Warming and drying to follow some snow this evening
Thursday, February 20, 2025
Temperatures are in the mid-thirties in Steamboat Springs and the mid-twenties near the top of the Steamboat Ski Resort under mostly cloudy skies with peeks of sun this Thursday at noon. An approaching storm will bring some snow to our area later this afternoon and evening, but will be over by Saturday as temperatures warm under mostly sunny skies. Some clouds return Saturday night and Sunday ahead of a weak grazing storm for Monday.
In addition to the 20” of snowfall at mid-mountain and 29” up top collated in Sunday’s weather narrative, another 19” at mid-mountain and 23” up top accumulated through the workweek as of this morning, boosting the upper-mountain base to 108”.
The final storm in this series that started almost two weeks ago has been difficult to forecast, with even the shortest-range weather forecast models still changing. The storm is trending further south, which diminishes the snowfall forecast for our area for the storm’s beginning, and stronger, which diminishes the snowfall forecast for the storm’s end. The storm, in east-central Utah, is forecast to briefly strengthen and form an eddy that moves across central Colorado tonight. The trend further south will limit the energy that moves overhead late this afternoon and this evening, while air moving counter-clockwise around the eddy will bring winds from the east, limiting precipitation after midnight.
So now I expect only 3-6” to be reported by the Friday morning mid-mountain report, with the best snowfall between late this afternoon and midnight. I would not be surprised if the storm under or over-achieves, depending upon its final track and strength, so check the mid-mountain powdercam and the upper-mountain powdercam, or better yet, simply set your SnowAlarm. There may be some flurries to start Friday, but a weakening ridge of high pressure is forecast to move through our area from later Friday through midday Saturday bringing periods of sun and high temperatures around freezing on Friday and several degrees below our average of 37 F on Saturday.
Even as a weak and splitting wave crosses the West Coast Friday night and moves around our area starting later Saturday, bringing some clouds for Saturday night and Sunday, temperatures are expected to reach the upper-thirties on Sunday and low-forties on Monday.
A weak wave in the northward-migrating jet stream may bring some high-elevation snow flurries on Monday, with uncertainty high for a possible quick-moving midweek storm in our favorable northwest flow.
Let’s hope the incoming storm is more productive than forecast, and check back to my next regularly scheduled weather narrative on Sunday afternoon for more details on the possible midweek storm.
Another round of significant snow to fall through at least midweek
Sunday, February 16, 2025
Temperatures are in the low twenties with an occasional flurry this Sunday at noon in Steamboat Springs and the mid-teens near the top of the Steamboat Ski Resort with occasional light snow. Several Pacific waves of energy in moist and favorable winds from the northwest and west will restart the snow machine by this afternoon with significant accumulations expected through Wednesday morning. There may be another storm for Thursday behind a short break later Wednesday.
Snowfall from the just-ended event arrived in time for the Friday morning ski report as expected, with mid-mountain reporting twenty inches through this morning, and twenty-nine inches at the summit. Snowfall during the day Friday ended up being lower than forecast due to moisture in the atmospheric river being spottier than predicted. The three days of accumulation over the Yampa-White-Little Snake River Basin encompassing north-central Colorado contained 1.7” of liquid water that brought the season total to 14”, 95% of the 14.7” 30-year average.
Our next storm currently bringing precipitation to the Pacific Northwest has started some light snow showers, which should become moderate to heavy by sunset as the first piece of energy ejecting from the storm moves overhead. The storm will generally be warm, like the last one, with some cool air arriving behind the storm Tuesday night when snowfall will be tapering off.
Due to the storm traversing between a vortex of frigid air now centered in southern Manitoba and the warm air in the Desert Southwest, expect winds around 25 mph with gusts approaching 50 mph tonight. Another wave ejecting from the parent storm will keep snowfall going during the day, and though winds will decrease a bit Monday morning, they will pick up again through the day peaking at around 30 mph with gusts twice that by noon.
I would expect 6-12” at mid-mountain by the Monday morning report, with snowfall continuing through the day and overnight for another 6-12” by Tuesday morning as what is left of the parent storm moves through Colorado. Winds will thankfully decrease on Tuesday, though remain brisk with gusts as high as 40 mph by the end of the day.
Snowfall should be tapering off after noon on Tuesday, though with cool air arriving Tuesday night thanks to the Manitoba vortex sinking south and stretching westward, there may be enough moisture behind the storm for a round of lower-density snow for Wednesday. While the weather forecast models are generally unexcited about that prospect, keep an eye on the mid-mountain powdercam and the summit powdercam for the possibility of 4-8” of fluffier snowfall by Wednesday morning.
Meanwhile, a piece of energy will eject out of a large storm near the Aleutian Islands early Tuesday and split as it crosses the Pacific Northwest coast on Wednesday. While we should see at least a short break in the snowfall starting Wednesday afternoon, it is unclear if we will see possibly significant snow for Thursday.
Regardless, it appears our active stretch of weather will end for a time as the jet stream lifts northward by Friday. So enjoy another snowy workweek, and check back to my next regularly scheduled weather narrative on Thursday afternoon, unless significant changes to the splitting storm demand an update on Wednesday.
Wall of water to arrive tonight
Thursday, February 13, 2025
Temperatures have warmed into the mid-single digits at all elevations in Steamboat Springs under mostly sunny skies this Thursday at noon. A storm and its associated atmospheric river currently pounding the Sierras will begin snows this evening and deliver between twenty and thirty inches of snow at mid-mountain at the Steamboat Ski Resort by Saturday evening, with difficult travel over Rabbit Ears Pass likely. Another storm quickly follows bringing another round of significant snow between Sunday afternoon and Tuesday.
Before getting to the forecast, I’d like to review the astounding 15” of snow reported at mid-mountain Wednesday morning despite only 7” at the top. The storm was heavily banded, which can create localized areas of high snowfall, as evidenced by the Rabbit Ears Snotel at a similar elevation to mid-mountain measuring about six inches of snowfall.
Additionally, that snowfall at the Steamboat Ski Resort was maximized around mid-mountain was likely due to perfect snowflake-making temperatures and the loss of moisture above that elevation, as shown by the accompanying three-day time series of temperature and relative humidity at Storm Peak Lab. Note the relative humidity decreased soon after 6 pm MST on Tuesday as the red temperature line diverged from the blue dew point line near the center of the chart, shutting down the snowfall at that elevation but allowing it to continue at mid-mountain.
Thankfully the subzero temperatures that followed the storm, including a low of -12 F Wednesday morning at the top of the hill and a high of only -6 F, are being moderated by an approaching storm containing an atmospheric river as winds shift to the southwest and carry much warmer air overhead. Snowflakes should begin to fall early in the evening and become moderate to heavy by midnight as abundant moisture combines with strong storm forcing to overcome the unfavorable southwest winds. I expect 5-10” of accumulation for the Friday morning mid-mountain report.
Winds will shift to be first from the west early in the day as the storm center moves overhead and then the northwest later in the day behind the storm center. Most of the storm energy is lost by later Friday as the storm moves overhead, after leaving 6-12” by sunset, but that should be compensated for by the favorable most and unstable northwest flow, which should bring 4-8” overnight for a 10-20” Saturday morning report and another 4-8” during the day Saturday. Travel may be difficult over Rabbit Ears Pass from Thursday evening through most of Saturday under the heavier showers.
While we will see a break in the big accumulations, we might not see a break in light snowfall or flurries Saturday night into a chilly Sunday morning before another storm brings moderate to heavy snows back to our area from Sunday afternoon into Tuesday, with early estimates in the 10-20” range.
So enjoy what will almost certainly be a snowy Washington’s Birthday long weekend, and check back to my next regularly scheduled weather narrative on Sunday afternoon for more details on our next storm.
Nice weather on Monday to precede a cold storm later Tuesday and Wednesday
Sunday, February 9, 2025
Skies have cleared this Sunday mid-afternoon in Steamboat Springs with temperatures in the upper twenties in town and upper single digits at the top of the Steamboat Ski Resort. A mostly sunny Monday will precede a mostly cloudy Tuesday ahead of a couple waves of frigid air from the north bringing snow for Wednesday. Thursday morning will see the coldest temperatures of the week ahead of increasing temperatures and moisture starting Friday.
After 10” at mid-mountain at the Steamboat Ski Resort Saturday morning, and 13” up top, the small storm last night delivered an additional 5” of fluff at mid-mountain and 8” up top thanks to ideal snowflake-forming temperatures, cold winds from our favorable northwest direction and jet stream energy.
An expansive vortex of cold air currently sits over most of Canada, a sharp ridge of high pressure extends south from Alaska, and a strong storm just to its west is evolving near the Aleutian Islands. A wave of energy that traveled over the ridge has mixed with frigid air from western Canada, with another such wave quickly following.
These waves will bring a couple of surges of arctic air through our area later Tuesday and Wednesday along with fluffy snow that will likely accumulate fastest on Tuesday night, and may or may not continue through Wednesday night. Snowfall accounts for the entire storm are currently modest, with model blends predicting around six inches, but amounts could be inflated by the fluffy snow, as they were last night. My guess would be 2-5” by the Wednesday morning report with another 2-5” possible on a cold Thursday morning, with low temperatures in town dropping to the minus single digits, and perhaps minus teens if skies clear before sunrise, well below our average of 7 F.
Ahead of that, Monday looks quite nice with mostly sunny skies and high temperatures in the twenties, around five degrees below our average of 33 F, A mostly cloudy Tuesday could keep high temperatures several degrees cooler before the first arctic front begins light snowfall as early as Tuesday afternoon and drops temperatures.
Meanwhile, the Aleutian storm is forecast to shed a wave of energy incorporating some tropical moisture in an atmospheric river on Tuesday before it travels through the ridge of high pressure on Wednesday. Additionally, cold air from western Canada will also slide further west across Alaska, severing the ridge of high pressure and forcing a pattern change in the jet stream. This will not only push the arctic air northward and away from our area, but will also allow the atmospheric river to impinge on California on Thursday and approach our area on Friday.
We could see several days of dense snowfall from this arrangement, but there could still be changes in the forecast this week. So enjoy a nice Monday and the wintry weather that follows, and check back for my next regularly scheduled weather narrative on Thursday afternoon where I’ll have more details on the incoming atmospheric river for next weekend.
Cold front to bring snow Friday night
Thursday, February 6, 2025
Temperatures are in the upper thirties in Steamboat Springs and the mid-twenties near the top of the Steamboat Ski Resort under mostly sunny skies late this Thursday morning. The warm temperatures this week will persist through Friday ahead of a cold front Friday evening bringing another round of windy conditions Friday afternoon, snow Friday night, and seasonable temperatures for the rest of the weekend.
The small storm that was possible in my last weather narrative did not materialize as there turned out to be only enough moisture for some clouds. So we are left with a mostly sunny day with high temperatures reaching the forties, well above our average of 32 F. In fact, this whole workweek has been delightfully warm after our record cold temperatures two weeks ago, with both Monday and Tuesday breaking average temperature records for the date thanks to overnight lows well above our average of 6 F. The daily average temperature, calculated by averaging the high and low temperature for the day, was 41.5 F on Monday, breaking the 2018 record by three degrees, and 38.5 on Tuesday, breaking the 1953 record by two degrees. As warm as it felt, the high temperature on Monday was 53 F, shy of the 56 F record set in 1930, while the Tuesday high of 47 F was ten degrees cooler than the 57 F record set in 1934.
A storm previously off the coast of Vancouver has elongated to the southwest as it moved southward off the Pacific Northwest coast this week. A wave of energy and cold air moving around a building ridge of high pressure extending south from Alaska will dislodge the bulk of the storm eastward, bringing first clouds and wind during the day Friday ahead of a cold front Friday evening.
On another warm Friday, mountaintop winds could reach 60 mph from the west-southwest Friday afternoon, perhaps causing some lift issues similar to Wednesday. There may be some high-elevation snow showers ahead of the front, but moderate to sometimes heavy snows should occur along and behind the cold Friday evening and overnight under diminishing winds.
Cold air, with mountaintop temperatures falling to the low single digits and winds shifting to our favorable northwest direction, should allow 6-12” of snow to accumulate at mid-mountain by the Saturday morning ski report, and perhaps create periods of difficult overnight travel over Rabbit Ears Pass.
High temperatures in town look to fall from the forties on Friday into the twenties on Saturday, with low temperatures heading back down to single digits by Sunday morning. After some clearing on Saturday, another much smaller piece of the Pacific Northwest storm may bring some snow showers overnight, with perhaps 1-4” possible by the Sunday morning report.
There may be some clearing on Sunday, but cool and unsettled weather looks to persist into the workweek as a wave of energy from eastern Siberia moves over the Alaskan ridge of high pressure, encouraging cold air from a vortex of low pressure over Hudson Bay to move southwestward across the Canadian Plains and toward our area. So enjoy the gorgeous day today, be prepared for a return to wintry conditions this weekend, and check back to my next regularly scheduled weather narrative on Sunday afternoon for more details on the continued wintry weather.
