Standard summertime weather ahead
Sunday, July 22, 2018
The weak cool front promised in the last forecast does not look to arrive till this evening, so the Steamboat Springs area will see another warm day this Sunday with a chance of afternoon and evening thunderstorms. Temperatures will cool back toward average behind the front on Monday with a good chance of afternoon and evening storms.
For the remainder of the week, our area will be under the influence of generally northwesterly flow as a series of Pacific storms travel well north of our area and drop southward into the Ohio River Valley. This will have the effect of forcing the dominant southwestern ridge of high pressure back westward, cutting off the fetch of monsoonal moisture into Colorado from the south, but bringing periodic surges of moisture and energy to at least northern Colorado.
Right now, Tuesday looks to be the driest day of the week before storm chances reappear for the afternoon and evenings through the rest of the work week and heading into the weekend.
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Cooler weather for next week arrives this Sunday
Thursday, July 19, 2018
The ridge of high pressure over the Desert Southwest that brought hot and dry weather to the Steamboat Springs area this past week will be pushed eastward this weekend by a Pacific storm that is forecast to travel through southern Canada. We will see a series of weak cool fronts associated with the storm well to our north though the week and good chances for wetting rains from later Saturday through Monday as southerly flow on the west side of the high pressure carries moisture and energy northward over Colorado.
Ahead of that, expect more of the same hot, dry, dusty and gusty weather for the rest of today and Friday. Though Saturday will start dry and warm, there will be an increasing chance of showers by the afternoon or evening as moisture begins arriving over northern Colorado.
Sunday should be noticeably cooler with temperatures closer to average as a weak cool front from the north conspires with increasing moisture to bring some clouds and a good possibility of storms. some with locally heavy rainfall, most likely in the afternoon and evening.
Monday looks like a repeat of Sunday as another weak cool front rotates through northern Colorado. At this time, the ridge of high pressure that was briefly to our east is pushed back westward again by storms dropping southward along the East Coast, though the northern extent of the ridge will be limited by the Canadian storm still well to our north. The end result should be decreased chances for showers and continued cooler temperatures in light northwest flow for Tuesday and Wednesday.
Another Pacific storm approaches our area in still northwest flow around Thursday or Friday and may bring an increasing chance of showers to close out the work week.
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Seasonable summertime weather this week
Sunday, July 15, 2018
A weak cool front that passed through the Steamboat Springs area earlier this Sunday brought some brief and very light showers around noon, along with a welcome cool down in temperatures. After some clearing behind the front, we may see another chance of showers later today in the light westerly flow.
The incoming Pacific wave discussed in the last forecast verified on the slower side, likely keeping Monday dry with seasonable temperatures but bringing a chance of showers for Tuesday.
Behind the quick-moving Pacific storm, a ridge of high pressure builds again over the Desert Southwest during the next week, bringing dry weather and hot temperatures back to our area starting on Wednesday.
Another Pacific storm traveling well to our north may provide for a small chance of showers later Thursday as it temporarily flattens the western ridge of high pressure, and we may see some cooler temperatures closer to average on Friday as the grazing storm moves eastward.
The weekend currently looks to be on the dry and warm side as our weather stays firmly under control of the Desert Southwest ridge of high pressure.
There is a hint of the reestablishment of moist monsoonal flow from the south beyond next weekend as the ridge crawls eastward, though at this point the best activity looks to say further to our south.
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Drying trend heading into the weekend
Thursday, July 12, 2018
Some drier air filtering into the Steamboat Springs area this afternoon behind a weak cool front will reduce the chances of afternoon storms through this weekend before they increase again early next week.
But first, Steamboat Springs experienced some fairly dramatic weather the last two days as infrequent westward moving thunderstorms brought brief heavy rain, small hail, and some impressive gust fronts that dropped the temperature by 25 degrees F in about an hour. I have reproduced the new tool on the SnowAalrm home page below that shows the precipitous temperature drops in blue associated with each storm. These drops in temperature on the 10th, highlighted by the blue dot, and 11th are quite apparent when compared to the hot afternoon of the 9th.
Back to the forecast, a weak cool front currently traveling through the Steamboat Springs area this Thursday will continue the chance of showers this afternoon and evening, though the threat of rain is lower than the last few days as drier air filters in behind the front. We will still see at least some chance of our normal summertime afternoon and early evening thunderstorms for the weekend before chances increase again early in the work week courtesy of another Pacific wave of energy that will travel near or over our area.
There is some uncertainty with respect to the speed of the incoming Pacific storm and its southern extent, but right now there is an increased chance of showers during Monday and Monday night as the small storm moves through. A slower movement would push the higher chances storm chances to Tuesday.
A building ridge of high pressure to our west will likely bring a return to hot and dry conditions for the rest of the work week as it moves eastward over the Rocky Mountains, with a chance of some moisture returning around the following weekend as the ridge moves east of our area.
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Best chance of wetting rains on Wednesday and Thursday
Sunday, July 8, 2018
The dominant ridge of high pressure over most of the country will keep the hot temperatures around in Steamboat Springs through Monday and part of Tuesday before a good chance of wetting rains and cooler temperatures arrives midweek. Then, along with the return of hot temperatures heading into next weekend, the chances for showers will again decrease.
But first, similar to yesterday, this Sunday will have a chance of afternoon and evening showers as some moisture remains trapped under the western portion of the ridge. Precipitation chances diminish on Monday and possibly Tuesday as the ridge and its associated trapped moisture is pushed eastward by a Pacific storm forecast to cross the Pacific Northwest coast Monday night.
Though the storm is forecast to travel well to our north along the Canadian border, a weak cool front passing through northern Colorado may allow for the possibility of some showers later Tuesday and overnight.
By Wednesday, the weak cool front looks to conspire with a wave of energy moving westward from the southern Mississippi Valley along the southern periphery of the ridge, and bring cooler temperatures closer to average for Wednesday and Thursday along with a good chance of wetting rains.
The cooler temperatures for midweek will warm starting Friday and the weekend as drier air is advertised by some weather forecast models to follow behind the departing cool front. Unfortunately, this also looks to minimize any chances for further precipitation, though subtle changes in the forecast ridge position may allow for some chances during the weekend.
For those not visiting the SnowAlarm site regularly, I’d like to also draw your attention to some added functionality on the home page which shows the past three days of temperature, relative humidity and wind from the Bob Adams airport here in Steamboat Springs, as well as some other surrounding stations. Refer to my last blog post for more details and a way to view your favorite locations.
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