Slight cooling for Sunday, Monday followed by hot temperatures and monsoonal flow
Friday, June 17, 2016
After another couple of hot and dry days for Friday and Saturday, a wave passing to our north on Sunday will moderate temperatures a bit as a couple of weak cool fronts pass through the area on Sunday and Monday. There may also be a slight chance of afternoon storms each day as the cool fronts destabilize the atmosphere for the first time in a week.
The storm to our north will amplify into a deep eastern trough through the week as still cold air from Canada is drawn southward into the eastern third of the country. Additionally, another Pacific storm will approach the West Coast early in the week, and a strong western ridge will rebuild over the Great Basin early in the week before being nudged eastward by the slowly advancing Pacific storm.
Hot temperatures will return by Tuesday afternoon, and as the ridge slowly moves eastward the southerly flow around the west side of the ridge will allow the southwest US monsoon to make its first appearance of this summer season.
Monsoonal flow refers to the seasonal reversal of the winds, and in our case this refers to the influx of moisture as southerly winds pick up moisture originally from the Gulf of Mexico that has moved westward across Mexico and moves it over our area.
Only a slight chance of afternoon storms are expected for Tuesday and Wednesday as temperatures soar to their warmest reading of the season under the building ridge. The monsoon becomes established enough by Thursday to bring a greater chance of clouds and afternoon storms that may last through the weekend.
Hot and dry follows an unsettled Monday and cool Tuesday
Sunday, June 12, 2016
After another round of afternoon of showers in the Steamboat Springs area today, the southern part of the Pacific storm that split off the West Coast yesterday will cross the southern California coast tonight and move northeastward across the Great Basin during the day Monday, eventually crossing Colorado soon after midnight on Monday.
Moisture and lift in the southwest flow ahead of the storm will bring a better chance of storms for Monday, possibly starting by as soon as noon and continuing into the overnight hours.
The storm is now forecast to move faster than on my Friday forecast, so any overnight precipitation should end by Tuesday morning, followed by drying and slight cooling in the west to northwest flow behind the departing storm.
The flow backs to the southwest by late Tuesday, bringing in very dry air from the desert southwest and starting a warming trend on Wednesday that will see dry conditions and increasingly hot temperatures continue into at least the beginning of the weekend.
Though another strong Pacific storm approaches the northwest coast around Tuesday of this work week, the strong June sun will amplify the central US ridge and shunt the storm to our north when it eventually moves inland early in the weekend. However, we may see some relief from the unseasonably hot temperatures by Sunday as models drag some cool air from this passing storm over our area.
Unsettled weather returns from Sunday through Tuesday
Friday, June 10, 2016
A strong Pacific storm has split off the West Coast, and the southern part of the split as well as a separate storm currently near northern Baja will bring increased chances of unsettled weather for the Steamboat Springs area as soon as Saturday afternoon.
Southerly flow ahead of the southern part of the split picks up the Baja storm and moves it over the Great Basin tomorrow. Though the storm will travel west of us, the increased moisture and upward motion will increase the chance of afternoon storms for Saturday.
By Sunday, additional energy from the north reinforces the southern part of the split and forces it eastward across the southern Great Basin, eventually moving over our area early on Tuesday.
There will still be a chance of afternoon storms on Sunday as the southern storm approaches the area, though they should be less numerous than on Saturday.
By Monday, the proximity of the storm will once again increase the chance of late-day storms. As the storm moves over us overnight or early Tuesday, rain may continue into the overnight hours and extend into the morning. Showers should wane during the afternoon as cool, dry air overspreads our area on the backside of the departing storm.
By Wednesday, our flow backs from the northwest to the southwest ahead of yet another large Pacific storm approaching the northern West Coast. This will bring much drier air for the rest of the work week and extending into next weekend, along with increasing temperatures.
Spring weather turns unsettled for Closing Weekend and beyond
Wednesday, April 6, 2016
A possibly prolonged period of relatively warm and unsettled weather starts Closing Weekend and extends through the following week after a string of fine spring days to close out the current work week.
A piece of the just-passed Tuesday storm, left behind and loitering west of Baja, is forecast to be pushed just south of our area Friday night by another Pacific storm upstream. The storm will be warm due its vacation west of Baja, bringing a chance of rain showers to the valley and snow showers to the higher elevations Friday night with little or no accumulations.
Meanwhile, the cold Pacific storm upstream is forecast to split around a rapidly building Gulf of Alaska ridge, and models are struggling with how much energy is partitioned in the northern and southern streams of the split, leading to forecast uncertainty.
Regardless, more low elevations rain showers and higher elevations snow showers are expected during the day Saturday as the southern stream crosses the southern California coast. Current forecasts have the bulk of the southern stream energy staying just south of our area on Sunday, continuing the warm and showery weather for Closing Day. There will likely be a weak cool front associated with the northern stream moving across our area later in the day and into the evening Sunday, but by then most of the moisture and energy associated with the southern stream has past, minimizing it’s impact over Steamboat Springs, but possibly bringing significant weather to the Front Range by Monday.
There is a lot of energy in the Pacific, and an active period is forecast for the following week, with models disagreeing on another possibly major storm around Wednesday. It’s a shame that Steamboat is planning to close Sunday as the mountain bases will likely continue to build through April.
Storms for Tuesday and Closing Day followed by very active week
Sunday, April 3, 2016
A very complicated jet stream pattern over the next two weeks will affect our weather in the Steamboat Springs area, with Pacific waves from the northwest and then southwest traveling over our area and possibly mixing with cold air from the Canadian Plains.
After a couple of spring days today and tomorrow, with even some afternoon and evening showers possible later Monday, winter returns on Tuesday as a quick-moving storm from the Pacific Northwest brings snow and breezy to windy northwest winds to the area. Models are struggling with the southern extent of the system, but currently it looks like 4-8” of snow will fall during the day and into the evening Tuesday, to be reported Wednesday morning.
Skies will clear and spring will return for midweek into the beginning of the weekend before a possibly prolonged period of wet weather starts around Closing Day and extends through the following week.
A piece of the Tuesday storm, left behind and loitering west of Baja during the week, is forecast by some models to be pushed over our area mid-weekend by another strong and cold Pacific storm upstream. The storm will initially be warm due its vacation west of Baja, bringing rain to the valley and snow to the higher elevations around Saturday afternoon of Closing Weekend.
The cold Pacific storm upstream is forecast to split around a rapidly building Gulf of Alaska ridge, and models are struggling with how much energy is partitioned in the northern and southern streams of the split. Furthermore, cold air from the Canadian Plains is forecast to push westward toward the northern Rockies and mix with the northern stream of the split, while the southern stream is forecast to undercut the Gulf of Alaska ridge and approach our area early the following work week.
There is a lot of energy in the Pacific, and at least the American GFS is forecasting an active and wet period for the following week. It’s a shame that Steamboat is currently planning to close as the mountain bases will likely continue to build through April. Would the possibility of a 400” season induce them to stay open another week? Take it upon yourself to convince them!
