Hot and dry weather to be interrupted by a cool front on Tuesday
Sunday, June 15, 2025
After an eighty-five-degree high temperature yesterday at the Bob Adams airport in Steamboat Springs, temperatures are just shy of that this Sunday mid-afternoon under mostly sunny skies. After another hot and dry day on Monday, a cool front on Tuesday will bring cooler temperatures that will last through Wednesday, before even hotter weather follows for Thursday.
A persistent storm in the Gulf of Alaska anchors an area of low pressure extending southwestward toward the tropics while a ridge of high pressure sits over the Continental United States. The dry air and hot temperatures have been carried overhead by southwesterly winds ahead of the Gulf of Alaska storm and that will continue on Monday.
A piece of energy ejecting from the Gulf of Alaska storm will cross the West Coast on Monday, bringing a cool front to our area on Tuesday after traveling across the Great Basin. High temperatures will fall to around our seventy-seven-degree average, and the limited moisture associated with the front may allow for some clouds and even an afternoon or evening thunderstorm that would produce more wind than rain, as most precipitation evaporates in the dry lower atmosphere before reaching the ground.
A ridge of high pressure is then forecast to build behind the front starting Wednesday, for a mostly sunny day with continued comfortable high temperatures reaching the low-eighties.
By Thursday, the Gulf of Alaska storm is forecast to finally move toward the Pacific Northwest coast, building the ridge of high pressure and allowing high temperatures to soar toward our first ninety-degree day of the season under mostly sunny skies in the southwesterly breezes ahead of the storm.
This pattern continues into the weekend when the storm is forecast to cross the Pacific Northwest coast. Winds will increase substantially on Friday and Saturday as the storm approaches, increasing fire weather concerns over the West. With that in mind, I have again started posting the NOAA Smoke Plume Forecast, which is run four times a day out to 48 hours. This model shows that the occasional hazy skies over the last few days were from the France Canyon wildfire burning in southwestern Utah.
Enjoy the respite from the hot weather on Tuesday and Wednesday, and check back to my next regularly scheduled weather narrative on Thursday afternoon for an update to that ninety-degree weekend forecast.
Pattern shift to bring hot and dry weather for the weekend
Thursday, June 12, 2025
Temperatures reached eighty degrees this Thursday in Steamboat Springs under mostly sunny skies before a thunderstorm with pea-sized hail dropped temperatures into the low-sixties by early this afternoon, including a ten-degree drop in ten minutes. But the thunderstorms will disappear Friday and the weekend as temperatures soar into the upper-eighties by Sunday.
Ejecting energy from a persistent area of low pressure over the Gulf of Alaska has brought some Pacific moisture overhead these past few days. The low-pressure area is forecast to wobble around for the next week as pieces of Pacific energy and moisture crossing the Dateline are both absorbed, reinvigorating the storm, and slingshot around its southern end.
As one part of the storm briefly elongates along the West Coast through the weekend, winds turn southwesterly over the West, building a ridge of high pressure over the Rocky Mountains and bringing hot and dry air from the Desert Southwest overhead. Though we may see some more thunderstorms this afternoon and evening, dry weather is forecast for the weekend with temperatures reaching the mid-eighties on Friday and warming into the upper-eighties by Sunday, well above our average of 76 F.
The dry air and clear skies will allow nighttime temperatures to fall into the forties, a bit warmer than our average of almost forty degrees due to the hot air mass.
This weather pattern will continue into the coming workweek, with temperatures possibly reaching ninety degrees on Monday. Some of the Gulf of Alaska storm is forecast to move inland by Tuesday or Wednesday, eventually grazing our area with a cool front that will drop high temperatures into the low-eighties.
So enjoy the summery weekend - we are after all only a week away from the summer solstice next Friday, June 20th at 8:41 pm - and I’ll have more details on next week’s cool front in my next regularly scheduled weather narrative on Sunday afternoon.
Nice weather for the workweek with eighty degree temperatures starting Tuesday
Sunday, June 8, 2025
Temperatures reached seventy-seven degrees late this Sunday afternoon at the Bob Adams airport in Steamboat Springs. Nice weather is forecast for the workweek with temperatures rising into the low-eighties starting Tuesday and lasting through Thursday with only slight chances for afternoon and evening showers. Dry days with even warmer temperatures, possibly reaching into the upper eighties, are forecast for Friday and the weekend.
A deep vortex of low pressure is moving across Minnesota while energy ejects from an area of low pressure in the Gulf of Alaska. A ridge of high pressure over the Pacific Northwest will be weakened by the ejecting energy and follow the Minnesota low eastward. Our winds will turn from the northwest to the west, allowing temperatures to warm a degree or two on Monday and into the low eighties by Tuesday, above our average of seventy-five degrees.
The westerly flow will introduce a modicum of Pacific moisture, perhaps as early as Tuesday afternoon and evening, but more likely on Wednesday and Thursday, for only slight chances of afternoon and evening storms. Meanwhile, the Gulf of Alaska storm will move eastward toward the Pacific Northwest. Southwest winds ahead of the storm will force a ridge of high pressure to build over the Rocky Mountains by Friday bringing dry air from the Desert Southwest overhead and allowing temperatures to warm into the mid to upper-eighties.
So enjoy the nice weather ahead, and check back to my next regularly scheduled weather narrative on Thursday afternoon for more details on what is looking like a hot and dry weekend.
Likely shower chances to start the work week
Sunday, June 1, 2025
Temperatures hit 81 F Saturday afternoon and 80 degrees this Sunday around noon at the Bob Adams airport in Steamboat Springs. An approaching storm will bring likely shower chances to Colorado Monday afternoon and evening and will be followed by cooler temperatures that will last through the workweek. While shower chances decrease through midweek, they increase again on Thursday as another storm approaches.
A complicated weather pattern is over Western North America as moisture from the remnants of the first tropical storm of the eastern Pacific hurricane season, Alvin, is ingested by an eddy of low pressure over Baja. Additionally, a trough of low pressure moving across the Pacific Northwest is elongating to the southwest, forcing the Baja eddy eastward, even as the southern end of the trough splits and forms another eddy of low pressure just west of Baja.
The first eddy is forecast to move across the Desert Southwest through Monday night, cooling high temperatures a few degrees on Monday and making showers likely Monday afternoon and overnight. Additionally, the northern end of the trough will begin moving across the northern Rockies, sweeping a cool front through our area Monday evening and providing a focus for the showers.
Some dry air follows the cool front for Tuesday and Wednesday, reducing the chance of afternoon and evening showers. However, the trough over the Northern Rockies is not going anywhere as it is reinforced by additional waves of energy moving across the Pacific Northwest. One of these waves may or may not dislodge the second Baja eddy northeastward and toward Colorado, with the European ECMWF keeping the eddy offshore and the American GFS moving it across Colorado Wednesday night.
High temperatures will cool around ten degrees from this weekend by Tuesday, lasting through the work week and struggling to reach our average of 72 F.
Shower chances become likely again on Thursday, perhaps as soon as the morning if the eddy moves across Colorado. The cool and showery weather may hang around after Thursday as the Northern Rockies trough stays put thanks to additional energy moving across the Pacific Northwest.
I’d say to check back on Thursday afternoon for my next regularly scheduled weather narrative, but I’m still traveling and will post when I am able. If not already a subscriber, consider signing up for free to be emailed as soon as I publish.
A gorgeous weekend ahead to be followed by a stormy start to the workweek
Thursday, May 29, 2025
Mostly sunny skies and temperatures in the mid-sixties are over Steamboat Springs early this Thursday afternoon. Shower chances will linger for the rest of today and Friday before temperatures warm toward our first eighty-degree day of the season this weekend under mostly sunny skies. Wetter and cooler weather will start the new workweek.
Our area is under the influence of cool northwest flow around a circulation center extending southwestward across the Northern Plains, ahead of a ridge of high pressure centered over western Canada. Additionally, a storm is moving eastward across the Gulf of Alaska, and an eddy of low pressure that vacationed north of Hawaii this week is over northern Baja. Finally, Alvin, the first named tropical storm of the eastern Pacific hurricane season, which starts mid-May and is two weeks ahead of the Atlantic hurricane season, is moving northward off the Mexican coast towards Baja.
The ridge of high pressure will be pushed eastward this weekend by the advancing Gulf of Alaska storm, with some ejected energy moving through the ridge and continuing this afternoon’s chance of thunderstorms tomorrow as it grazes our area to the northeast after a mostly sunny morning. High temperatures will approach seventy-five degrees, about five degrees above average.
Gorgeous, mostly sunny weather is advertised for the weekend, with our first eighty-degree day of the season possible on Saturday, if not Sunday. Winds will shift from northwestly today and Friday, becoming quite light and variable for most of the weekend, before becoming southwesterly by Sunday afternoon.
This shift in winds will precede a stormy start to the workweek, with some showers possible later Sunday. The Gulf of Alaska storm is forecast to split as it approaches the West Coast mid-weekend, with the southern end of the split forcing the meandering Baja eddy northwestward across the Desert Southwest and toward our area.
While the eddy has been relatively dry, moisture streaming northward around Alvin will be drawn into the eddy, bringing likely chances of moderate to heavy rain to our area starting later Monday. The active weather may continue for a few days as the northern part of the split Gulf of Alaska storm follows on Tuesday, with perhaps the southern part of the split following on Wednesday.
So enjoy what should be a spectacular summer-like weekend. Normally, I’d say to check back on Sunday afternoon for my next regularly scheduled weather narrative, but I will be traveling starting Saturday, and will post when I am able. If not already a subscriber, consider signing up for free to be emailed as soon as I publish.
