Temperatures to warm through the rest of this year ahead of precipitation chances for the New Year
Sunday, December 28, 2025
A brisk winter day with mostly sunny afternoon skies is over Steamboat Springs this Sunday, with temperatures in the low twenties in town and only two degrees at the top of the Steamboat Ski Resort at mid-afternoon. After a foot of fresh powder fell at mid-mountain and fifteen inches up top, warming temperatures and mostly sunny skies will close out 2025, with precipitation chances returning for the start of the New Year.
A ridge of high pressure is building over the West behind the departing storm and ahead of an elongating trough of low pressure extending southwestward from Alaska to the south of the Aleutian Islands. Clear skies tonight, light winds, and fresh snow will create ideal conditions for subzero temperatures in town, below our average of four degrees.
Dry air under the ridge will make for a beautiful three days to close out 2025, with temperatures warming into the upper-twenties on Monday. Weather forecast models often overestimate the amount of warming after snowy intrusions of arctic air, as the low sun angle and highly reflective snow surface minimize daytime heating. But if the models are to be believed, we could see upper thirties on Tuesday and back to the low forties by Wednesday, well above our average of twenty-eight degrees, with continued mostly sunny daytime skies.
Meanwhile, waves of cold air moving southwestward from Alaska and eastward from Siberia will shift the Aleutian trough eastward into the Gulf of Alaska, forcing further elongation to the south. Additionally, the southern part of the current storm, left behind to our southwest, will merge with a wave moving southwestward over Nevada and form an eddy off the coast of southern California by Monday, ingesting subtropical moisture as it vacations there for a few days.
Eventually, the moist and warm eddy will be forced eastward by the original Aleutian trough now over the eastern Pacific, though how the trough evolves and how it interacts with the eddy are uncertain. Most weather forecast models force the weakening eddy across the Desert Southwest around midweek, bringing increasing clouds on New Year’s Day and precipitation chances by the evening.
Snow levels will rise with the warm temperatures, eventually reaching about 7,500′ by Thursday afternoon, so any precipitation will probably be liquid in town and modest on the hill. What happens behind that will depend upon the evolution of the eastern Pacific trough, with some models bringing a portion of that trough over our area later in the weekend. If that occurs, pleasant weather is expected for most of the first weekend of 2026, followed by unsettled weather to start the next workweek.
Enjoy the results of the game-changing weekend storm at the Steamboat Ski Resort this week, and I’ll have more details on expected snowfall amounts by Friday and the weekend outlook in my next regularly scheduled weather narrative on Thursday afternoon.
Winter to reappear this weekend after high temperature records shattered
Thursday, December 25, 2025
The sun is peeking out this Christmas Day at noon in Steamboat Springs after a morning of rain showers in town with temperatures in the low forties, and snow showers at the top of the Steamboat Ski Resort with temperatures near freezing. After record-high temperatures were set in town this past week, winter reappears for the weekend, with significant snowfall occurring on the hill and some in town. Expect much colder temperatures, reaching below zero by Monday morning at all elevations.
Before we get to snowfall guesses, high temperatures between Sunday and Wednesday afternoons in town shattered two records and tied two others since 1893. Sunday afternoon saw a high of 46 F, tied for the second warmest with 2020, 1980, and 1936, short of the 55 F record set in 1921.
Monday saw an incredible high temperature of 59 F, shattering the previous record of 47 F by twelve degrees, set in 1971.
Tuesday’s high temperature of 52 F was the second warmest for the date, shy of the 58 F record set in 1955.
The official observations for the Steamboat Springs weather station behind the high school have not been published yet for Wednesday, but the 50 F record set in 2016 was certainly broken.
Now that those obscene Christmas-time temperatures are behind us, we can look forward to winter’s return this weekend. The ridge of high pressure over the Rocky Mountains, which caused the record warmth this past week, has been forced eastward by energy ejected from a deep trough of low pressure just off the West Coast, itself downstream of a persistent ridge of high pressure near the Dateline.
The ejected energy carried copious subtropical moisture, leaving over two feet of snow in the high Sierras and bringing the showers this morning. A wave of cold air from Siberia has topped the Dateline ridge, with some dropping into the West Coast trough and some moving eastward, ingesting additional cold air from western Canada.
While some snowfall has been predicted by the weather forecast models all week, the amount of snow and cold air has been uncertain, as it depends upon the partitioning of the Siberian energy. The models have settled on an encouraging solution, having enough energy moving into the trough to keep it moving, and having enough energy moving across the Pacific Northwest to ingest additional cold air.
The result is that both the West Coast trough and the Pacific Northwest wave will move into the Great Basin on Saturday, creating an overrunning event where warm and moist air in southwest flow moves over the top of cold air.
The initial cold front should move through our area Saturday morning, and depending on its arrival, could leave 1-4” of snow for the mid-mountain report. Snowfall should continue as cold air continues to filter into the region, leaving another 4-8” at mid-mountain by sunset. Temperatures will be falling most of the day, reaching around freezing in town by sunset and upper teens at the top of the resort.
Cold air will continue to move into our area through Sunday morning, under favorable moist and unstable northwest flow, keeping snow showers going until noon. Another 2-5” of snow overnight Saturday could yield a 6-13” Sunday morning mid-mountain report, with an additional 1-4” possible by around noon as the storm ends.
High temperatures will fall into the low twenties in town, finally below our average of 28 F, and the single digits at the top of the resort on Sunday. If skies clear Sunday night, we could see subzero temperatures at all elevations by Monday morning, below our average of 4 F in town.
A ridge of high pressure is then forecast to build over the West next week, providing a nice end to 2025, but more precipitation is forecast for around the start of the New Year. Enjoy our late-arriving Christmas present this weekend, and I’ll have more details on the end-of-week storm in my next regularly scheduled weather narrative on a cold Sunday afternoon.
Temperatures to warm ahead of Christmas moisture
Sunday, December 21, 2025
A mix of clouds and sun is over Steamboat Springs this Sunday at noon, with temperatures near forty degrees in town and freezing near the top of the Steamboat Ski Resort. After three and a half inches of snowfall on the hill Saturday and another half inch overnight, precipitation chances disappear until Christmas as temperatures warm under mostly sunny skies, not a good start to astronomical winter, which began at 8:03 am.
Our weather until Christmas will be dominated by a ridge of high pressure building over the central U.S., downstream of a developing trough of low pressure extending southward from the Gulf of Alaska. After a possible shower tonight, winds will turn to be from the southwest ahead of the deepening trough, bringing warm and dry air overhead with breezy afternoon winds.
We should see mostly sunny skies through Tuesday, with high temperatures in town in the forties, well above our twenty-nine-degree average, and low temperatures in the twenties, also well above our average of five degrees.
Cold air moving eastward from Siberia will round a persistent ridge of high pressure near the Dateline, and strengthen the trough while moving at least a portion of it eastward. Weather forecast models have struggled not only with this eastward motion and whether an eddy eventually forms on its southern end, but also with how much cold air moves into the trough and how much continues eastward.
Current forecasts have a leading piece of energy ejecting out of the storm, crossing the West Coast Tuesday night, and bringing increasing clouds to our area on Wednesday. Showers may wait until Christmas Day, which is good, as the warm origin of the moisture means snow levels peak near 10,000′ on Wednesday night.
While showers are possible on Christmas Day, frozen precipitation will only reach the mid-mountain elevation, with temperatures not cooling enough to bring snowflakes to town until Friday. Precipitation amounts currently look to be quite modest, but there is still time for the forecast to change. Enjoy the nice prelude to the Christmas holiday, and I’ll have more details on what to expect for the coming weekend in my next regularly scheduled weather narrative on Thursday afternoon.
Flurries tonight and tomorrow with better snow chances for Saturday
Thursday, December 18, 2025
Temperatures are at a seasonable thirty degrees in town and ten degrees up top with mostly sunny skies early this Thursday afternoon in Steamboat Springs. After a disappointing storm last night that produced no snow accumulations but plenty of wind, some moisture accompanying a strong jet stream will bring high-elevation flurries tonight and later Friday on a warmer day with morning sun. Winds will again increase starting Friday afternoon, accompanied by a stronger wave with still-spotty moisture which will bring snowfall chances from Friday night through Saturday, possibly lingering into Sunday.
A broad jet stream is moving between a ridge of high pressure over the Dateline and cold air in Canada. A trough of low pressure extending southwestward from the Gulf of Alaska towards Hawaii has carried an atmospheric river, also called the Pineapple Express due to its Hawaiian origins, northeastward into the Pacific Northwest. While we did get wind last night due to the proximity of the jet stream, including a gust of 78 mph near the top of the Steamboat Ski Area at 7 pm, measured at ten meters above Storm Peak Lab, and even 97 mph at 9 pm, measured at twelve meters above the lab, we did not get the moisture, disappointingly leaving only flurries.
After a seasonably cool day with temperatures in town several degrees above our average of twenty-nine degrees, there may be some flurries tonight as we are brushed a weak wave embedded in the jet stream.
While Friday will start sunny and be warmer than today, another wave of cool air carrying the remnants of the Pineapple Express will approach later Friday, increasing afternoon winds and the chance for evening showers. Unlike the last storm, which quickly brought a strong cold front through town, this front stalls around our area from Friday night through Saturday, leaving an opportunity for showers to develop along the stationary front.
Strong winds will continue Friday night, and thankfully decrease during the day Saturday, but the moisture forecast is uncertain, in no small part due to the poor weather forecast model performance for last night’s storm. We could see 1-4” of wind-blown snow by the Saturday morning mid-mountain report, with that again during the day, depending upon the proximity of the front and moisture quality.
Temperatures are expected to warm on Sunday, with the possibility of additional minor accumulations as another wave in the jet stream grazes the area, although weather forecast models are in disagreement over that scenario.
Monday may remain unsettled before cold air moving southward through Alaska amplifies the Gulf of Alaska trough, building a ridge of high pressure over the Intermountain region and bringing warming temperatures and mostly sunny skies by Tuesday. A piece of that trough may break away and bring unsettled weather back to the region around Christmas Day, though there are a lot of moving pieces associated with that forecast.
So once again, hope for more snow than forecast, and I’ll have more details on what we can expect during the days leading up to Christmas in my next regularly scheduled weather narrative on Sunday afternoon.
Precipitation chances to increase later Wednesday
Sunday, December 14, 2025
Another beautiful day is over Steamboat Springs with mostly sunny skies and upper-mountain temperatures already in the upper thirties, and temperatures in town around freezing, on their way towards fifty degrees. Temperatures are expected to cool several degrees through midweek, with some clouds on Tuesday, followed by light precipitation starting later on Wednesday and colder temperatures on Thursday. More precipitation is possible for the weekend.
A ridge of high pressure over the West is sandwiched between persistent troughs of low pressure over the East and the Gulf of Alaska, and a stout ridge of high pressure over the Dateline. The Dateline ridge is splitting the cold air around the North Pole in half, leaving cold air centers in Canada and Siberia. Most of the cold air from Siberia, carried eastward by the jet stream, has been directed over the Dateline ridge and into the Gulf of Alaska trough, even as some has traveled under the ridge and toward the southern end of that trough.
The result is a complicated weather pattern prone to forecast uncertainty, as it is unclear not only how much cold air travels underneath or over the top of the Dateline ridge, but also how much moves into the Gulf of Alaska trough or moves eastward. Additional uncertainty is related to how much subtropical and possibly tropical moisture may be drawn into the waves of cold air.
Weather forecast models have settled on a wave of cool air with modest moisture moving over our area later Wednesday, pushing the ridge of high pressure over the West eastward. Dry air under the ridge will stick around on Monday, with temperatures cooling a few degrees into the upper forties, still over fifteen degrees above our average of thirty degrees.
Some clouds on Tuesday will drop the high temperatures by another few degrees to the mid-forties, with a high-elevation shower possible. Clouds and winds will be increasing on Wednesday as the wave approaches, with precipitation breaking out later in the day and continuing overnight. Complicating the forecast is the eventual amount of cold air moving southward from western Canada, which may increase or decrease the 2-5” of snowfall expected at mid-mountain for the Thursday morning report. Unfortunately, the warm lower-elevation temperatures mean a rain-snow mix in town.
Thursday will see periods of sun and high temperatures falling to the thirties in town, still around five degrees above average, and the twenties up top. Friday will be warmer, with some morning sun, but there could be afternoon showers ahead of a stronger and more promising wave to start the weekend.
Enjoy the nice start to the workweek, hope for a colder and snowier Wednesday night, and I’ll have more details about the weekend storm in my next regularly scheduled weather narrative on Thursday afternoon.
