Likely rain chances to start the Independence Day weekend
Thursday, July 3, 2025
Temperatures are near eighty degrees under partly sunny skies this Thursday mid-afternoon in Steamboat Springs. An approaching storm will combine with subtropical moisture to bring likely rain chances starting tonight that will linger through a cooler Independence Day. Mostly sunny skies and warming temperatures return starting Saturday for a beautiful end to the long holiday weekend that will last into the following workweek.
Southerly winds ahead of an area of low pressure moving through the Great Basin have drawn moisture pooling over the Mexican Plateau northward. The upward motion associated with the storm, combined with this moisture, brings likely chances for wetting rains starting this evening.
Thanks to the heating during the day, which cooks the atmosphere, we could see moderate to strong thunderstorms this evening with periods of heavy rainfall, small hail, and gusty winds. The thunderstorm threat diminishes overnight, but does not disappear, as rain showers might transition to a gentler and steadier rain.
A cool front associated with the storm will pass through early Independence Day morning, continuing shower chances through some of the morning. Refreshingly cooler high temperatures approaching eighty degrees may be accompanied by some afternoon sun and a renewed chance of afternoon and evening thunderstorms.
Much drier air invades our area behind the storm starting on a mostly sunny Saturday, with high temperatures right around our average of eighty-two degrees. The mid-eighties are forecast for a mostly sunny Sunday, with lots of sun and even warmer temperatures for the following workweek as a ridge of high pressure builds over the West.
The NOAA Smoke Plume model, which is run four times a day, is showing hazy skies on Saturday as smoke from the large Madrid wildfire in southern California, ignited just yesterday, is transported across the Great Basin by southwest winds. If the smoky skies materialize, they may persist for several days as clockwise winds rotate around the building high pressure system over the West.
So enjoy the rapidly improving Fourth of July weekend, hope for the needed moisture to start the long weekend, and check back to my next regularly scheduled weather narrative on Sunday afternoon for details on next week’s warmth.
