Arctic air mass to retreat starting Friday thanks to a moderate storm
Thursday, January 23, 2025
Temperatures are only near ten degrees in Steamboat Springs this Thursday at noon and minus three degrees near the top of the Steamboat Ski resort under cloudy skies with high-elevation flurries. An approaching storm will displace the unseasonably cold arctic air mass by Friday afternoon, bringing light to moderate snowfall that will last into Sunday.
It’s been quite the frigid week in Steamboat Springs, with one daily temperature record broken on Monday when the high temperature reached only five degrees, three degrees colder than the record set in 1937. But the cold was also unusually persistent, with the average high temperature of 6.5 degrees recorded over Monday and Tuesday breaking the 1924 record by two degrees, the 8.7 degrees recorded over Sunday, Monday and Tuesday breaking the 1937 record by two degrees, and the 8.7 degrees recorded between Saturday and Tuesday breaking the 11.5 degree record from 1984. While Tuesday morning was cold with -24 F recorded at the downtown weather station, we escaped the -34 F record, set in 1935, though the SnowAlarm weather station near the base of the ski area recorded a low of -29 F.
Meanwhile, a storm rounding a building ridge of high pressure in the Gulf of Alaska is forecast to split as it moves over the Pacific Northwest on Friday. A small ridge of high pressure will pass through our area ahead of the storm, bringing clearing skies by this afternoon or evening and allowing another round of subzero temperatures for Friday morning, below our average of five degrees.
The southern end of the split is forecast to eventually form an eddy off the northern California coast by Saturday, allowing first westerly and then southwesterly winds to warm the atmosphere. Additionally, some Pacific moisture will be brought overhead, overunning a stationary front in our proximity separating the warm air to our south from the arctic air still to our north.
Light snow showers should begin Friday afternoon, becoming moderate at times from Friday night through Saturday before tapering off through Saturday night into Sunday morning. We could see 2-5” of snow by the Saturday morning mid-mountain report, another 2-5” during the day and an additional 1-4” by the Sunday morning report
There is some uncertainty in the snow and temperature forecasts due to the eventual position of the stationary front, with a stronger push from the southwest nudging warmer temperatures and snow to the north. These stationary fronts also tend to waver as energy ejecting from the upstream eddy moves overhead, perhaps creating breaks in snowfall interspersed with heavier showers.
After meandering over northern California through the weekend, the eddy is forecast to move first south through the weekend, then east across the Desert Southwest, bringing desperately needed precipitation to the wildfire disaster ongoing in southern California on Sunday and Monday. We should see some nice and seasonable weather to end the weekend and start the next workweek, with high temperatures finally in the twenties, approaching the average of thirty degrees.
Enjoy the snow and warmer temperatures, and check back Sunday afternoon for my next regularly scheduled weather narrative where I’ll discuss how long we can expect the nice conditions to persist.
