Dry and hot ahead of increasing moisture starting Thursday
Sunday, August 10, 2025
Partly sunny skies with comfortable temperatures in the mid-seventies are over Steamboat Springs this Sunday mid-afternoon. The smoke plume from the Lee fire, mapped at over 106,000 acres and six percent contained, and the Elk fire, mapped at over 14,000 acres and nine percent contained, was pushed to our south along the I-70 corridor by a couple of cool fronts on Friday and Saturday nights. It should stay to our south for at least a couple of days as temperatures rise into the upper eighties by Tuesday, with hot temperatures persisting through much of the workweek. Some monsoonal moisture is forecast to begin moving overhead starting Thursday, peaking by Saturday, with chances for meaningful moisture reaching the ground uncertain but likely on the low side.
An area of low pressure extends southwestward from the southern shores of Hudson Bay to the Desert Southwest, while an area of high pressure sits off the west coast of North America. Cool air from western Canada was brought into our area by northwesterly winds this weekend, bringing the comfortable temperatures associated with our first northwesterly cool fronts of the season, and pushing the smoke plume from the wildfires near Meeker to our south.
Clearing skies tonight should bring chilly overnight temperatures in the upper-thirties to town by Monday morning, below the forty-five degree average, especially in the favored low-lying areas of the Yampa Valley. High temperatures are forecast to rise to around our eighty-two-degree average on Monday with mostly sunny skies, as high pressure begins to build over the West behind the departing trough.
Even warmer temperatures in the upper eighties are forecast for Tuesday, with wildfire smoke forecast to stay away on both Monday and Tuesday as winds retain a northerly component. Temperatures are forecast to approach ninety degrees on Wednesday and Thursday as the ridge moves eastward, bringing westerly breezes that make the smoke forecast uncertain. Check the NOAA Smoke model forecast, run four times a day, for the latest forecast smoke plume trajectories.
Meanwhile, a wave of energy ejects from an area of low pressure in the central Pacific, mixes with some cool air north of the Bering Straight, and develops into a new area of low pressure off the west coast of North America by midweek. Winds ahead of the low pressure and behind a building ridge of high pressure over the Southeast will encourage moisture from the Mexican Plateau to move northward, bringing a weak monsoonal surge of moisture to our area that begins Thursday and peaks Saturday.
So thunderstorm chances begin by Thursday afternoon, with the best chance of wetting rains holding off until later Saturday. Unfortunately, even then, storms are most likely to produce more wind than rain, a depressing forecast for controlling the wildfires near Meeker.
Enjoy the cooler temperatures today and Monday, hoping the firefighters can take advantage of the opportunity to achieve greater containment of the Meeker wildfires. I’ll have more details on the coming monsoonal surge of moisture in my next regularly scheduled weather narrative on Thursday afternoon.
Dry cool front to arrive Friday evening
Thursday, August 7, 2025
Temperatures are in the upper eighties this Thursday mid-afternoon in Steamboat Springs, with gusty winds from the southwest carrying smoke from the Elk and Lee wildfires, discovered Saturday near Meeker, through the area. The southern end of a storm rotating through the Northern Rockies will drag a cool front through our area Friday evening, but not before bringing an even windier day on Friday. Low eighty-degree temperatures and decreasing wind are forecast for the weekend, with air quality uncertain.
Unsurprisingly, the Meeker fires have exploded today, with the Lee fire mapped at 45,000 acres and the Elk fire at 14,000 acres as of noon. The newly formed Twelve wildfire, discovered yesterday just east of Dinosaur National Monument, is over 4,000 acres and will be a potential smoke source for our area if winds are from the west.
The winds are the result of air accelerating between an area of low pressure rotating through the Northern Rockies and an area of high pressure extending westward from Texas across the Desert Southwest. Unfortunately, even stronger winds, still from the southwest, are forecast for Friday as the northern storm moves over the Continental Divide. Clouds ahead of a grazing cool front Friday evening may keep our high temperatures several degrees cooler than today, in the mid-eighties, just above our average of eighty-three degrees.
Winds should briefly turn to northwesterly or northerly behind the front, at least temporarily clearing smoke from the area, according to the NOAA Smoke Plume model, which is run four times a day for forty-eight hours. High temperatures in the low eighties will be accompanied by much lighter winds on Saturday, with trailing energy behind the storm bringing afternoon clouds and a secondary cool front later in the day or evening, keeping Sunday’s high temperatures in the low eighties.
Ordinarily, a pleasant weekend weather forecast, though the air quality is uncertain. Check the NOAA Smoke Plume model before your outdoor activities, as well as the Purple Air widget on the SnowAlarm homepage.
Unfortunately, high temperatures are forecast to return to the upper-eighties by Tuesday as a ridge of high pressure builds over the West behind the departing storm. Some monsoonal moisture may be carried overhead after midweek, though the weather forecast models are not very convincing at this point. Enjoy the cooler weekend, hope the smoke stays away, and I’ll have more details about a possible push of monsoonal moisture in my next regularly scheduled weather narrative on Sunday afternoon.
Hot and dry weather to return for the workweek
Sunday, August 3, 2025
After a crisp morning with low temperatures that approached forty degrees, bluebird skies are over Steamboat Springs late this Sunday morning with temperatures only around seventy degrees, on their way to the low eighties. The comfortable temperatures today will give way to hot temperatures approaching ninety degrees for the workweek, breezy afternoon winds, periods of smoke, and near-nil precipitation chances.
I was surprised to wake up Saturday morning to the rumble of thunder, portending a more active day of weather than forecast. Rather than one weak wave on Friday, another disturbance on Saturday kept winds moving from the west-southwest, and combined with existing moisture to bring several rounds of thunderstorms that continued until sunset.
But the moisture has cleared in the dry west-northwest winds behind the disturbance, leaving a gorgeous Sunday with high temperatures forecast to approach our now-declining average of eighty-three degrees. Winds will shift to be from the southwest as an area of low pressure extending southward from a storm in the Gulf of Alaska is forced eastward by a new storm in the Bering Sea. The southern part of the low pressure, now crossing the West Coast, will be deflected northeastward by a building ridge of high pressure over the Desert Southwest.
Stronger winds associated with the pressure difference between the low pressure to our northwest and high pressure to our south will be mixed downward in the afternoons by high temperatures rising into the upper eighties starting Monday and lasting through the workweek.
Unfortunately, the NOAA Smoke Plume model shows the southwest winds carrying smoke from the Monroe Canyon wildfire in Utah, the Bravo Dragon wildfire in Grand Canyon National Park, and now, the newly formed Gifford Fire near the coast of southern California, over our area on Monday. The smoke model is run four times a day out to forty-eight hours, with future runs likely showing continued periods of smoke through the workweek.
We may see cooler temperatures around next weekend as the developing Gulf of Alaska storm moves inland, though the timing and strength of a possible cool front are uncertain at this time. Enjoy the first hot week of August, and I’ll have more details on the possible cool front next weekend in my next regularly scheduled weather narrative on Thursday afternoon.
Shower chances to decrease for the weekend with comfortable temperatures
Thursday, July 31, 2025
After reaching almost eighty degrees just after noon on this Thursday, the temperature near the base of the Steamboat Ski Resort fell fifteen degrees by 2 pm as a thunderstorm with brief moderate rain and pea-sized hail moved through. There may be some additional showers through this evening before drier air from the west brings comfortable temperatures and decreases thunderstorm chances for Friday and the weekend.
The monsoonal plume of moisture over our area the last two days will be severed and pushed east by a weak wave moving across the Great Basin, ejected from a storm in the Gulf of Alaska. Even though the sun has returned behind the early afternoon storm, there are good chances for an additional storm or two later this afternoon and evening ahead of winds shifting to the west and bringing much drier air overhead for the weekend.
This new weather regime will bring crisp overnight temperatures in the mid-forties, below our average of forty-seven degrees, and sunny mornings with high temperatures around our average of eighty-four degrees, quintessential Colorado mountain weather, replete with the chance for an afternoon or early evening thunderstorm on Friday and Saturday.
Even though winds over northern Colorado will be from the west, the NOAA Smoke Plume model has southwesterly winds over Utah, feeding smoke from the Monroe Canyon wildfire in central Utah and the Bravo Dragon wildfire in Grand Canyon National Park towards our area. Right now, a hazy start to both Saturday and Sunday is forecast, with gradually improving air quality by later Friday. These smoke forecasts are challenging, as they depend on both the forecast winds and forecast fire intensity, and it isn’t easy to get one right, much less both! The forecast is run four times a day, so check the latest iteration before your outdoor activities.
Although it doesn’t feel like it, our July precipitation of 1.66 inches was close to our average of 1.72 inches, largely due to the inch of rain we received the day before Independence Day. The rain today will count toward our 1.8” average in August, which, when combined with the June 1.58” average, marks the driest three-month period of the year.
The Gulf of Alaska storm is forecast to rotate toward the Canadian West Coast early in the workweek, pumping up a ridge of high pressure over the Rockies and sending our high temperatures back into the upper eighties. Enjoy the beautiful weekend ahead, hope the smoke stays away, and I’ll have more details on the hot and dry start to the workweek and the possibility of a weak plume of monsoonal moisture for midweek in my next regularly scheduled weather narrative on Sunday afternoon.
Some moisture possible midweek
Sunday, July 27, 2025
Temperatures are in the upper eighties with mostly sunny skies this Sunday mid-afternoon in Steamboat Springs. Even warmer temperatures, approaching ninety degrees, are forecast through the beginning of the workweek before monsoonal moisture appears on Wednesday and Thursday, reducing temperatures by a few degrees on Wednesday and more so on Thursday as a weakening Pacific storm grazes our area.
A ridge of high pressure is over the Southeast as a wave of low pressure traverses across the northern Canadian Plains. The ridge of high pressure will expand westward to start the workweek, bringing high temperatures approaching ninety degrees on Monday and Tuesday, around five degrees above our eighty-four-degree average.
Additionally, a weak area of low pressure associated with a storm in the Gulf of Alaska is approaching the California coast, making landfall by midweek. Southwesterly winds ahead of the low will conspire with southerly winds rotating clockwise around the high pressure to bring a weak, but hopefully moderate, surge of monsoonal moisture northward and over our area by midweek.
Unfortunately, the generally southwest wind over our area has transported smoke from the Dragon Bravo Fire in Grand Canyon National Park and now the Monroe Canyon fire in central Utah toward our area, leading to the hazy skies at times this weekend. That is expected to continue to start the workweek, according to the latest forecast from the NOAA Smoke model forecast, and may continue beyond the current two-day forecast window, which ends Tuesday morning. Check the model, which is run four times a day, for the latest smoke forecast for our area.
Wednesday and Thursday will be our best opportunity for showers from this surge of monsoonal moisture, though forecast rain amounts have steadily trended downward since I mentioned it in last Thursday’s weather narrative. Sadly, the duration of the event has also decreased, as the approaching Pacific storm turns our wind westerly and severs the monsoonal flow of moisture from the south by Friday. However, we will see cooler temperatures closer to average behind the passing Pacific disturbance on Thursday and Friday.
There is still time for the forecast to become wetter, despite the trends, if the Pacific disturbance arrives weaker than currently forecast. So let’s hope for a stronger monsoonal push more similar to the earlier forecasts, and check back Thursday afternoon for the latest details on the weekend weather.
