Cooler weather to arrive for the weekend with limited precipitation chances
Thursday, September 4, 2025
The sky has turned cloudy this Thursday mid-afternoon in Steamboat Springs with a temperature of eighty degrees. While cooler temperatures with highs in the mid-seventies are forecast for the weekend, precipitation chances now appear slim as the best monsoonal moisture stays to our south.
A wave of energy and cool air from the northern Canadian Plains is rotating around an impressive vortex of cold air sitting just north of the Great Lakes. Meanwhile, a ridge of high pressure extends along the West Coast and into Alaska as Hurricane Lorena lies just off the Baja coast. Moisture from the hurricane has moved northwards, but a shifting storm track will keep the best moisture over the Desert Southwest.
A cool front rotating through our area tonight may interact with the available moisture, perhaps bringing a brief shower or two overnight. High temperatures on Friday and the weekend are forecast to fall into the mid-seventies, around our average of seventy-seven degrees, and much warmer than the sixty-five degrees recorded last Friday.
While some of the hurricane moisture will be shunted southward for a brief time early Friday, a small circulation center, currently forming over Utah, may travel piecemeal over our area later Friday, bringing the chance of a shower or two.
Limited shower chances continue Saturday afternoon and evening as energy ejecting from the southern end of a trough of low pressure extending southward from the Gulf of Alaska crosses the Great Basin, dragging additional monsoonal moisture overhead.
The eventual fate of the former hurricane is uncertain, and some energy may be sheared toward our area by Sunday. This may interact with the energy still being ejected from the area of low pressure to our west, bringing more chances for showers at times on Sunday.
While the rain chances are nebulous, the smoke forecast is not. The hazy skies observed today are due to smoke from wildfires in California and the Pacific Northwest. Unfortunately, the NOAA Smoke model forecast indicates smoke will continue to rotate around the high pressure over the West, bringing hazy skies that will last through at least Saturday morning. The smoke model is run four times a day, so check it for the latest forecast.
A storm is forecast to develop and strengthen in the Gulf of Alaska this weekend, with pieces of the storm moving over the Pacific Northwest as early as Sunday. Wildfires may be helped or hurt by the incoming weather; while some precipitation is likely, there will also be increasing winds.
Enjoy the first weekend of meteorological fall, hope the shower chances are more robust than currently forecast, and check back for details on the possibility of increasing moisture near the end of next week from the landfalling Gulf of Alaska storm in my next regularly scheduled weather narrative on Sunday afternoon.
Beautiful weather has arrived for Labor Day and the workweek ahead
Sunday, August 31, 2025
Temperatures are in the delightful mid-seventies with mostly sunny skies this Sunday mid-afternoon in Steamboat Springs. After the recent cool and wet workweek boosted our August precipitation to above average, temperatures will warm toward eighty degrees for Labor Day and the rest of the workweek, with rain chances creeping back into the forecast around next weekend.
Including the brief shower Saturday afternoon, which has yet to be entered into the official observations at the Steamboat Springs weather station near the high school, it has rained every day this past week. Nine-tenths of an inch of rain fell, bringing our monthly total to 2.05”, not including the brief shower yesterday, which is above our average of 1.74”
But dry air is now overhead due to a building ridge of high pressure over the West, bringing mostly sunny skies and temperatures approaching eighty degrees for Labor Day and the rest of the workweek, just above our seventy-eight-degree average.
The dry air will allow nighttime temperatures to fall to the low forties, and likely the upper thirties in the favored low-lying areas of the Yampa River Basin, right around the thirty-nine-degree average. We may see smoke at times from the Garret wildfire in the central Sierras and the Klamath wildfires in northern California as it is directed over the top of the ridge of high pressure and toward our area. Stay abreast of the latest forty-eight-hour smoke forecast from the NOAA Smoke model forecast, which is run four times a day.
While last week it looked like we had a chance for the season’s first fall-like cold front around midweek, weather forecast models now have a stronger ridge of high pressure over the West, deflecting the chilly air, which will include the nation’s first below-freezing temperatures over the Upper Midwest, to our east.
The next chance for rain may occur next weekend, when moisture from a tropical disturbance moving near Baja may be directed toward our area by developing low pressure off the California coast.
Enjoy the gorgeous weather for the unofficial end of summer on Labor Day tomorrow and the workweek ahead, and I’ll have more details on precipitation chances for next weekend in my next regularly scheduled weather narrative on Thursday afternoon.
Gorgeous weather to arrive for most of the Labor Day Weekend
Thursday, August 28, 2025
Temperatures are in the comfortable low seventies with partly cloudy skies this Thursday mid-afternoon in Steamboat Springs. Including Sunday, it has rained every day this week, with more expected later this afternoon and Friday before we see warming and drying for the long Labor Day Weekend, with temperatures rising to near eighty degrees on a mostly sunny Monday.
A ridge of high pressure to our south is flanked by a deep area of low pressure extending southward from the Great Lakes and another off the West Coast extending southward from a storm in the Gulf of Alaska that is approaching the Pacific Northwest coast. Additionally, a tropical disturbance has migrated northward from off the coast of Baja, merging with the southern end of the eastward-moving low pressure off the West Coast to bring another round of likely showers to our area on Friday.
Including the rainfall from the cell that moved overhead last night, about six-tenths of an inch of rain has fallen around town this week, including Sunday. There should be additional rainfall this afternoon and on Friday, perhaps starting by noon, with uncertainty regarding the exact trajectory of the remnants of the tropical disturbance affecting where the best rain falls.
Showers may linger into Friday evening, before the ridge of high pressure to our south builds over most of the West ahead of the Pacific Northwest storm, bringing drier air overhead starting on Saturday. The low-seventy-degree high temperatures of today, below the average of seventy-nine degrees, are forecast to persist through Saturday, with only a small chance of afternoon and evening showers. Mostly sunny skies and mid-seventy-degree temperatures on Sunday, along with upper seventies on Labor Day, will provide the perfect backdrop for the traditional end-of-summer barbecues.
While control of our local wildfires has been helped immensely by this week of wet weather, with the Crosho fire 100% contained and the Lee fire 90% contained, the NOAA Smoke model forecast indicates smoke from the Emigrant fire in southern Oregon and the Klamath fire in northern California may travel around the top of the high pressure ridge and encroach on our area Friday afternoon. Only a forty-eight-hour forecast is provided by the smoke model, so check it during the weekend for possible smoke impacts to our area for the rest of the long weekend.
Let’s look forward to some more rain through Friday, enjoy what should be a glorious unofficial end to the summer season, and I’ll have details on what may be our first fall-like northwest cool front of the season around midweek in my next regularly scheduled weather narrative on Sunday afternoon.
Good rain chances to last through the workweek
Sunday, August 24, 2025
Temperatures are in the upper-seventies with cloudy skies this Sunday mid-afternoon in Steamboat Springs. You don’t have to be a meteorologist to know the weather pattern has shifted, with our best monsoonal surge of the summer arriving today and lasting through the workweek. While some rainfall is almost certain over the entire state, timing, rainfall rates, and duration are uncertain, as is often the case during the North American Monsoon.
Before discussing the weather forecast, the thunderstorm last Friday exhibited similar characteristics to those that occurred exactly a week ago, when a thunderstorm rapidly intensified as it moved over town, approaching this time from the northwest rather than the southwest.
The image in the lower-left of the mosaic animation is the infrared satellite, which measures cloud-top temperatures; the higher the cloud, the colder the temperature, the more colorful the image, and the stronger the thunderstorm. The location of Steamboat Springs is marked in white, and the rapid intensification of the storm cell is noted by the rapidly growing green blob that moves over town. The propagation of the storm through town is captured first by the sequence of images from the Thunderhead cam in the upper right as the rain approaches from the northwest, and then the Four Points cam in the upper left as it moves over the Steamboat Ski Resort.
While the red colors of the radar images in the lower right panel indicate a strong storm, it is apparent that the cell splits as it moves over town. The second animation shows a high-resolution radar view of the splitting storm. Not only does the initial thunderstorm split when it moves over town, but additional thunderstorms from the north merge with both parts of the split storm, illustrating the difficulty in making even a real-time forecast, or nowcast, of shower development.
But now we are in a new weather regime as the ridge of high pressure responsible for the record-breaking heat last week is forced eastward by low pressure approaching the West Coast. Clockwise flow around the high pressure has conspired with southerly winds ahead of the approaching low pressure to bring a surge of monsoonal moisture northward.
Good rain chances starting this afternoon and lasting through much of the workweek result, with high temperatures cooling into the upper-seventies on Monday and Tuesday, near our average of 79 F, and lower-seventies on Wednesday and Thursday. Overnight rainfall is possible, even likely at times, with the strength of daytime thunderstorms dependent upon morning cloud cover. Morning sun will cook the moist atmosphere, allowing stronger thunderstorms later in the day, while morning clouds will allow for a gentler and steadier rain.
The best day for showers is Wednesday, which is incidentally the coolest day of the week, as the low pressure off the West Coast is forced inland by a storm moving southeastward through the Gulf of Alaska. This is also when snow levels drop below 14,000′, perhaps leading to the first dusting of snow on Colorado’s highest peaks Thursday and Friday mornings.
Rainfall for our area is forecast to be significant, between one and one-and-a-half inches, and is sorely needed. The monsoonal moisture tap is forecast to be severed by the end of the work week by westerly winds associated with the Gulf of Alaska storm as it approaches the Pacific Northwest, bringing a warming and drying trend into next weekend.
Let’s hope the moisture arrives beneficially with light to moderate rainfall rates, as heavy downpours will be problematic around recent burn scars. Relish the wet workweek ahead, and I’ll have more details about the weekend’s forecast in my next regularly scheduled weather narrative on Thursday afternoon.
After record heat, temperatures to cool with shower chances for the weekend
Thursday, August 21, 2025
After a fourth straight day with temperatures in the nineties, clouds have appeared this Thursday mid-afternoon in Steamboat Springs as a monsoonal push of moisture begins. Temperatures are forecast to fall into the mid-eighties on Friday and the weekend, with shower chances best on Friday. But significant precipitation becomes very likely next week as temperatures fall into the seventies.
Record high temperatures were set in town this week; while the ninety degree high on Monday was the second warmest behind the 94 F in 2020, Tuesday’s high of 93 F broke the 91 F record set in 2020, Wednesday’s high of 94 F shattered the 90 F record set in 2023, and today’s record of 91 F, also set in 2023, is in jeapordy. The three-day 92.3 F average high temperature for Monday through Wednesday was the 16th warmest three-day stretch since 1893, with the hottest being a blistering 97 F for the three days ending on August 8th and 10th in 2001. August 2001 was an all-time scorcher, holding eight of the twelve hottest three-day stretches and the top four spots.
Fortunately, the lack of wind with these record temperatures kept the growth of the surrounding wildfires in check, allowing containment of the Lee Fire to increase from 42% Sunday to 73% today, and the Crosho fire to increase from 5% Sunday to 24% today.
A storm traveling from the Canadian Plains toward the Great Lakes has flattened a ridge of high pressure over the West, with clockwise flow around the high carrying monsoonal moisture first northward into Nevada, then northeastward into Utah, and eventually eastward into Colorado. A couple of waves rotating around the Canadian storm will increase shower chances Friday afternoon and evening, with high temperatures cooling into the mid-eighties, still above our average of eighty degrees.
Similar temperatures are forecast for Saturday and Sunday, with decreased shower chances on Saturday being followed by increasing shower chances later Sunday. A wave ejecting from a storm in the Gulf of Alaska is forecast to slide southward off the West Coast early in the weekend before moving eastward, nudging the high pressure eastward and substantially increasing the flow of monsoonal moisture northward.
Significant precipitation is expected for the next workweek, with rainfall rates uncertain and likely to depend on cloud cover, potentially ranging from one to two inches. Morning cloudiness will inhibit thunderstorm strength and lead to a steadier rain over a longer time, while less cloudiness will allow the lower atmosphere to heat and contribute to stronger thunderstorms, similar to the cloudburst from last Friday.
Enjoy the summer weekend ahead, and I’ll have more details on this encouraging monsoonal push in my next regularly scheduled weather narrative on Sunday afternoon.
