Small chance of showers to briefly interrupt more summery weather
Sunday, October 4, 2026
Temperatures are already near 70 degrees under sunny skies in Steamboat Springs on this Sunday at noon. Other than a brief increase in cloudiness early in the workweek, with a small chance of a shower, our summery stretch of weather will continue into next weekend. Soak up the summery weather now, however, as an abrupt change to more seasonable weather may occur soon after.
The fall color spectacle has been great this year, despite its late arrival and the warnings of dull color. Leaves above 9.000′ are falling as the color migrates to the lower elevations.
A ridge of high pressure over the West is responsible for this stretch of spectacular weather. A weak area of low pressure approaching the central California coast is forecast to cross the Great Basin through Tuesday, though the clouds and only a slight chance of a shower will not keep high temperatures from the mid-70s, above our 65-degree average.
Differences between some of the short-range models mean clouds may arrive as soon as late Monday, with clearing afterwards, or as late as late Tuesday, lasting into Wednesday, with the later arrival perhaps accompanied by a slight chance of a shower.
Otherwise, mostly sunny skies return for the rest of the workweek, with the beautiful weather extending into at least the start of next weekend. However, changes occurring in the Eastern Pacific this week portend changes occurring over our area by mid-weekend, or early the following workweek.
A wave in the jet stream ahead of the northeastward-moving Super Typhoon Choi-Wan off the southeast coast of Japan will strengthen as cold Arctic air pours through the Bering Straight. The wave will elongate and split near the Dateline by midweek, move through the Gulf of Alaska, and approach the Pacific Northwest coast by early in the weekend. Additionally, Hurricane Rachel, southwest of Baja, may also interact with the incoming storm after it crosses the Pacific Northwest coast.
While the ridge of high pressure over the West will offer some resistance, the incoming storm will eventually win, bringing below-average temperatures and a chance of the season’s first snowfall above mid-mountain at the Steamboat Ski Resort. Lots of moving pieces need to interact before any certainty can be added to the forecast, which I hope to have in time for my next regularly scheduled weather narrative on Thursday afternoon.
Until then, get outside and enjoy the certainty of another summery week, accompanied by the bedazzling fall color spectacle.
Gorgeous weekend ahead
Thursday, October 1, 2026
Temperatures in the low 70s and mostly sunny skies are over Steamboat Springs this Thursday mid-afternoon. The lovely weather will continue through the weekend, lasting through at least Monday.
High pressure over California will move slowly east through the weekend, crossing the Continental Divide around Monday. Mostly sunny skies will bring warming temperatures through the weekend, cresting 75 degrees by Sunday, around 10 degrees above our declining 65-degree average.
The NOAA smoke model shows wildfire smoke from the Dome fire near Yosemite, which started September 15th, approaching our area by Saturday morning, with hazy skies possible, but not certain.
| Steamboat Springs 2026 | Observed precipitation | Average precipitation |
|---|---|---|
| May | 3.51” | 2.65” |
| June | 0.43” | 1.58” |
| July | 2.24” | 1.72” |
| August | 2.77” | 1.80” |
| September | 3.07” | 2.32” |
| Total | 12.02” | 10.07” |
The quiet forecast allows some space to discuss the relatively wet summer from May through September, though most people I talk to are surprised to hear we were not well below average, as they remember the July and August heat more than the precipitation. And hot it was, with the 29 days of 90-degree-or-above temperatures this summer tying the record set in 2002.
July had 17 days at or above 90 degrees, including a scorching stretch of 11 days between July 11th and July 21st, contributing to the hottest month ever since record-keeping started in 1893, and an additional 12 days in August. But that did not stop some showers, some intense and some more gentle and long-lasting, from bringing a foot of water from May through September to the town, 20% above the 10” average, as indicated in the table.
October will start warm and dry, with a small chance of some showers appearing around Tuesday. So enjoy the gorgeous weekend, highlighted by the stunning colors of the changing foliage, and I’ll have more details on the possible incoming storm and the likely return to dry, warm weather for the rest of the workweek, which may last through the following weekend.
Wet start to the workweek
Sunday, September 27, 2026
Temperatures are in the comfortable low 70s with mostly sunny skies this Sunday at noon in Steamboat Springs. An approaching complex storm will start the workweek with wet, cool weather, though it is not yet clear how cold it will be, or whether showers stick around through midweek. Warmer, drier weather will end the workweek and is forecast to last through at least next weekend.
A trough of low pressure approaching the West Coast has split, a recent development since my Thursday weather narrative, weakening and warming the storm. While former hurricane and now Tropical Storm Odalys has injected moisture into the southwest winds ahead of the trough as forecast, the further-south track has created more opportunity for Hurricane Polo, forecast to cross the southern Baja Peninsula on Monday, to interact with the former Gulf of Alaska storm on Tuesday.
While we will still see increasing clouds later today and a small chance of showers through the night, better moisture is ahead of and behind a cool front arriving during the day Monday. Showers become likely with high temperatures mired in the low-60s, below our 68-degree average.
However, the split storm now means warmer temperatures, making snowflakes at the top of the Steamboat Ski Resort unlikely.
More wet weather is possible Tuesday, with mid-60-degree high temperatures, as the trough and storm Polo interact over the Desert Southwest and likely merge in some way. A merger further south, favored by the European ECMWF, may reduce shower chances compared to the American weather forecast models.
Our Wednesday weather will heavily depend on this merger, with the position and track of the merged storm uncertain. The latest American NAM, a forecast running out to 3 days, now has the merged storm moving across southern Colorado during the day, a big change from its earlier forecast, resulting in possibly heavy rain for southern Colorado and even our area depending on its northern reach.
Whether the shower chances extend into Thursday depends entirely on the track and speed of the merged storm, with the latest European model now forecasting a slower storm for a showery Thursday.
The weather forecast models agree the merged storm will finally move east of the Divide by the end of the workweek, bringing dry and warm weather with temperatures back to the low-70s that looks to extend through next weekend. So get out and enjoy the changing fall colors today, peaking at and above 9,000′ as indicated by the photo I captured from the Steamboat Ski Resort on Saturday. I’ll have more details about next weekend in my next regularly scheduled weather narrative on Thursday afternoon.
Shower chances to bookend a nice weekend
Thursday, September 24, 2026
Filtered sunshine and temperatures right at our 70-degree average are over Steamboat Springs this Thursday mid-afternoon. Monsoonal moisture will bring a chance of showers this afternoon and again through Friday morning before a cool front sweeps it eastward in the afternoon for a beautiful first weekend of fall. But showers return on Monday, with perhaps our first dusting of snow at the top of the Steamboat Ski Resort on Tuesday morning.
Monsoonal moisture will continue to be drawn northward over our area through Friday morning by winds between a storm approaching the Pacific Northwest and high pressure extending from Texas northeastward across the Great Plains. A wave traveling northward around the backside of the high pressure will bring good chances of early morning showers on Friday, lingering until around noon as the Pacific Northwest storm crosses the coast and sends a cool front our way.
While the Pacific Northwest storm will rotate into Alberta by Saturday, forced eastward by another developing and cold storm in the Gulf of Alaska, westerly breezes behind the cool front will clear the monsoonal moisture eastward, ending showers by Friday afternoon.
This sets the stage for a gorgeous first Saturday of fall, with mostly sunny skies and temperatures in the low-seventies. Expect more of the same for Sunday, except for increasing afternoon clouds ahead of a very interesting start to the workweek.
Our weather will be influenced not only by the approaching Gulf of Alaska storm, but by two hurricanes: Hurricane Polo, located about 100 miles offshore of southwestern Mexico, and Hurricane Odalys, located well west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California.
Moisture from Odalys will be the first to reach our area starting later Sunday, as it is drawn northeastward by the winds ahead of the approaching cold storm forecast to cross the central California coast Sunday night. Shower chances increase dramatically on Monday as Polo moves toward the Baja coast, injecting copious moisture into the southwest winds ahead of the approaching cold storm and bringing a wet start to the workweek.
The storm is forecast to cross the Great Basin on Monday, bringing our first true cold front of the season during the day. Snow levels are forecast to drop to mountain-top levels on Tuesday morning, possibly bringing the first snows of the season to the top of the Steamboat Ski Resort.
However, unsurprisingly, there is a lot of uncertainty due to so many moving parts. So enjoy what should be a quintessential Colorado fall weekend, and look forward to the meteorologically exciting start to the workweek when a polar front interacts with two tropical systems. I’ll have the latest details about that in my next regularly scheduled weather narrative on Sunday afternoon.
Pleasant workweek with a chance of showers heading into midweek
Sunday, September 20, 2026
Skies have turned mostly sunny this Sunday at noon in Steamboat Springs with temperatures in the upper-50s, after impressively persistent storms brought rainfall from Wednesday evening to Saturday night. Much quieter weather begins today and lasts through the workweek, with clouds and possibly brief showers from later Tuesday into Wednesday morning, right around the autumnal equinox, which occurs at 6:04 pm on Tuesday.
Official records from the long-term weather station behind the high school show 1.46” of rain from Wednesday afternoon to 7 am Saturday, and I measured another third of an inch through the day near the Steamboat Ski Resort, likely bringing the monthly total so far to around 2”, already near the 2.32 monthly average. This was after a relatively wet August bringing 2.77” of rain, almost an inch above the 1.8” average.
The rain was courtesy of a healthy plume of monsoonal moisture rotating northward between high pressure over the Southeast and an eddy of low pressure, now in Wyoming, that lumbered across the Great Basin. Westerly winds behind the storm have swept the monsoonal moisture eastward and brought cooler temperatures today, with high temperatures in the mid-60s, below our average of 72 degrees.
A weak area of low pressure is forecast to cross southern California on Monday while a ridge of high pressure builds over Texas behind the Wyoming storm. The building ridge will deflect the eddy across the Great Basin on Tuesday, even as it shears and weakens, leaving some behind in southern California. As what remains of the eddy moves into Wyoming on Wednesday, we may see brief showers from later Tuesday into Wednesday morning as another round of monsoonal moisture is drawn northward between the low and high pressure systems.
Another pulse of monsoonal moisture is possible on Thursday as a relatively well-defined lobe of energy is drawn northward around the Texas high pressure. Meanwhile, a storm is forecast to develop in the Gulf of Alaska by midweek and cross the Pacific Northwest coast near the end of the workweek before being deflected to the northeast as the Texas ridge builds into the Great Plains.
While the storm will be well to our west and eventually north, westerly winds associated with the storm are forecast to push the monsoonal moisture plume to our east, resulting in a nice weekend. But that may not last, as another Pacific Northwest storm develops and perhaps interacts with a forecast hurricane approaching Baja after the weekend.
So enjoy a pleasant workweek while we dry out from the recent rains, and I’ll have the latest weekend details in my next regularly scheduled weather narrative on Thursday afternoon.
