Monsoonal moisture will be close, but will it be close enough?
Sunday, July 20, 2025
Temperatures are at our average of eighty-four degrees with mostly sunny skies this Sunday mid-afternoon in Steamboat Springs, with similar temperatures expected through the workweek. While shower chances return Monday and last through the workweek, accumulating rain chances are marginal and will ultimately depend on how close we are to a plume of monsoonal moisture.
Dry air between an area of low pressure over Vancouver and high pressure centered over the Gulf of Mexico has temporarily interrupted our spotty flow of monsoon moisture since Thursday. Clockwise winds rotating around the high pressure will keep moist southwest flow near our area this week, with shower chances returning on Monday as some energy from a weakening eddy over southern Nevada mixes into the flow and encroaches on the dry air now overhead.
There may be better shower chances on Tuesday and Tuesday night if the eddy is absorbed into the southwest flow and passes overhead, but that will depend upon the ultimate track of the eddy, which is uncertain at this time.
Meanwhile, the Vancouver low pressure is forecast to elongate southward along the West Coast through Tuesday, eventually forming an eddy over northern California by midweek. The southwest winds ahead of the low pressure will carry dry air from well off the coast of California over the Great Basin, but our area should still be east of that dry air on Wednesday and Thursday for continued shower chances.
Current weather forecast models are not optimistic about accumulating rain over the four days of shower chances, but that could change depending on the track of moisture and energy in the southwest flow. But by Friday, Pacific energy moving through the Gulf of Alaska will expand the hot and dry weather over the Great Basin eastward, reducing shower chances and raising high temperatures towards ninety degrees by Saturday.
Enjoy the average summertime temperatures this week, hope for productive showers producing more rain than currently forecast, and check back to my next regularly scheduled weather narrative on Thursday afternoon for more details on the weekend’s weather.
Weekend to be a few degrees cooler with best shower chances on Friday
Thursday, July 17, 2025
After a mostly sunny morning in Steamboat Springs, temperatures have hit eighty-six degrees this Thursday mid-afternoon under partly sunny skies. Some approaching energy from Baja will conspire with Pacific energy to yield the best, but still modest, chance of showers this weekend on Friday, along with a few degrees of cooling that will persist through the weekend and into the following workweek.
A weak area of low pressure over Baja is forecast to move northward towards Nevada this weekend and interact with the jet stream moving across southern Canada. Some energy and moisture ejecting from the low will move northward before being forced eastward by the jet stream, and pass overhead later Friday. This will yield the best chance of afternoon, evening, and perhaps overnight showers of the weekend, along with slightly cooler temperatures around our average of eighty-four degrees, as the jet stream squashes the ridge of high pressure that brought the hot early-week temperatures.
The shower chances tomorrow are modest, and don’t even show up on the forty-eight-hour forecast for Steamboat Springs from the short-range HRRR weather forecast model, which I just added to the homepage, and can be found by clicking the ‘Precipitation Forecasts’ heading. Not only does the panel have forecasts for temperature, wind and precipitation, but also smoke. Because I host the charts on my server, I can add Previous forecast and Next forecast links to compare model iterations and determine model variability for our location.
Waves of energy rotating through the jet stream will keep the chance of showers around on Saturday and Sunday, with the classic sunny mornings giving way to some clouds by the afternoon.
The jet stream is forecast to sag southward along the West Coast to start the workweek, which may eject the low pressure over Nevada toward our area by midweek, increasing the chance of showers as monsoonal moisture from the south is ingested.
Unfortunately, there is no clear monsoonal signature behind the midweek event as high pressure over the Southeast migrates westward and severs any southerly connection to moisture.
So let’s hope for some rain on Friday, enjoy the cooler near-average temperatures of the weekend, and check back to my next regularly scheduled weather narrative on Sunday afternoon for any updates to our missing monsoon.
Hot temperatures to persist as the heart of summer arrives
Sunday, July 13, 2025
Temperatures are at eighty-five degrees, headed to the upper eighties, under mostly sunny skies this Sunday mid-afternoon in Steamboat Springs. The heart of summer arrives Monday and lasts into the first weekend of August, with the warmest average high temperature of the year reaching eighty-four degrees. The forecast high temperatures this week will not disappoint, despite a weak cool front arriving by Wednesday and cooling high temperatures by several degrees. Modest moisture associated with the front will result in limited shower chances from later Tuesday through Wednesday, with additional shower chances possibly arriving for the weekend.
A ridge of high pressure is centered over the Desert Southwest while a weak storm is moving southward along the British Columbia coast. The storm and some associated energy moving along its southern end will be deflected eastward by the ridge, bringing some Pacific moisture into our area starting later Tuesday, and several degrees of cooling on Wednesday.
The limited moisture and dry lower atmosphere mean any storm that develops will likely produce more wind than rain as precipitation evaporates in the dry subcloud layer. Storm chances decrease on Thursday before increasing again by Friday as a ridge of high pressure begins to build over the Southeast and elongate westward. This is a favorable pattern for the tardy North American Monsoon as moisture begins to rotate northward toward our area by Friday in the clockwise flow around the Southeast ridge.
We have been spared the smoke from several widlfires burning in north-central New Mexico and Arizona, including the White Sage fire north of the Grand Canyon, ignited by lightning last Wednesday. So far, the smoke has been trapped underneath the Desert Southwest ridge, but southwest winds ahead of the approaching cool front may transport some smoke into our area by Monday afternoon, according to the latest NOAA Smoke Plume model.
The smoke should clear as winds shift to be from the west and northwest on Tuesday and Wednesday, but may return later in the week if southerly flow associated with the monsoon is established. Let’s hope we can eke out some rain from later Tuesday through Wednesday, and I’ll have the latest details on the developing monsoon in my next regularly scheduled weather narrative on Thursday afternoon.
Hot weather to return Sunday
Thursday, July 10, 2025
Low seventy-degree temperatures, on their way to the low to mid-eighties, and cloudy skies are over Steamboat Springs late this Thursday morning. Meager shower chances are expected this afternoon, likely producing more wind than rain, and will be followed by another cool front on Friday, with even lower shower chances and similar temperatures. Dry weather is forecast for the weekend, with Saturday’s comfortable high temperatures rising to approach ninety degrees on Sunday.
The remnants of a small and weakening eddy are moving through the area, bringing cloudy skies and a cool front that will drop our ninety-degree high temperature yesterday to just below eighty-five degrees today, right around our average of eighty-three degrees. After this morning’s rumble of thunder, there will be another chance this afternoon of storms that would produce more wind than rain due to precipitation evaporating in the dry lower atmosphere.
Meanwhile, a wave moving through the Canadian Plains will drag another cool front through our area later Friday, keeping the comfortable high temperatures around and leading to another chance of afternoon and evening thunderstorms that will again produce more wind than rain.
A ridge of high pressure begins to build over the West Coast on Saturday behind the Canadian wave, bringing dry weather and high temperatures approaching ninety degrees on Sunday. This hot and dry weather will persist to start the workweek before we may see another grazing cool front by later Tuesday or Wednesday.
Enjoy the relatively cooler days to start the weekend, and check back Sunday afternoon for my regularly scheduled weather narrative for details on the next incoming cool front, which may kickstart a weak surge of monsoonal moisture that will hopefully be with us through the following weekend.
Increasingly hot and dry weather ahead of cool front to arrive Thursday
Sunday, July 6, 2025
A sunny and cool Sunday morning in Steamboat Springs follows over an inch of needed rain on Thursday night and Saturday afternoon. High temperatures will rise under mostly sunny skies from the mid-eighties today toward the ninety-degree mark on Wednesday before a couple of cool fronts arrive on Thursday and Friday.
After a relatively dry June when only 0.58” of precipitation fell, an inch shy of average, a well-advertised cool front this last Thursday night brought just over an inch of rain to town, right after the first ninety-degree day of the season was reached on Wednesday. The cooler temperatures on Independence Day inhibited further showers, but warmer temperatures on Saturday acted on the lingering moisture to produce another couple of tenths of an inch of rain from a strong thunderstorm that moved through just before 2 pm.
Aside from a small chance of an afternoon shower today, rain chances are near nil through midweek as a ridge of high pressure builds over the West ahead of an eddy of low pressure that formed off the coast of northern California. Mid-eighty-degree high temperatures are forecast for today and Monday, with upper eighties for Tuesday and another ninety-degree day likely on Wednesday.
Similar to last week, a storm rotating through the Gulf of Alaska and eventually the Pacific Northwest will drag the California eddy eastward, crossing the Great Basin late on Wednesday and bringing a cool front through our area on Thursday. However, unlike the last storm, there will be no moisture drawn northward from the Mexican Plateau, crimping the chance of showers when the front moves through.
High temperatures on Thursday will fall back to a degree or two above our average of eighty-three degrees with some westerly breezes. Another degree or two of cooling is advertised for Friday, with northwesterly breezes, as trailing energy behind the Pacific Northwest storm drags another cool front through our area by morning.
Enjoy the very summery start to the workweek and check back for my next regularly scheduled weather narrative on Thursday afternoon, where I’ll have the details on what is looking like a warm and dry weekend ahead.
