A nice Friday to be followed by more snow starting Saturday afternoon
Thursday, January 2, 2025
Temperatures are finally above freezing this Thursday mid-afternoon in Steamboat Springs, and in the upper teens near the top of the Steamboat Ski Resort under cloudy skies. Some lingering upper-elevation snow showers will end this evening before being followed by a pleasant and mostly sunny Friday. But more snow is coming thanks to an approaching winter storm that begins Saturday afternoon and winds down Sunday night.
We received three inches of snow at mid-mountain and five inches up top as of today’s 5 am ski report, making yesterday’s update inappropriate. Sadly, the warming atmosphere overcame the favorable orographics, or terrain-based lifting, to invalidate some of the more bullish short-range models that prompted the update. One of these models is notorious for over-predicting snowfall, perhaps due to the internal physics that converts cloud water and ice into snow, though occasionally it gets the prediction right. The often-wrong-but-sometimes-right feature makes this forecaster’s job quite difficult as the precipitation range often increases as we get closer to an event.
That said, our next winter storm is moving through the Gulf of Alaska and should cross most of the West Coast later Friday. A ridge of high pressure will quickly build ahead of the storm and move through our area on Friday, bringing mostly sunny skies and high temperatures approaching forty degrees in town, well above the 28 F average.
Though the storm will split to some degree by Saturday morning, most of the storm will cross the Great Basin during the day Saturday before moving over Colorado Saturday night and into Kansas on Sunday. Snow showers should begin Saturday afternoon and become moderate to heavy later in the day and overnight. Unlike the storm last night, this one has plenty of cold air associated with it and we should transition to our favorable northwest flow Saturday night that will last through Sunday night.
We should see 6-12” of snow by the Sunday morning report, with some occurring Saturday afternoon. Snow showers will continue through the day Sunday and overnight, though diminish in coverage and intensity, with another 3-6” of snow which would be reported Monday morning.
High temperatures in town will fall back below average on a snowy Sunday, and stay there through much of the work week as another storm with colder air is forecast for Tuesday. However, uncertainty is high due to the strongly splitting nature of the next storm and its ultimate trajectory.
So enjoy the nice start to the weekend and the snow for the second half of the weekend, and check back for more details about the early week storm in my next regularly scheduled weather narrative on Sunday afternoon.
Quick update for more snow tonight
Wednesday, January 1, 2025
It’s cold and grey in Steamboat Springs on the first day of 2025 with temperatures at all elevations around ten degrees at noon, after low temperatures of -5 F in town and -1 F near the top of the Steamboat Ski Resort. This quick update addresses a stronger and closer wave for tonight than discussed in my last weather narrative on Sunday.
The remnants of an atmospheric river entering the Great Basin in our favorable northwest flow will graze north-central Colorado tonight and tomorrow. Snowfall should pick up around mid-evening, and I now expect 4-8” of snow at mid-mountain by the Thursday morning ski report, with another 2-5” during the day, some of which will fall between the report and the opening of the lifts.
The snowfall will be accompanied by gusty winds up to 40 mph from the west and northwest, which could make travel difficult at times over Rabbit Ears Pass and impact snow quality on the hill. Additionally, the atmosphere will slowly warm during the storm, often adversely affecting snowfall amounts and quality.
Currently, dry weather and warming temperatures are forecast for Friday and half of Saturday before snowfall begins again as early as Saturday afternoon and lasts through Monday. I’ll have more details on the weekend weather in my next regularly scheduled weather narrative on Thursday afternoon.
