Thursday, April 3, 2014
Saturday will likely be a typical unsettled spring day ahead of a splitting trough that is forecast to enter the west coast on Friday. The northern part of the trough looks to carry most of the cold air north of our area while the southern part will keep the atmosphere moist and unstable. The relatively warm spring temperatures will help showers develop early Saturday and continue through the day, with a rain / now mix at lower elevations and snow at the higher elevations. Though there may be periods of sun between showers, I expect the showers to grow heavier and more numerous in the afternoon, though accumulations will wait until the evening when the trough moves over the area.
Wednesday, April 2, 2014
I had 3” on my deck this morning at 9 am, and the Steamboat ski area reported 2” mid / 3” top at 5 am. As of the 11 am update, they are reporting an additional 3” mid and 5” top. We had some Steamboat magic up top between 4 am and 7 am as 4” of snow fell in those 3 hours, with 2.5” falling between 4 am and 5 am!
The current complex storm will continue to produce snow for the mountain through tomorrow, though there may be a mix at the base during the afternoons. We can expect continued showers during the day before some cool air moves over the area after sunset today and increases snowfall rates for the night. Considering that 3” has already fallen at mid-mountain after the morning report, I would expect 5-10” to be reported tomorrow morning, especially if we get another round of Steamboat magic early tomorrow. Furthermore, some lightening has already been observed to our west, and we may have some of that this evening.
Snows will become more showery in nature as tomorrow progresses, though they may produce brief and localized moderate to heavy snowfall rates, similar to yesterday afternoon and likely this afternoon. Snows will end by midnight after leaving 1-4”, and skies will clear as a transient ridge moves over Friday. Though the day will start cool, though temperatures will quickly warm and showers will likely redevelop Friday afternoon.
Another trough quickly follows the ridging Friday to start snows up again Saturday morning, with showers growing heavier as some cool air enters our area around sunset Saturday. This trough is forecast to undergo some splitting, though future model runs should acquire a better handle on to what degree this occurs. Regardless, there should be some significant accumulations by Sunday morning, perhaps in the 3-7” range.
The slow moving trough will keep showers going through Sunday, though a trailing wave with a fair bit of cool air looks to reinvigorate snows beginning later Sunday, perhaps around sunset. We should do quite well from this trailing wave as it is embedded within northwest flow, and I would expect another 5-10” by Monday morning with an additional 1-4” during the day.
Finally, and for those looking for some sun, models forecast a large and strong ridge to move over the area starting Tuesday and likely lasting for the majority of the remaining workweek. Temperatures will be unseasonably warm and the weather will feel like late spring. There appears to be more energy in the Pacific behind this ridge, though models currently disagree on how this energy interacts with the ridge. Nonetheless, the active spring pattern looks to continue after then.
Monday, March 31, 2014
Though the powdercam at the top of Sunshine Peak read just under 4” at 5 am, the Steamboat ski area reported 6” mid / 7” up top for the morning report, and I measured 4” on my deck. I’m at a loss in explaining why the powdercam did not reflect the reported measurement since they are located in close proximity.
The snow on the upper mountain was wind affected, and the runs with a western aspect were inconsistent. However, areas protected from the wind skied creamy and bouncy, as the snow that fell last night was relatively dense.
Surprisingly, the best run I found on the front side of the hill was High Noon down to Rolex. High Noon had been recently groomed and there was a nice layer of fluff on top of a soft surface. And the snow had blown into the right side of Rolex, especially in the lower half of the run. There I found the 7” advertised on the report, and it was only lightly skied, probably due to the visibility being far less than optimal on the open runs. It was so good I did a five runs in a row before finally moving on!
Trees skied OK, but really any place you could find that was consistent skied great. And with that in mind, I was able to ski North St. Pats relatively early in my ski day, and was rewarded with an untracked line down the right side of the main pitch. Deep and steep bottomless turns were some of the best of the day, though there are only so many of them that can fit in the short pitch! I also found great deep snow on the Third Pitch out of Gate 3, though I would caution against venturing in that area without knowledge or guidance, especially since it involves some cliff bands and a 15 minute slog back to the ski area.
This storm will be quickly followed by a complex storm presently just off the coast of northern California that will turn our winds to the southwest by tonight. Several pieces of energy are forecast to be ejected over us in this relatively warm southwest flow even, as main low over California moves southward. Showers on Tuesday will likely remain as rain or a mix at lower elevations in the warming temperatures, though snow should occur above Thunderhead, and I would expect 1-4” to be reported by Wednesday morning.
This pattern persists for Wednesday, though showers will increase and snow levels fall a bit as the main storm moves eastward long the Utah - Arizona border. We will get some cooling on the back side of the storm by late Wednesday as it finally moves east of us, and I would expect around 3-6” by Thursday morning. Snows will likely continue Thursday morning before tapering off by the afternoon.
A transient ridge moves over Great Basin late Thursday / early Friday before another storm enters the west coast on Thursday. There is a fair bit of model uncertainty as to whether this system splits and to what degree, but it appears that this storm helps carve out a persistent trough over the Great Basin. This trough then keeps us in moist and cool northwest flow for a long-lasting snow event, possibly lasting through the weekend and into the next workweek.
Saturday, March 29, 2014
After a beautiful sunny and warm day today, the weather changes Sunday in advance of the next storm. Southwest winds will increase late Sunday morning and afternoon before a moderately strong cold front moves across the area around sunset. We will likely have localized areas of moderate to heavy snow as the front moves through, with light to moderate showers continuing through Sunday night before decreasing and eventually ending by late Monday.
The storms this past Thursday and Friday produced snow at the low end of my forecast, though most of the other resorts in Colorado were at the high end. At this point, I suspect that the lower elevation of the ski area compared to the others may be handicapping our snow totals, and I will have to be more conservative with forecasts as temperatures continue to warm this spring. I would expect 2-5” from this storm by report time Monday morning, with another 1-3” during the day.
A large and organized low in the Gulf of Alaska will move west this weekend and begin to influence our weather soon after the Sunday system departs late Monday. Pieces of energy ejecting from the large system will produce showers for Tuesday and Tuesday night, but the forecast amounts are uncertain as there is disagreement on whether the system splits upon entering the west coast.
The European model keeps the system more coherent and would lead to greater forecast amounts, while the American model currently splits the system, taking most of the energy west and then south of us Wednesday. Unsettled weather will last through much of the work week nonetheless, as it appears the southern system will be close enough to impact our weather as it eventually moves east of us.
Tuesday, March 25, 2014
A beautiful day today before 2 distinct waves influence our weather from Wednesday through Friday. An area of low pressure in the Gulf of Alaska is forecast to eject a wave that will first bring high cloudiness and then precipitation into our area on Wednesday. Temperatures will be warm with this first wave, and we may have rain in the valley and snow higher up on the hill later Wednesday before the valley rain turns to snow in the evening. Additionally, the atmosphere may be unstable enough to support thunder with these passing waves, especially Wednesday afternoon.
I would expect up to several inches of heavy snow on the hill by sunset, though the storm will intensify around then, keeping snows going through the night. The relatively warm storm will limit accumulations to 4-8” for the Thursday report before a break between the two storms appears Thursday morning.
This break will be short-lived as the second colder wave affects our area by Thursday afternoon. Moderate to heavy snows are expected by sunset and will continue past midnight. Though model forecasts diminish snows during the Friday morning hours, we may have some Steamboat Magic occur then, boosting snows after the 5-10” Friday morning report. A weak trailing wave passes over the area later Friday keeping lighter snows going through the day for an additional 2-4” before a transient ridge builds bringing warmer and drier weather moves over the area Saturday .
The nice weather Saturday gives way to another quick-moving wave for Sunday. Precipitation should be heaviest in the morning before decreasing in intensity during the afternoon and may last until midnight, with rain or a rain / snow mix in the valleys.
Another transient ridge brings nice weather for Monday of next week before another major storm begins affecting our area around Tuesday afternoon.