Pattern change delayed until later Sunday
Thursday, November 13, 2025
Another spectacular fall day is over Steamboat Springs this Thursday mid-afternoon with sunny skies and temperatures just above sixty degrees, fifteen degrees above average. A storm to our north will bring some breezes on Friday and passing clouds on Saturday, along with a few degrees of cooling to start the weekend. By later Sunday, the pattern change that was earlier expected as early as Friday finally arrives, with increasing clouds during the day and showers by the afternoon or evening.
Fall and spring storms can be difficult to forecast as cold air is rapidly forming in the northern latitudes while warm air still resides in the southern latitudes. One or the other will dominate, though subtle differences in the atmospheric flows eventually dictate the outcome. This storm ended up slowing and splitting compared to the weather model guidance used in last Sunday’s weather narrative, delaying the anticipated pattern change and bringing another several days of very pleasant fall weather.
The northern end of the storm is forecast to traverse the Northern Rockies on Friday, bringing increased westerly breezes in the afternoon, but leaving our high temperatures untouched and in the lower sixties. The grazing storm will knock high temperatures back several degrees into the high fifties on Saturday, still around fifteen degrees above our rapidly falling average of forty-three degrees, along with some passing clouds.
Meanwhile, the southern end of the split storm will be forced eastward across southern California Saturday night by a new storm forecast to develop in the Gulf of Alaska on Saturday and accelerate northeastward across the Great Basin during Sunday. There is still uncertainty regarding the onset of precipitation, but we can expect a mostly cloudy day with increasing chances of showers, possibly as early as noon or as late as the evening.
Due to its southern trajectory, the storm will be warm, with rain in town and snow levels starting near 10,000′ early Sunday and declining to around 7,500′ by early Monday. Precipitation should taper off during the day, with current forecasts indicating about a third of an inch of rain in town and 3-6” of snow near the top of the Steamboat Ski Area by Monday afternoon.
The developing Gulf of Alaska storm is then forecast to cross the West Coast on Monday, with its evolution and path as it moves eastward uncertain. Be sure to take advantage of what may be our last stretch of beautiful fall weather, and I’ll have more details on what to expect next week in my next regularly scheduled weather narrative on Sunday afternoon. And remember, please join me on Tuesday, November 18th, at 6:30 pm at the Bud Werner Memorial Library, where I’ll be discussing how I use the SnowAlarm website to forecast the weather.
Warm and dry weather ahead of likely end-of-workweek pattern change
Sunday, November 9, 2025
Sunny skies are over Steamboat Springs this Sunday mid-afternoon, with temperatures a degree above our average of forty-six degrees. Even warmer temperatures, ten or more degrees above average, passing clouds, and some afternoon breezes are forecast for most of the workweek ahead of a likely pattern change bringing wet and cold weather starting as soon as Friday.
A ridge of high pressure over the West is sandwiched between an elongating trough of low pressure over the eastern Pacific and a vortex of unseasonably cold air extending southward from north of the Great Lakes. While the cold air over the Midwest will eventually engulf the entire eastern half of the country through midweek, possibly bringing freezing temperatures to northern Florida, the ridge of high pressure will keep warm and dry weather overhead through Thursday with high temperatures in the mid-to-upper fifties.
The southern end of the eastern Pacific trough is forecast to form an eddy by Monday, which loiters between Hawaii and southern California through Tuesday, as the northern end races across the Pacific Northwest, bringing breezy afternoon winds to our area on Tuesday as it briefly flattens the ridge of high pressure overhead.
Meanwhile, a new storm is predicted to form in the Bering Sea on Monday, elongating southward as it moves into the Gulf of Alaska on Tuesday, similar to the previous storm. However, this storm does not split and remains intact, absorbing some of the eddy and eventually bringing a wet and cold pattern to the West Coast on Thursday and the Interior West on Friday.
Ahead of that storm, part of the eddy will be forced northeastward, quickly moving overhead on Wednesday, bringing clouds that should not dent the warm workweek temperatures. Another warm day is forecast for Thursday before the incoming storm affects our weather as soon as Friday.
Until then, enjoy another mild fall workweek, and I’ll certainly have more details on how this promising pattern change is evolving in my next regularly scheduled weather narrative on Thursday afternoon. And a heads up! Are you interested in learning how I use my website to make a weather forecast? On Tuesday, November 18th, at 6:30 pm at the Bud Werner Memorial Library, I’ll walk you through the process and show you the tools I use at SnowAlarm.com to create this weather narrative.
Cooler weekend temperatures with precipitation chances later today and Friday night
Thursday, November 6, 2025
After a cloudy morning in Steamboat Springs that produced a quick noon shower, some partial clearing early this Thursday afternoon should give way to some more showers later today. Another brief period of mostly sunny skies to start Friday will be followed by increasing afternoon clouds and late afternoon and overnight precipitation chances. Increasingly sunny but cool weather is advertised for the weekend, followed by another warm and dry workweek.
An ejected piece of energy from a storm bringing high winds and precipitation to the Pacific Northwest and northern California was responsible for the noon shower, with another piece bringing more precipitation chances later this afternoon and tonight. These showers produced some brief low-elevation graupel and a dusting of snow above 9,000′, according to Steamboat’s upper mountain powdercam and mid-mountain powdercam.
While Friday will start mostly sunny, the Pacific Northwest storm is forecast to travel through Idaho early in the day and across the northern Rockies Friday night. Increasing clouds by noon on Friday will give way to another round of showers by Friday afternoon and evening as the southern end of the storm passes through our area, with some snowflakes possible in town. High temperatures for the day will be within a few degrees of our average of forty-seven degrees, quite the cooldown from the mid-to-upper sixties we enjoyed earlier this week.
There could be several inches of snow at high elevations by Saturday morning, on a cool day, with high temperatures only in the low forties. An additional wave of dry and cold air spinning around a vortex over Hudson Bay will be ingested by the trailing edge of the storm Saturday night, bringing low temperatures in the mid-teens for Sunday morning, below our average of nineteen degrees, and good for snowmaking operations at the Steamboat Ski Resort.
Temperatures will warm back to around average on a mostly sunny Sunday as a ridge of high pressure begins to build over the West ahead of a strong storm forecast to develop over the eastern Pacific. Even warmer temperatures are forecast to start the workweek, with little hope for precipitation until the end of the workweek or the following weekend.
Enjoy the improving weather for the weekend, and I’ll have more details on the eastern Pacific storm and the end-of-week precipitation chances in my next regularly scheduled weather narrative on Sunday afternoon.
Gorgeous weather to continue through midweek with cold front later Thursday
Sunday, November 2, 2025
A spectacular fall day is over Steamboat Springs this Sunday, with sunny skies and temperatures already at sixty degrees as we approach noon. Warm and mostly sunny weather will continue through midweek before a weakening cold front approaches later Thursday.
A ridge of high pressure extending northward from the Desert Southwest has diverted the jet stream to be over the northern Rockies, keeping the storm track and cold air bottled up over Canada. Our average high temperature of fifty degrees will be exceeded by ten to fifteen degrees through Wednesday, with mostly sunny skies except for some clouds Monday morning as a weak disturbance from southern California moves overhead.
Meanwhile, a storm approaching the Aleutian Islands is forecast to intensify as it crosses the Gulf of Alaska and crosses the Pacific Northwest coast on Wednesday. The ridge of high pressure that was responsible for this stunning fall weather will be forced eastward as a cold front associated with the storm moves through our area sometime on Thursday.
The front, which will turn winds to be from the northwest, has trended weaker in the weather forecast models. Still, as of today, it will be strong enough to cool high temperatures back to around average on Thursday, or perhaps below, with rain showers possible in town and accumulating snow showers likely at higher elevations.
Be sure to enjoy the spectacular weather through midweek. I’ll have the latest details on the Thursday cold front and if the unsettled weather in cool northwest flow lingers into next weekend in my next regularly scheduled weather narrative on Thursday afternoon.
Beautiful weekend ahead, with warm temperatures by Sunday
Thursday, October 30, 2025
After reaching almost fifty-five degrees this afternoon, temperatures have dropped into the mid-forties this early evening in Steamboat Springs as the sun sets. A wave of cold air moving to our northeast will bring some clouds by tonight and a few degrees of cooling on Friday, despite skies turning mostly sunny after noon, leaving fine weather for a Halloween stroll. High temperatures rebound a few degrees on Saturday before warming to the low sixties starting Sunday and lasting through midweek.
A wave of cold air is sliding southeastward toward the Midwest on the backside of a ridge of high pressure extending northward from the Pacific Northwest. The wave will clip our area starting tonight, bringing some cloudiness that will last through Friday morning, and cooler air that will lower high temperatures a few degrees below our average of fifty-one degrees.
A trailing wave may start Saturday with some clouds, but mostly sunny skies by the afternoon will allow high temperatures to rise back to the low fifties.
Meanwhile, a strong storm rotating through the Gulf of Alaska will push the Pacific Northwest ridge of high pressure eastward and over our area by Sunday, even as the ridge weakens and shifts south due to energy ejecting from the Gulf of Alaska storm. Winds will shift to be from the northwest to the warmer west, allowing high temperatures to rise into the low sixties on Sunday and producing a stunning fall day.
The gorgeous weather is forecast to persist to start the workweek, and may last through midweek before we see the first chances for precipitation near the end of the workweek. Be sure to take advantage of the gorgeous fall weather, enjoy your Halloween, including Friday’s annual Halloween Stroll, and check back for more details on a possible incoming storm in my next regularly scheduled weather narrative on Sunday afternoon.
