Workweek to start with a warm storm and end with a cold storm
Sunday, January 4, 2026
A cloudy morning in Steamboat Springs this Sunday has given way to some noontime sun, with thirty-eight-degree temperatures in town and twenty-seven-degree temperatures at the top of the Steamboat Ski Resort. Similar to the warm storm that ended last Friday, which left seven-and-a-half inches of snowfall at mid-mountain, another warm storm is forecast to begin snowfall on Monday and last into Tuesday. After a short break, a colder storm is expected to start later Wednesday and linger into Friday.
A blanket of fog covered the Yampa Valley Saturday morning after about six-tenths of an inch of liquid fell during the day Thursday and Thursday night. Even though dry air overspread the valley by Saturday morning, fog formed and persisted early in the day, as shown by the time-lapse from the Steamboat Thunderhead cam between 6:40 am and 10:40 am.
A trough of low pressure off the West Coast is now directing moisture over a ridge of high pressure over the Rockies, leading to our mix of sun and clouds. A wave of energy rounding the base of the trough will move overhead on Monday, starting precipitation as early as Monday morning. The storm will be warm, a few degrees cooler than the last storm, but that may be enough to limit the raindrops in town to perhaps a few hours around noon.
Gusty westerly winds reaching as high as 50 mph on Monday afternoon will accompany the snowfall, with snowfall briefly picking up around sunset as a cool front associated with the wave moves through. Mountain-top temperatures will slowly fall into the teens by Tuesday morning, though the best moisture may be past when the coldest temperatures arrive. We could see 3-6” at mid-mountain by the Tuesday morning report, with weather forecast models disagreeing on the amount of moisture behind the cool front and whether snow showers continue into Tuesday morning, with another inch or two of fluffier snowfall possible.
Meanwhile, incoming northern Pacific energy will force the West Coast trough to shear, with the southern end forming an eddy and perhaps affecting our next storm, and the northern end moving across the northern Rockies. The northern wave may drag another weak but dry cool front through our area on Tuesday afternoon, for another afternoon of gusty winds.
More incoming Pacific energy will carry a wave of energy and moisture, now over northern Japan, across the Aleutian Islands on Monday and the Gulf of Alaska on Tuesday. Cold arctic air from the north will be ingested into and strengthen the wave, bringing a storm across the Pacific Northwest on Wednesday.
Weather forecast models have struggled with the speed and strength of this wave and its eventual interaction with the remnants of the West Coast eddy. Right now, flurries could start Wednesday afternoon or evening, with stronger showers following when a leading cool front grazes our area on Thursday morning, and again when the much stronger arctic front follows on Thursday night.
While colder air by Friday morning is the more certain outcome, moisture availability is uncertain as it will depend upon the interaction between the cold storm from the northwest and the moist eddy to the south. It is also unclear whether the storm slows or even stalls, perhaps prolonging snowfall into Friday morning. We could see as much as 6-12”, or less than half that, depending upon the storm’s evolution.
Let’s hope these two storms can produce since warm and dry weather is forecast for the weekend, lasting into and perhaps through the following workweek. I’ll have more details on the colder storm to end this workweek in my next regularly scheduled weather narrative on Thursday afternoon.
Nice start to the weekend after a warm Friday storm
Thursday, January 1, 2026
Cloudy skies are over Steamboat Springs this noon on New Year’s Day, with temperatures around thirty degrees in town and twenty-seven degrees at the top of the Steamboat Ski Resort. An approaching warm storm will bring significant snowfall above 8,000′ tonight and Friday ahead of nice weather to start the first weekend of 2026. Another warm storm is forecast to begin on Monday.
The remnants of a weakening eddy now over central California, part of which was left behind from the storm last weekend, has ingested tropical and subtropical moisture while it was vacationing off the West Coast earlier this week. The eddy is forecast to move through the ridge of high pressure over the Rockies that brought the gorgeous weather to the Yampa Valley this past week.
Snow showers will start this afternoon at the higher elevations, but snow levels around 7,500′ mean showers will be either liquid or a wintry mix at the lower elevations when precipitation eventually starts later this afternoon.
The eddy remnants are forecast to move through Nevada and Utah tonight, and Colorado on Friday. Very little cold air is associated with the storm, with temperatures dropping only a few degrees around noon on Friday, as a weak cool front passes with the storm.
But a lot of moisture, and first westerly and then northwesterly winds impinging on and lifted by the Park Range should create significant orographic, or terrain-lifted, snowfall above 8,000′. We could see 3-6” of snow at mid-mountain for the Friday morning report, with another 3-6” during the day. An additional 1-4” could fall through Friday evening in favorable, but drying, northwest flow behind the storm.
Meanwhile, a narrow trough of low pressure, extending southward from the Gulf of Alaska, will evolve in a complicated fashion through the weekend as waves of energy move eastward across the Pacific and southward from Alaska.
A transient ridge of high pressure forming over the West behind the departing storm and ahead of the eastern Pacific trough will bring warming temperatures and mostly sunny skies on Saturday. Weather forecast models agree that energy and moisture slingshot around the base of the trough will bring precipitation chances back to our area to start the workweek; however, it is uncertain whether mostly sunny skies will persist into Sunday for part or all of the day.
Enjoy what should be the first powder day of 2026 on Friday and a nice start to the weekend, and I’ll have more details on the Monday storm in my next regularly scheduled weather narrative on Sunday afternoon.
Temperatures to warm through the rest of this year ahead of precipitation chances for the New Year
Sunday, December 28, 2025
A brisk winter day with mostly sunny afternoon skies is over Steamboat Springs this Sunday, with temperatures in the low twenties in town and only two degrees at the top of the Steamboat Ski Resort at mid-afternoon. After a foot of fresh powder fell at mid-mountain and fifteen inches up top, warming temperatures and mostly sunny skies will close out 2025, with precipitation chances returning for the start of the New Year.
A ridge of high pressure is building over the West behind the departing storm and ahead of an elongating trough of low pressure extending southwestward from Alaska to the south of the Aleutian Islands. Clear skies tonight, light winds, and fresh snow will create ideal conditions for subzero temperatures in town, below our average of four degrees.
Dry air under the ridge will make for a beautiful three days to close out 2025, with temperatures warming into the upper-twenties on Monday. Weather forecast models often overestimate the amount of warming after snowy intrusions of arctic air, as the low sun angle and highly reflective snow surface minimize daytime heating. But if the models are to be believed, we could see upper thirties on Tuesday and back to the low forties by Wednesday, well above our average of twenty-eight degrees, with continued mostly sunny daytime skies.
Meanwhile, waves of cold air moving southwestward from Alaska and eastward from Siberia will shift the Aleutian trough eastward into the Gulf of Alaska, forcing further elongation to the south. Additionally, the southern part of the current storm, left behind to our southwest, will merge with a wave moving southwestward over Nevada and form an eddy off the coast of southern California by Monday, ingesting subtropical moisture as it vacations there for a few days.
Eventually, the moist and warm eddy will be forced eastward by the original Aleutian trough now over the eastern Pacific, though how the trough evolves and how it interacts with the eddy are uncertain. Most weather forecast models force the weakening eddy across the Desert Southwest around midweek, bringing increasing clouds on New Year’s Day and precipitation chances by the evening.
Snow levels will rise with the warm temperatures, eventually reaching about 7,500′ by Thursday afternoon, so any precipitation will probably be liquid in town and modest on the hill. What happens behind that will depend upon the evolution of the eastern Pacific trough, with some models bringing a portion of that trough over our area later in the weekend. If that occurs, pleasant weather is expected for most of the first weekend of 2026, followed by unsettled weather to start the next workweek.
Enjoy the results of the game-changing weekend storm at the Steamboat Ski Resort this week, and I’ll have more details on expected snowfall amounts by Friday and the weekend outlook in my next regularly scheduled weather narrative on Thursday afternoon.
Winter to reappear this weekend after high temperature records shattered
Thursday, December 25, 2025
The sun is peeking out this Christmas Day at noon in Steamboat Springs after a morning of rain showers in town with temperatures in the low forties, and snow showers at the top of the Steamboat Ski Resort with temperatures near freezing. After record-high temperatures were set in town this past week, winter reappears for the weekend, with significant snowfall occurring on the hill and some in town. Expect much colder temperatures, reaching below zero by Monday morning at all elevations.
Before we get to snowfall guesses, high temperatures between Sunday and Wednesday afternoons in town shattered two records and tied two others since 1893. Sunday afternoon saw a high of 46 F, tied for the second warmest with 2020, 1980, and 1936, short of the 55 F record set in 1921.
Monday saw an incredible high temperature of 59 F, shattering the previous record of 47 F by twelve degrees, set in 1971.
Tuesday’s high temperature of 52 F was the second warmest for the date, shy of the 58 F record set in 1955.
The official observations for the Steamboat Springs weather station behind the high school have not been published yet for Wednesday, but the 50 F record set in 2016 was certainly broken.
Now that those obscene Christmas-time temperatures are behind us, we can look forward to winter’s return this weekend. The ridge of high pressure over the Rocky Mountains, which caused the record warmth this past week, has been forced eastward by energy ejected from a deep trough of low pressure just off the West Coast, itself downstream of a persistent ridge of high pressure near the Dateline.
The ejected energy carried copious subtropical moisture, leaving over two feet of snow in the high Sierras and bringing the showers this morning. A wave of cold air from Siberia has topped the Dateline ridge, with some dropping into the West Coast trough and some moving eastward, ingesting additional cold air from western Canada.
While some snowfall has been predicted by the weather forecast models all week, the amount of snow and cold air has been uncertain, as it depends upon the partitioning of the Siberian energy. The models have settled on an encouraging solution, having enough energy moving into the trough to keep it moving, and having enough energy moving across the Pacific Northwest to ingest additional cold air.
The result is that both the West Coast trough and the Pacific Northwest wave will move into the Great Basin on Saturday, creating an overrunning event where warm and moist air in southwest flow moves over the top of cold air.
The initial cold front should move through our area Saturday morning, and depending on its arrival, could leave 1-4” of snow for the mid-mountain report. Snowfall should continue as cold air continues to filter into the region, leaving another 4-8” at mid-mountain by sunset. Temperatures will be falling most of the day, reaching around freezing in town by sunset and upper teens at the top of the resort.
Cold air will continue to move into our area through Sunday morning, under favorable moist and unstable northwest flow, keeping snow showers going until noon. Another 2-5” of snow overnight Saturday could yield a 6-13” Sunday morning mid-mountain report, with an additional 1-4” possible by around noon as the storm ends.
High temperatures will fall into the low twenties in town, finally below our average of 28 F, and the single digits at the top of the resort on Sunday. If skies clear Sunday night, we could see subzero temperatures at all elevations by Monday morning, below our average of 4 F in town.
A ridge of high pressure is then forecast to build over the West next week, providing a nice end to 2025, but more precipitation is forecast for around the start of the New Year. Enjoy our late-arriving Christmas present this weekend, and I’ll have more details on the end-of-week storm in my next regularly scheduled weather narrative on a cold Sunday afternoon.
Temperatures to warm ahead of Christmas moisture
Sunday, December 21, 2025
A mix of clouds and sun is over Steamboat Springs this Sunday at noon, with temperatures near forty degrees in town and freezing near the top of the Steamboat Ski Resort. After three and a half inches of snowfall on the hill Saturday and another half inch overnight, precipitation chances disappear until Christmas as temperatures warm under mostly sunny skies, not a good start to astronomical winter, which began at 8:03 am.
Our weather until Christmas will be dominated by a ridge of high pressure building over the central U.S., downstream of a developing trough of low pressure extending southward from the Gulf of Alaska. After a possible shower tonight, winds will turn to be from the southwest ahead of the deepening trough, bringing warm and dry air overhead with breezy afternoon winds.
We should see mostly sunny skies through Tuesday, with high temperatures in town in the forties, well above our twenty-nine-degree average, and low temperatures in the twenties, also well above our average of five degrees.
Cold air moving eastward from Siberia will round a persistent ridge of high pressure near the Dateline, and strengthen the trough while moving at least a portion of it eastward. Weather forecast models have struggled not only with this eastward motion and whether an eddy eventually forms on its southern end, but also with how much cold air moves into the trough and how much continues eastward.
Current forecasts have a leading piece of energy ejecting out of the storm, crossing the West Coast Tuesday night, and bringing increasing clouds to our area on Wednesday. Showers may wait until Christmas Day, which is good, as the warm origin of the moisture means snow levels peak near 10,000′ on Wednesday night.
While showers are possible on Christmas Day, frozen precipitation will only reach the mid-mountain elevation, with temperatures not cooling enough to bring snowflakes to town until Friday. Precipitation amounts currently look to be quite modest, but there is still time for the forecast to change. Enjoy the nice prelude to the Christmas holiday, and I’ll have more details on what to expect for the coming weekend in my next regularly scheduled weather narrative on Thursday afternoon.
