Drying weekend follows showery week
Monday, July 18, 2016
A large storm currently off the Pacific Northwest coast has forced a ridge to build over the western US, allowing south-southwesterly flow to carry monsoonal moisture from Mexico northwards over Colorado. This moist flow is a day or two faster than my previous forecast, keeping temperatures closer to normal today as clouds periodically inhibit the sunshine.
Very short range models indicate showers redeveloping overnight as old storm boundaries interact and force storms in the moist and unstable airmass.
Additional ill-defined waves from the south will continue to travel over Colorado for the work week, keeping a mix of sun, clouds and showers around with near normal temperatures.
Though models have pieces of energy ejecting from the Pacific Northwest later in the work week, the western ridge will deflect them to our north with minimal impact on the monsoon. However, the storm finally makes landfall late in the work week, and looks to drag a cool front across the Steamboat Springs region late Friday or early Saturday.
Winds will veer from the southerly direction to the westerly or northwesterly direction, effectively ending the influx of moisture from the south as the western ridge flattens. Remaining moisture will continue the threat of afternoon storms for the weekend under much drier conditions and warming temperatures.
Monsoonal moisture follows warm and likely dry weekend
Thursday, July 14, 2016
A Pacific Northwest storm near the Canadian border will move inland overnight and drag a shallow cool front across our region after midnight, continuing the string of cool nights for the Steamboat Springs area. Additionally, cool air moving southward from western Canada will moderate a building western ridge this weekend, replacing the near-normal temperatures of this past week with warming temperatures.
There may be some clouds Friday through Sunday as some mid and upper level moisture from Hurricane Darby in the eastern Pacific moves over the area in west to southwest flow, and this will also warm the overnight temperatures.
Cool air from Siberia currently crossing the North Pole will spin up another Pacific Northwest storm late in the weekend, and that will allow a stronger ridge to build over the western US by early next week as the storm digs further to the south along the West Coast than the previous Pacific Northwest storms.
The end result will be temperature soaring to well above normal early in the week before monsoonal moisture from Mexico brings clouds and showers and the attendant cooler temperatures to the region around midweek.
Longer range models indicate the monsoonal pattern may hang around after next week as a trough of low pressure lingers off the West Coast, keeping the moist south-southwesterly flow going over our area.
Cool nights and pleasant days ahead
Monday, July 11, 2016
The cold front that passed through the Steamboat Springs area last night brought freezing temperatures to the top of Mt. Werner this morning and kept daytime temperatures pleasantly below normal. Though the strongest westerly winds will decrease by midweek, continued westerly flow with embedded waves will keep the cool nights and pleasant daytime temperatures with breezy afternoon winds going through most of the rest of the work week.
A Pacific Northwest storm crossing the coast near the Canadian border on Friday will cause the flow to back to the southwest and bring still dry weather but warmer temperatures to our area by the end of the work week and through the weekend.
More cold air from Siberia will cross the North Pole and spin up another unseasonably strong storm off the Pacific Northwest coast by early next week. Not only will this increase temperatures to well above normal again as a western ridge builds ahead of the storm, but will also allow some monsoonal moisture to our southwest to be drawn over our area.
Current models have this as the beginnings of another monsoonal surge that may introduce considerable moisture for Colorado starting around next midweek.
Windy and cool follows hot weekend
Friday, July 8, 2016
After a seasonably hot weekend with some afternoon clouds and possibly a stray shower later Sunday, an unseasonably cold storm currently off the Pacific northwest coast will move across the northern Great Basin on Sunday. Breezy to windy southwest winds will occur by Sunday afternoon before the dry cold front moves through the area Sunday night or Monday morning as the main storm passes north of our area.
Monday will be noticeably cooler with still breezy westerly winds as the first cold front passes through, followed by additional cool waves which will keep the cool mornings with pleasant daytime temperatures and dry weather going for most of the work week.
A flat ridge is forecast to build across the western US for still dry but warming temperatures around next weekend courtesy of a mass of cold air from Siberia that is forecast drop through Alaska and spin up another strong Pacific Northwest storm by late next weekend.
Dry weather returns with cool fronts Thursday and early next week
Monday, July 4, 2016
Though we will still be susceptible to afternoon and early evening storms for Independence Day and Tuesday, the atmosphere will continue to dry and warm over the next few days, though at a slightly slower rate than in last Friday’s forecast.
After a mostly dry Wednesday, a wave traveling along the Canadian border midweek will bring the possibility of showers, likely staying to our north for Wednesday night. But cool air will wash over the area on Thursday along with breezy to windy west winds in a still dry atmosphere.
Temperatures should soar to above normal with diminishing winds by later Friday and heading into the weekend as a transient ridge builds behind the departing storm to our north and ahead of another strong Pacific Northwest storm making landfall early next weekend.
By late Sunday or early next week, cooler temperatures, again with breezy to windy westerly winds with still dry weather are expected as that Pacific Northwest storm moves across the northern Great Basin.
