Moderate storms bookend the following week
Friday, February 12, 2016
After a sunny Friday and Saturday, a wave in northwest flow brings some moisture and cool air over the Steamboat Springs area Sunday, beginning snows that will last through Monday night. Amounts are uncertain as models are wavering on the strength of this wave and its southern extent, but right now it looks like 3-6” may be reported on the Monday morning ski report, with an additional 1-4” during the rest of Monday.
There may be lingering clouds and possible snow showers early Tuesday behind the wave, but the Great Basin ridge builds over us after that, bringing warm, dry air and sunny skies back over the area by later Tuesday into Wednesday.
A stronger storm over the Pacific is forecast to cross the California coast midweek and spread clouds over our area by Wednesday night and bring snows to the area as soon as early Thursday. There is disagreement among the models as to the strength of this storm, but early forecast amounts by Friday morning are in the 6-12” range.
Chances for snow Sunday-Monday and at the end of the work week
Thursday, February 11, 2016
A shallow wave to our north and east will bring cloudier conditions for parts of today and tomorrow before sunny skies return for Saturday. Our next chance for snow is currently forecast to be from Sunday afternoon into Monday morning when a quick-moving wave in northwest flow brings some moisture and cool air over the Steamboat Springs area. Amounts are uncertain as models are wavering on the strength of this wave and its southern extent, but right now it looks like 4-8” may be reported on the Monday morning ski report.
There may be lingering clouds and possible snow showers on Tuesday behind the wave, but the Great Basin ridge builds over us after that, bringing warm dry air and sunny skies back over the area by midweek.
A moderate storm over the Pacific is forecast to cross the California coast midweek and spread clouds over our area by Wednesday night and possibly bringing snow showers to the area as soon as early Thursday. There is disagreement among the models as to the strength of this storm, with current forecasts bringing a possibly significant event across the area by the end of the work week.
Another storm tonight before mostly dry weather for the next week
Thursday, February 4, 2016
Another round of snows for the Steamboat Ski Area has begun with cloudy skies and light snow on the upper mountain as a wave in northwest flow moves over the area. Snows should increase through overnight before tapering off in the morning Friday, after leaving 3-6” for the morning report and possibly an additional inch or two during the morning after the report.
Brief ridging will be over the area Saturday before another wave in northwest flow crosses mostly north and east of us, bringing another surge of seasonably cold air and light snow showers with minimal accumulations for late Saturday night into Sunday morning.
Cloudy but cool and dry conditions are forecast for Monday before the West Coast ridge builds and moves eastward over the Rocky Mountain spine by Tuesday, bringing plenty of sun and warming mountain temperatures for the rest of the work week. However, temperature inversions will likely reform in the valleys continuing the cold overnight lows there.
Pacific energy from the west and cold Canadian air from the north are forecast to weaken the ridge sometime around next weekend or early the following week, and this may allow storms to once again affect our area.
Wet weather turning much colder for the next week
Thursday, January 28, 2016
The current sunny conditions will end by tomorrow as a quick moving wave skirts our northern border Friday, creating some light snow at the Steamboat ski area with perhaps several inches of accumulating snow during Friday.
Following closely is a wet and relatively warm Pacific jet stream that will begin precipitation Friday night. Because temperatures are forecast to warm through noon or afternoon Saturday, there may be rain in the valleys before the cool air associated with this storm sags south over northern Colorado by later Saturday. There is disagreement in the models about how much warming occurs during the day Saturday, and this will affect how much snow we see during the day, with 2-5” of relatively dense snow likely.
Cooler air Saturday night will lead to moderate and sometimes heavy snow overnight, leaving 6-12” of snow for the Sunday morning ski report.
Snow looks to taper off during the day Sunday as brief and shallow ridging moves over the area ahead of a large, complex and potentially dangerous storm crossing the West Coast on Sunday. This storm will intensify as it crosses the Great Basin as very cold air from the Canadian Plains mixes with the relatively warm and wet overrunning Pacific jet stream.
The dynamic nature of this storm makes forecasting difficult, but current models bring light snow over our area by early Monday morning before turning moderate to heavy by later Monday. As the storm moves somewhere along the southern Colorado border on Monday, moderate to heavy snows may continue for our area as a TROWAL is indicated to form and persist overnight. Additionally, very cold air will move southward along the west side of the storm as it moves east of our area, possibly creating a huge powder day for Tuesday.
Additional waves of energy and cold air move over the area in northwest flow later Tuesday and Wednesday, keeping snows going through possibly Thursday morning.
Snows stop for a few days when this storm cycle ends early Thursday
Wednesday, January 20, 2016
We currently have heavy snow in Steamboat Springs as the last storm of this storm cycle passes over the area today and tonight. Intermittent moderate to heavy snows are expected today and tonight with breaks between the showers. Though the amount of water in the snow is forecast to diminish overnight, temperatures will drop and decrease the density of the snowfall, leaving 5-10” on the hill by tomorrow morning, with less in the valleys.
Snow will hold on longest tomorrow on Mount Werner before the sun makes an appearance. Temperatures will be quite cold overnight Thursday and into Friday morning under clear skies as temperature inversions reform in the wake of all the new snow and colder airmass.
A transient ridge moves over the area by Friday, noticeably warming temperatures at the higher elevations while the valleys stay cool after a cold morning start. Temperatures should stay warm on the hill for Saturday as the valleys warm further.
Another complex Pacific storm is forecast to cross the West Coast early in the weekend and will affect our weather by Saturday night or Sunday morning, creating moderate to sometimes heavy snows for Sunday. This storm is forecast to drag down some more cold air from the Canadian Plains, keeping lighter intensity but lower density snow around for Monday.
Tuesday is currently looking to be precipitation-free before a weak grazing wave in northwest flow may produce some snow for Wednesday. Models indicate a break before a major storm may impact the last weekend of January.
