Friday, February 14, 2014
Well, a disappointing forecast for today as I expected 6-12”, and the Steamboat ski area reported 1” mid / 3” top this morning. We did get the cool air I expected, and the wind direction was favorable, but the storm did not produce for us, though the Summit County resorts and Winter Park did pick up around 7”. I’m currently attributing this to spottier moisture than forecast, but I’m willing to entertain other ideas. The skiing was very good though, as the dense snow provided a soft and creamy surface yesterday and today.
Considering how much less snow was in last night’s storm than originally forecast, I’ll lower my expectations to 3-6” by tomorrow morning before the main part of the storm passes. Showers will likely continue through the day and most of the evening before a small break ahead of the next wave which is currently trending weaker in the model guidance. Showers will begin again later Sunday morning and peak around midnight, leaving 2-5” on the ground by the Monday morning report.
Dry air invades the area for Monday and Tuesday leading to beautiful days and cool nights. A complex storm currently in the Gulf of Alaska will begin influencing our weather on Wednesday as a piece of energy breaks off and travels over our area around then. This is a fast moving storm, and will be quickly followed by the main storm as it enters the west coast on Thursday.
This storm is currently forecast to be very cold, similar to the storms before this current warm storm cycle established itself several weeks ago. Details will evolve as we get closer to the main event near the end of the workweek.
Thursday, February 13, 2014
The Steamboat ski area reported 3” at mid / summit this morning, and their 11am update reported an additional 1” mid / 2” summit. A couple of embedded waves in moist northwest flow pass by the area tonight and again later Friday into Saturday morning, keeping snow going through Saturday. Another fast moving wave passes over the area Sunday night increasing snowfall again before the sun reappears later Monday.
I really don’t have many changes to the previous forecast other than expecting more snow from the Sunday night wave. About 6-12” of snow are expected by tomorrow morning with tonight’s wave as there is some cool air associated with it. Snows decrease early in the day and temperatures warm, however, snow should increase later in the day as the second and weaker wave grazes our area that evening into Saturday morning. I expect another 4-8” for the Saturday morning report as very light snow or snow showers continues through the much of the day.
Snows will lighten and may end, or not, late Saturday or early Sunday before the last fast moving wave in this storm cycle affects our area by late in the day Sunday. This is a compact and fast moving system that will likely leave 4-8” on hill for the Monday morning report.
We should have a beautiful couple of days with seasonably warm temperatures early in the workweek before a grazing wave passes near our area midweek. The model trends have been weakening this storm, and the current forecast for precipitation is uncertain.
A cold and significant trough is forecast by several models to enter the west coast later in the workweek. This may begin affecting our weather by the end of the workweek as the flow backs to the southwest ahead of the storm, and a cold and snowy weekend may be in our future as the trough is currently forecast to move over our area around then.
Tuesday, February 11, 2014
Snow showers are currently ongoing up on the hill, though accumulations are very light. A moist wave in northwest flow increase the intensity a bit this evening, but only 1-4” are expected by Wednesday morning. However, another long-duration event is forecast to begin later in the day and will keep snows going through the early part of the weekend.
Snow showers will give way to more persistent snows in the afternoon or early evening tomorrow as another surge of moisture is carried over our area in generally northwest by the very moist polar jet stream. Temperatures are again expected to be warm, especially before atmospheric cooling increases early Thursday. I would expect 2-6” by Thursday morning, but periods of moderate to heavy snow during the day and night as an embedded wave approaches Thursday and passes through the area by early Friday. About 6-12” of snow are expected by Friday morning before snows decrease early in the day. However, they will ramp up again later in the day as yet another wave grazes our area that evening.
We may receive another 4-8” by Saturday morning at which point a transient ridge moves overhead, perhaps even revealing some sun. A very fast moving wave may again yield some snow showers by Sunday, but accumulation are expected to be light.
We should have a beautiful couple of days early in the workweek before another approaching storm makes landfall along the west coast around the middle of the week. This storm will be different than the previous two as southwest flow develops ahead of this digging system. Lot of uncertainty with this storm, but it may significantly affect our weather near the end of the workweek.
Sunday, February 9, 2014
Temperatures have warmed as forecast, and I had 3” of wet and heavy snow on my deck this morning, though most of that fell last evening before midnight. The Steamboat ski area reported 7” mid / 6” top at 5am, with 4” of that coming yesterday. As of 11am, only an additional 1” was reported at mid mountain, though some sort of light precipitation is still falling on the hill.
As I mentioned in the last forecast blog, I still don’t expect better quality snow until tonight when the atmosphere finally sees some cooling ahead of a well defined wave that passes over the area on Monday. There is not a lot of cool air associated with this wave, and temperatures are again expected to oscillate around the its arrival, but I would expect 4-8” to be reported by Monday morning with an additional 4-8” by Tuesday morning, with most of that occurring during the day Monday.
Snow looks to mostly end by Tuesday morning, though light showers may reoccur on the hill by the afternoon. Temperatures will warm again on Wednesday in advance of another possible long-duration event beginning later in the day. As in the last storm cycle, this event is forced by a warm and moist polar jet heavily modified by subtropical moisture and warmth. I would expect similar results to this storm, with Thursday and Friday being warm and windy with snow before some cooling occurs later Friday or early Saturday. Snows look to continue through most of Saturday before a quick moving ridge warms temperatures further by the end of the weekend.
Weather then turns dry for a few days before there is general model agreement of a storm for around midweek.
Saturday, February 8, 2014
The Steamboat ski area reported 3” mid and 3.5” top at the 11am update, and I see light snow on the upper mountain looking out my window. This weather pattern continues to make the forecast difficult for Steamboat as atmospheric temperatures are expected to stay mostly static or slightly warm until Sunday evening when some cool air finally works into the area. I’m inclined to dismiss what I consider the wildly optimistic Denver forecast of 22-36” by Sunday night for the Gore range and side closer to the saner 16-20” forecast for the Park range by Monday afternoon from the Grand Junction office.
We will get some snow in this pattern, but it will be heavy and wind-affected. And if valley temperatures rise much further, which they are forecast to do, we may even see the ‘R’ word (rain) down here by tomorrow. Since about 3” has already been reported, I would expect 4-8” to be reported by tomorrow morning. While light snow will continue during the day Sunday on the mountain, moderate to heavy snow will likely accompany the front bringing the cooler air into the region Sunday evening.
Snows will continue Monday and taper off by Tuesday morning. I would expect 6-12” by Monday morning, with an additional 3-6” reported by Tuesday morning.
Temperature will warm again by Tuesday afternoon ahead of the next wave currently timed for midweek. There is model disagreement with respect to the strength of this wave so snowfall amounts are uncertain at this time. The moist and relatively warm polar jet is forecast to continue over out area through the workweek and into the weekend keeping warm and unsettled weather over the region.