursday night and lasts through the weekend. Waves of Pacific energy and moisture, in concert with a westward surge of arctic from western Canada, are forecast to weaken and undercut the ridge of high pressure over the Gulf of Alaska. The Pacific waves are then forecast to move over the stationary front near our area, creating periods of moderate to heavy snowfall.

Right now, Friday into Friday night is looking likely for the heaviest accumulations, with another Pacific wave timed for Sunday. There is substantial forecast uncertainty with respect to how far south that wave will eventually travel, so it is not clear if it will snow as hard on Sunday as it probably will on Friday.

And the good news for our snowy February continues through the following week as additional storms are in the weather forecast. Stay tuned to my next regularly scheduled weather narrative on Thursday afternoon as snowfall totals for the long-duration event come into focus. And I’d like to welcome new readers and mention that by clicking on the Amazon banner embedded within this forecast when viewed from the website, or on the home page, within the 24 hours before making a purchase directly supports this site. While private forecasts have been proliferating over the years, know that it is unusual for a forecaster to concentrate all of their resources on such a localized area. I do this as a community service, and hope that you can support my efforts either through my affiliates or by subscribing to a paid product.

Snowy week ahead

Wednesday, February 3, 2021

The first in a series of advertised storms arrived this afternoon, courtesy of a snow squall, and Steamboat Springs is currently seeing light to moderate snow late this Thursday afternoon. Snows are possible for every day during the upcoming week, with the heaviest and most persistent snow forecast for Friday and to a lesser extent Friday night.

The main part of the storm today is still back in Utah, so snow will continue through the night. The storm is about 6 hours slower than I originally thought in the last weather narrative, so the expected snowfall for the Thursday morning report is now in the 4-8” range.

As the storm departs our area on Thursday, we will be left with persistent northwest flow between a ridge of high pressure over the Gulf of Alaska and a deep and cold area of low pressure over the East and the Midwest. The Park mountain range just east of Steamboat Springs is favored under this regime, which is forecast to last through upcoming week, so expect some snowfall for most of the days as the air is forced up the slope of the mountains and orographic, or terrain-driven, snowfall ensues.

Waves of energy and moisture will periodically pass overhead and increase snowfall rates, with one potent wave passing overhead on Friday and Friday night. We may see several more inches during the day Thursday before snows pick up Thursday night followed by periods of moderate to heavy snow on Friday and Friday night, likely most intense on Friday afternoon.

If weather model forecasts hold, we could see 3-6” of snow on the Friday morning report and 8-16” by Saturday morning, with more than half of that falling during the day Friday. Snow will continue at lesser rates Saturday morning before tapering off in the afternoon and overnight.

Though we will see a break on Sunday between waves, it is not clear if snows will stop or just become very light. And another couple of waves may move overhead or nearby on Monday and possibly Wednesday, though that may change as these impulses are hard to time since they are embedded in fast flow from the sparsely observed Pacific.

The setup for this upcoming week is ideal for our area, though our eventual snowfall will be determined by how long we can stay in the moist northwest flow. Though weather forecast models agree on the wave for around Monday, they disagree on whether the ridge of high pressure over the Gulf of Alaska moves toward our area by midweek and deflects the storm track to our northeast, like the European ECMWF, or the ridge stays put and allows another wave to pass overhead in northwest flow, like the American GFS.

The storm track will be determined by the outcome of the battle between the warm air under the ridge of high pressure in the Gulf of Alaska and the very cold air over the Midwest and East. Eventually, both weather models do have the ridge moving inland late in the work week or the following weekend, though it is accompanied by fast westerly flow from the Pacific moving through the ridge, and this weather pattern can also be productive for the Rockies, especially if low-level cold air can hang around.

My next scheduled weather narrative is on Sunday afternoon, and I’ll have some hopefully impressive storm totals to talk about as well as discuss the additional snowfall expected during the following work week.

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23 November 2021

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