Wintry storm to revisit later Friday through Saturday
Thursday, November 7, 2024
Sunny skies and cool temperatures in the mid to low-thirties are over Steamboat Springs this Thursday mid-afternoon. The storm from last Tuesday will revisit our area later Friday through Saturday before skies clear and temperatures warm on Sunday and Veterans Day.
The Election Day storm was about twelve hours faster than forecast in my last weather narrative on Sunday afternoon, and left between four and five inches of snow in town and ten inches at the Steamboat Ski Resort mid-mountain powdercam. After the coldest night of the season so far, with a low of 5 F at the Bob Adams airport and 2 F at the SnowAlarm weather station near the base of the ski area, around fifteen degrees below our average of 19 F, a beautiful cool and sunny day is over our area.
But that storm is not done with us yet, as it is currently an eddy cut off from the jet stream over the southern borders of Arizona and New Mexico. The storm is forecast to move eastward today before turning northward, traveling along the eastern Colorado border on Friday, and reaching the Nebrask-Colorado border by Saturday morning. While the eastern Colorado Plains will receive the heaviest snowfall, the storm’s track first brings easterly winds across the Park Range through tonight and early Friday before turning to be from the north later Friday and the northwest from Friday night into Saturday.
Moisture is forecast to wrap around the eddy, and if the storm is not too far east and similar to the current forecast, snow showers should begin Friday night and continue through the day Saturday in the favorable cool, moist and unstable northwest flow on the backside of the eddy. Another 3-6” could fall on the hill by Saturday afternoon with an inch or two in town.
Winds will turn to be from the west as the eddy moves into the upper MidWest on Sunday, bringing dry air and a beautiful day with temperatures warming into the upper forties, several degrees above our average of 45 F, and the warmest temperatures since the 61 F last Saturday.
The beautiful weather continues for Veterans Day before a storm currently moving across the Aleutian Islands may affect our area around Tuesday. Enjoy the wintry landscape this weekend, which is a marked change from the dry and warm weather a week ago, and tune in to my next regularly scheduled weather narrative on Sunday afternoon for more details on a possible Tuesday storm.
Cold start to the workweek gets even colder by midweek
Sunday, November 3, 2024
After a bit of snow this morning, temperatures are around forty degrees late this Sunday afternoon in Steamboat Springs under cloudy skies thanks to a large wintry storm system affecting the Rocky Mountains. Temperatures will only get colder through midweek with December-like temperatures advertised as a stronger storm follows the current storm, with snow tonight into Monday followed by more snow between Tuesday and Wednesday afternoons. There should be a break Thursday, though uncertainty looms large for the end of the workweek.
The weather has certainly changed quickly, with the upper-fifty-degree high temperatures yesterday representing mid-October rather than early November. And weather-whiplash is straight ahead as the high temperature on Wednesday is forecast to be only around thirty degrees, representing mid-December!
Two wintry storm systems are responsible; the first is a large and splitting trough of low pressure extending from the Yukon to Arizona and the second is a developing storm moving across the Aleutian Islands that is also forecast to split as it approaches the Rocky Mountains on Wednesday.
These splitting storms cause forecast headaches as small changes in the amount of energy proportioned between the northern and southern areas of the storm can cause large differences in the storm evolution. And if the southern portion of the storm forms an eddy cut off from the jet stream, as the current storm is doing and the next storm is forecast to do, the speed and track of the eddy are difficult to predict due to the lack of upper-level steering winds and upstream energy.
With that in mind, after the inch of snow at mid-mountain and two inches up top this morning, snows should pick up again this evening and last into Monday morning as cool air follows behind the northern part of the split storm. We could see some light winds from the east as the southern part of the storm is in the process of forming an eddy over New Mexico, but they should not be strong enough to squash precipitation, and we could see another 4-8” of snow near the top of the Steamboat Ski Resort and an inch or two in town by Monday morning. Be sure to check the latest movies of the Steamboat Powdercam and the Steamboat Mid-mountain Powdercam on the SnowAlarm home page for evidence.
Snow showers may stick around through the Monday in the favorable cool, moist and unstable northwest flow behind the storm, with high temperatures only in the upper-thirties, about ten degrees below our average of 49 F.
Earlier weather forecasts had a break on Tuesday, but that may be short-lived as the Aleutian Island storm moves quickly across the Gulf of Alaska and over Vancouver on Monday. It will mix with some arctic air from the Yukon as it moves over Idaho Monday night and northern Rockies on Tuesday. The storm will split Tuesday afternoon with the southern portion of the storm bringing a cold front through our area sometime around Tuesday evening accompanied by moderate to heavy snow showers.
Lighter snow showers should occur through the day Wednesday as the southern portion of the storm forms an eddy over the Four Corners by early Thursday. Between Tuesday and Wednesday afternoons, we could see another 5-10” of snow on the hill and 2-5” town. The cold day on Wednesday will be followed by a cold Thursday morning, with low temperatures forecast to be in the single digits, over ten degrees below our average of 19 F.
The eddy is forecast to travel eastward across the southern Colorado border on Friday before lifting to the northeast, and it is this northeastward movement that introduces forecast uncertainty for Friday and Saturday. We may see another round of likely light snows for Friday and Saturday if the storm is close enough, or cool but precipitation-free weather if it is further away.
So enjoy the wintry workweek ahead as a prelude to the opening of the Steamboat Ski Resort, which unbelievably is only three weeks away from yesterday, and I’ll have more details on the weather for next weekend in my next regularly scheduled weather narrative on Thursday afternoon.
Weekend to start nice and turn stormy
Thursday, October 31, 2024
Temperatures are only in the mid-forties under mostly sunny skies this Thursday mid-afternoon, but that is an improvement over yesterday’s mid-thirties! Mostly sunny skies with warming temperatures will start the weekend, but another wintry storm arriving Sunday brings more snow to all elevations.
By last Tuesday morning, two inches of snow fell at the mid-mountain Powdercam and five inches at the upper-mountain Powdercam until more dry air than forecast made it into our area and shut off the precipitation during the day. But the snows started again Tuesday night and continued through the afternoon Wednesday, with three inches on my deck near the base of the Steamboat Ski Resort, another four inches at mid-mountain and two inches up top.
The weather has cleared behind the storm, though we may see some clouds as sunset approaches thanks to a weak weather system moving across Wyoming.
Meanwhile, a wave moving across the Bering Sea is forecast to interact with a storm over Vancouver now bringing precipitation to the Pacific Northwest and become our next weather-maker. Mostly sunny skies will start the weekend with high temperatures warming a few degrees into the upper-forties on Friday, just below our average of 51 F. Saturday will reach into the mid-fifties before afternoon clouds encroach ahead of our next significant wintry storm starting Sunday.
The Pacific Northwest storm is forecast to elongate along the West Coast on Friday before moving across the Great Basin on Saturday. Weather forecast models have struggled with the southern extent of the storm and whether it would split and form a southern eddy for several days now, and it looks like the American GFS had an overall better forecast than the European ECMWF with a more coherent storm moving across Colorado on Sunday and Monday.
There will likely still be changes in the forecast as a subtle split is emerging in the latest model iterations, which would change the speed of the storm and the distribution of precipitation. But right now, precipitation should get going by noon on Sunday with rain showers and a rain-snow mix in town turning to snow by sunset, and all snow above Christie Peak.
Snowfall looks heaviest Sunday night, with lighter snowfall continuing through the day Monday. High temperatures will only reach the low forties on Sunday and the mid-thirties on Monday. We could see 2-5” in town by the end of the day Monday and 6-12” on the hill, with difficult travel at times over Rabbit Ears Pass.
A short break on Tuesday looks to be followed by another wintry storm starting Wednesday. So enjoy the pleasant start to the weekend, and check back to my next regularly scheduled weather narrative on Sunday afternoon for the latest details on the two wintry storms.
Wintry weather to begin Tuesday
Sunday, October 27, 2024
Though this Sunday morning started sunny, clouds are overspreading the Steamboat Springs area this noon ahead of a wintry storm beginning to affect the West Coast. Today will be the warmest day of the week with high temperatures once again in the mid-sixties before they fall toward sixty degrees on Monday along with breezy winds and a chance for some showers. But our warm and pleasant fall weather will abruptly end by Tuesday as a Pacific storm brings a strong cold front through Colorado. Significant snow at higher elevations and rain turning to snow in town will precede the coldest day of the season so far on Wednesday before the weather clears for the end of the workweek.
A strong Pacific storm currently extends southward along the British Columbia coast to northern California. Moisture from previous Tropical Storm Kristy, now well west of Baja, has been injected into the southwest winds ahead of the storm and is responsible for the invading clouds today. As has been the case the last several days, high temperatures will once again reach the mid-sixties, over ten degrees above our average of 53 F.
Recent weather forecast models have trended toward a chance of showers on Monday morning, though they will have to overcome a dry lower atmosphere so it is unclear whether rain will reach the surface. There may be some periods of sun and high temperatures are still expected to be above average and around sixty degrees.
But that will be the end of our pleasant fall weather, at least temporarily, as the Pacific storm crosses the West Coast Monday and moves into the Great Basin Tuesday. Precipitation should start Monday night, with the snow level starting near the top of the Steamboat Ski Resort and descending to town by Tuesday afternoon, and continue into Wednesday morning. We could see 6-12” of snow on the hill by Wednesday afternoon and 2-5” in town with high temperatures only in the thirties, with difficult travel at times over Rabbit Ears Pass after noon on Tuesday.
If skies clear behind the storm as forecast by Thursday morning, we will see the coldest temperatures of the season so far with lows forecast to be in the mid to lower-teens, almost ten degrees below our average of 22 F. The good news for the annual Halloween Stroll is plenty of sun Thursday with high temperatures warming into the forties. But temperatures will plummet as soon as the sun goes down so dress warmly under those costumes!
Another strong Pacific storm is forecast to cross the Pacific Northwest coast on Halloween, and weather forecast models disagree on whether and how much the storm splits, but there may be more weather coming our way near the end of next weekend or early the following week. Be sure to take advantage of the next two warm days and check back to my next regularly scheduled weather narrative on Thursday afternoon for more details on our next storm.
Another beautiful fall weekend ahead
Thursday, October 24, 2024
Skies have cleared with temperatures around fifty degrees this Thursday afternoon in Steamboat Springs after a quick shower passed through late this morning. After a chilly Friday morning, with a hard freeze likely, temperatures will warm into the mid-fifties on Friday and the mid to upper-sixties for the rest of the weekend and the start of the workweek. Some passing clouds may interrupt the mostly clear skies until Sunday when clouds thicken ahead of another wintry storm timed to begin Tuesday.
After a storm left around an inch of rain and a dusting of snow in town by Monday morning, and almost seven inches at the Steamboat Ski Resort, our nice fall weather returned by Tuesday with high temperatures almost ten degrees above our average of 56 F. A grazing cool front was responsible for the quick shower and breezy winds earlier today, and will keep our high temperatures slightly below average this afternoon.
A building ridge of high pressure behind the grazing front and ahead of another large and powerful storm developing in the Gulf of Alaska will lead to mostly sunny skies and warmer temperatures through the weekend. But the cool air and clear skies tonight will likely lead to the first hard freeze in the Yampa Valley Friday morning with temperatures forecast to be within several degrees of 20 F, a bit below our average of 24 F.
I was expecting that to occur on Tuesday morning in my last weather narrative, but the inch of rain Sunday night moistened the lower atmosphere and allowed fog to form as temperatures dropped on Monday night. Fog formation releases heat as the water vapor condenses and effectively stops further surface cooling, but that likely won’t happen tonight due to the much drier low levels of the atmosphere.
Plenty of sun Friday will allow high temperatures to recover toward sixty degrees after the chilly start to the day, with even more warming into the mid to upper-sixties starting Saturday and lasting into Monday.
Though we may see some passing clouds early Saturday thanks to a weak system deflected to our north by the western ridge, skies should turn mostly sunny for the rest of the day. While temperatures will stay warm on Sunday, clouds should reappear as the Gulf of Alaska storm approaches the West Coast.
Monday will be similarly warm but windier as the approaching storm moves into the Great Basin. That will be our last warm fall day for a while as an extended period of cool and wet weather is forecast to begin Tuesday, with snowfall forecast even in town. So enjoy another beautiful fall weekend, and check back for my next regularly scheduled weather narrative on Sunday afternoon for more details on our next wintry storm.
