Workweek to stay cold and turn dry behind snow showers on Monday night and Tuesday
Sunday, January 12, 2025
Mostly sunny skies and cool temperatures near twenty degrees in town and five degrees near the top of the hill are over Steamboat Springs late this Sunday afternoon. The arctic air mass of the last storm will keep the cold temperatures around through the workweek with mostly sunny skies arriving for Wednesday afternoon and Thursday. More arctic air and another storm are possible near the beginning of the long Martin Luther King Jr. weekend.
The weekend storm started as expected with 5” reported at mid-mountain and 6” up top for the Saturday morning report. While it sometimes snowed hard during the morning, a short break early Saturday afternoon was quickly followed by heavy snow showers with snowfall rates over an inch per hour between 4 pm and 11 pm. More impressively, A time-lapse of the Steamboat Powdercam with images every twenty minutes showed two inches of snowfall in the twenty minutes between 4:00 pm - 4:20 pm, 5:00 pm - 5:20 pm and 8:20 - 8:40 pm, which equates to snowfall rates of six inches per hour!
Perfect temperatures for the growth of dendrites, the classic branch-shaped snow crystal that creates dry and fluffy powder, a very unstable atmosphere with sufficient moisture, and weak storm energy combined to create the surprise. The SNOTEL at Buffalo Pass indicated the snow likely contained about 5% water, which equates to a snow-liquid water ratio of 20:1.
The result was 28” in 24 hours at the top of the Steamboat Ski Resort by Sunday morning, with 17” of that occurring after the lifts closed. Mid-mountain reported 15” in 24 hours, with 9” occurring after the lifts closed. And the sun appeared by mid-morning today, creating a sparkling winter landscape!
Now, an expansive trough of low pressure is over most of North America while a ridge of high pressure extends south from Alaska down the West Coast. A couple of waves of energy and cold air rounding the ridge and eventually moving to the southwest will reinforce the arctic air mass tonight and tomorrow, bringing colder temperatures and the chance for some light high-elevation snow showers Monday night and Tuesday.
Low temperatures will be subzero and around ten degrees below our average of 4 F through Wednesday morning, with high temperatures in town mired in the teens, over ten degrees below our average of 29 F. But a storm extending southward from the Aleutian Islands is forecast to move eastward through the workweek, forcing the ridge of high pressure toward our area. We should see mostly sunny skies by Wednesday afternoon that last for Thursday, helping temperatures to approach average on Wednesday and several degrees above average on Thursday.
The Aleutian storm is forecast to mix with another arctic air mass as it approaches our area early next weekend. More snow is possible, along with more cold temperatures. Enjoy the wintry workweek ahead, and I’ll have more details about the possible weekend storm in my next regularly scheduled weather narrative on Thursday afternoon.
Cold temperatures to continue with a moderate storm for Saturday
Thursday, January 9, 2025
Temperatures are in the low twenties in Steamboat Springs and at seven degrees near the top of the Steamboat Ski Resort this Thursday mid-afternoon under mostly cloudy skies. Another frigid day on Friday will precede a moderate storm on Saturday that will linger into Sunday. Other than overnight low temperatures warming on Saturday morning thanks to the insulating effects of the storm clouds, cold temperatures will stick around with high temperatures below our average of twenty-nine degrees, which incidentally is now slowly rising due to increasing daylight, through the weekend and into next week.
A small storm last night left about two inches at mid-mountain at the Steamboat Ski Resort, and a quickly-moving ridge of high pressure will eventually bring mostly clear skies through Friday. We could see another frigid night tonight if skies clear completely, but perhaps not as cold as the -14 F observed Wednesday morning at the Bob Adams airport and the -18 F at my weather station near the ski area’s base.
Meanwhile, a storm in the Gulf of Alaska is forecast to cross the Pacific Northwest coast Friday afternoon and move through the Great Basin on Saturday as it elongates to the southwest. Snow showers should begin after midnight Friday and become moderate to heavy at times starting before sunrise Saturday and continuing through the day along and behind the cold front.
Snowfall by the Saturday morning report will depend upon the front’s timing, but we could see 3-6” at mid-mountain with another 3-6” during the day. In addition to the snowfall on Saturday, there could be another 1-4” by the Sunday morning report as snow showers slowly taper off in our favorable cold, moist and unstable northwest flow behind the storm.
Other than the Saturday morning temperatures in town moving to above our average of four degrees thanks, ironically, to the cold front, high temperatures in town will not make it above the low-twenties, and the single digits at mountaintop. In fact, current forecasts have temperatures at mountaintop slowly falling from around ten degrees just before the cold front early Saturday morning to minus five degrees by Sunday morning, punctuated by winds from the west gusting to 40 mph for several hours centered around Saturday noon.
Waves of cold air spinning around a vortex of low pressure near Hudson Bay will keep the cold, mostly cloudy and sometimes showery weather around through Monday before a ridge of high pressure begins to move in early in the workweek. So bundle up for the continued wintry days ahead, hope for more snow than forecast, and check back for more details on the amount and elevation of the midweek warming in my next regularly scheduled weather narrative on Sunday afternoon.
Snow to continue into Tuesday with another chance on Thursday
Sunday, January 5, 2025
Some sun has broken out late this Sunday afternoon in Steamboat Springs with temperatures near thirty degrees in town and ten degrees near the top of the Steamboat Ski Resort. Snowfall chances will continue into Tuesday as the current storm departs and the next storm approaches, though snowfall amounts related to the second storm will be light. A break in the weather highlighted by a frigid Wednesday morning will be over by Thursday as another storm brings a round of light snowfall.
In addition to the seven inches reported at mid-mountain this morning and fifteen inches up top, four inches of snow fell at mid-mountain since the report. While the current storm has already moved across the Kansas - Missouri border, show showers have continued in the favorable cool, moist and unstable northwest flow behind the storm. As subtle embedded waves move overhead, we could see another 3-6” of snow overnight which would be added to this morning’s accumulated snow.
Light snow showers will continue Monday morning ahead of the next storm crossing the Oregon coast this evening. The storm will mix with some arctic air from western Canada, and even though the storm is forecast to move through Nevada Monday night, a cold front sweeping through our area Monday afternoon should keep snow showers going into Monday evening or early Tuesday morning. Accumulations by the Tuesday morning report will likely only be in the 2-5” range.
Unfortunately, thanks to the storm’s location to our southwest, we will see easterly winds by Monday night or early Tuesday morning, shutting off the precipitation as air downslopes off the Park Range. Winds could be gusting to 30 mph by late Tuesday morning, making lift rides on westerly-facing chairlifts quite unpleasant.
Some dry air behind the storm and ahead of our next storm for Thursday will combine with the arctic air mass to bring frigid subzero temperatures for Wednesday morning, with lows in town forecast to be between -5 F and -15 F, well below our 4 F average. Mountain-top temperatures are forecast to be a bit warmer, but still between 0 F and -10 F.
Though high temperatures are forecast to rise to the low-twenties in town on Wednesday, similar to Tuesday and Thursday and below our average of 28 F, I would not be surprised to see them mired in the teens despite mostly sunny skies due to such a cold start to the day.
A weak wave of energy and moisture is then forecast to move through a quickly building ridge of high pressure over the Pacific Northwest on Wednesday and bring light snow chances back to our area on Thursday. After another break in the weather Friday, a stronger storm is forecast for the weekend.
So enjoy the wintry week, and I’ll have more details on the storm for next weekend in my next regularly scheduled weather narrative on Thursday afternoon.
A nice Friday to be followed by more snow starting Saturday afternoon
Thursday, January 2, 2025
Temperatures are finally above freezing this Thursday mid-afternoon in Steamboat Springs, and in the upper teens near the top of the Steamboat Ski Resort under cloudy skies. Some lingering upper-elevation snow showers will end this evening before being followed by a pleasant and mostly sunny Friday. But more snow is coming thanks to an approaching winter storm that begins Saturday afternoon and winds down Sunday night.
We received three inches of snow at mid-mountain and five inches up top as of today’s 5 am ski report, making yesterday’s update inappropriate. Sadly, the warming atmosphere overcame the favorable orographics, or terrain-based lifting, to invalidate some of the more bullish short-range models that prompted the update. One of these models is notorious for over-predicting snowfall, perhaps due to the internal physics that converts cloud water and ice into snow, though occasionally it gets the prediction right. The often-wrong-but-sometimes-right feature makes this forecaster’s job quite difficult as the precipitation range often increases as we get closer to an event.
That said, our next winter storm is moving through the Gulf of Alaska and should cross most of the West Coast later Friday. A ridge of high pressure will quickly build ahead of the storm and move through our area on Friday, bringing mostly sunny skies and high temperatures approaching forty degrees in town, well above the 28 F average.
Though the storm will split to some degree by Saturday morning, most of the storm will cross the Great Basin during the day Saturday before moving over Colorado Saturday night and into Kansas on Sunday. Snow showers should begin Saturday afternoon and become moderate to heavy later in the day and overnight. Unlike the storm last night, this one has plenty of cold air associated with it and we should transition to our favorable northwest flow Saturday night that will last through Sunday night.
We should see 6-12” of snow by the Sunday morning report, with some occurring Saturday afternoon. Snow showers will continue through the day Sunday and overnight, though diminish in coverage and intensity, with another 3-6” of snow which would be reported Monday morning.
High temperatures in town will fall back below average on a snowy Sunday, and stay there through much of the work week as another storm with colder air is forecast for Tuesday. However, uncertainty is high due to the strongly splitting nature of the next storm and its ultimate trajectory.
So enjoy the nice start to the weekend and the snow for the second half of the weekend, and check back for more details about the early week storm in my next regularly scheduled weather narrative on Sunday afternoon.
Quick update for more snow tonight
Wednesday, January 1, 2025
It’s cold and grey in Steamboat Springs on the first day of 2025 with temperatures at all elevations around ten degrees at noon, after low temperatures of -5 F in town and -1 F near the top of the Steamboat Ski Resort. This quick update addresses a stronger and closer wave for tonight than discussed in my last weather narrative on Sunday.
The remnants of an atmospheric river entering the Great Basin in our favorable northwest flow will graze north-central Colorado tonight and tomorrow. Snowfall should pick up around mid-evening, and I now expect 4-8” of snow at mid-mountain by the Thursday morning ski report, with another 2-5” during the day, some of which will fall between the report and the opening of the lifts.
The snowfall will be accompanied by gusty winds up to 40 mph from the west and northwest, which could make travel difficult at times over Rabbit Ears Pass and impact snow quality on the hill. Additionally, the atmosphere will slowly warm during the storm, often adversely affecting snowfall amounts and quality.
Currently, dry weather and warming temperatures are forecast for Friday and half of Saturday before snowfall begins again as early as Saturday afternoon and lasts through Monday. I’ll have more details on the weekend weather in my next regularly scheduled weather narrative on Thursday afternoon.
