Nice days Friday and Sunday will bookend some unsettled weather on Saturday
Thursday, November 14, 2024
A lovely day is over the Steamboat Springs area this Thursday mid-afternoon with sunny skies and temperatures near fifty degrees. Even warmer temperatures are forecast for Friday along with increasing winds from the southwest ahead of a cold front Friday night. Unsettled weather with minor snow accumulations on the hill will follow through Saturday night before the sun returns on a cool Sunday.
The snow forecast from last Sunday’s weather narrative was too optimistic as we saw only a half inch in town and two inches at mid-mountain at the Steamboat Ski Resort. The front came through around 5 pm Tuesday with a promising round of snow, but the forecast cool, moist and unstable northwest flow promised by even by the short-range weather forecast model ended up not nearly moist enough to sustain snowfall through the night. It’s always a bad sign when the moon appears soon after the front passes!
But we have a beautiful warm and sunny day today ahead of the next storm along the West Coast. It is forecast to move across Nevada on Friday and split, with the southern part forming an eddy of low pressure over southern Arizona by Sunday and the northern part dragging a cold front through our area Friday night.
Winds from the southwest ahead of the storm will bring even warmer temperatures on Friday, almost ten degrees above our average of 43 F. Moisture will increase as the front approaches with snow showers possible after midnight Friday. Winds will turn to be from the west behind the front, with snow showers possible during the day and into Saturday night, though accumulations are expected to be sparse with less than an inch in town and up to several inches on the hill. Be prepared for a raw day on Saturday with breezy winds and high temperatures only in the thirties.
Meanwhile, our next storm east of Kamchatka is forecast to ingest some cold Alaskan air as it moves into the Gulf of Alaska on Saturday and crosses the Pacific Northwest Coast Sunday night. We should see a mostly sunny Sunday ahead of that storm with continued below-average temperatures a degree or two warmer than Saturday.
Clouds will increase Monday as the storm approaches with snow showers breaking out as early as Monday afternoon. Colder air and continuing snow showers are forecast for Tuesday with clearing advertised for Wednesday. Though forecast snow amounts are modest at this time, that can certainly change, so be sure to check back to my next regularly scheduled weather narrative on Sunday afternoon for the latest details.
Nice days around a small storm Tuesday
Sunday, November 10, 2024
Temperatures are just breaking the freezing mark with nary a cloud in the sky this Sunday noon in Steamboat Springs. After almost a week of below-average temperatures and more clouds than not, sunny skies and warmer weather are on the way this workweek except for a quick-moving storm arriving by Tuesday afternoon.
The second visit yesterday from the storm that first affected our area on Tuesday left just under four inches of snow on my deck near the base of the ski area and seven inches at mid-mountain between Friday and Saturday afternoon, a bit better than forecast in my last weather narrative on Thursday afternoon.
This resulted from easterly winds carrying moisture around the storm eddy over northeast Colorado yesterday. While winds from that direction usually doom our precipitation chances due to the warming and drying resulting from winds downsloping off the Park Range, these eddies can sometimes produce good snowfall thanks to the dominant upward motion from the storm.
The weather forecast models did predict this, but they have been wrong in the past, in both directions, making these large storms that produce easterly winds overhead a vexing forecast challenge.
But that won’t be a problem for our next storm on Tuesday. Ahead of that, we should see sunny skies and temperatures warming into the forties today, around our average of 45 F and the warmest day in a week since the 61 F last Saturday.
Even warmer temperatures approaching fifty degrees under continued mostly sunny skies are forecast for Veterans Day ahead of a storm currently brewing in the Gulf of Alaska. That storm is forecast to cross the West Coast Monday night and bring a cold front through the area Tuesday afternoon. Temperatures will probably reach the mid-forties again under increasingly cloudy skies ahead of the front, with precipitation quickly changing to snow at the lower elevations as the front passes.
The bulk of the precipitation should fall between Tuesday afternoon and Wednesday morning along and behind the front in favorable cool, moist and unstable northwest flow, with 1-4” in town and 4-8” on the hill, with difficult travel at times over Rabbit Ears Pass under the heavier showers. There is some uncertainty regarding how cohesive the storm will be and its southern extent, but it should be over by Wednesday afternoon with high temperatures only in the mid-thirties despite some afternoon sun.
Winds shift to be from the west behind the storm, bringing mostly sunny skies and temperatures rebounding into the forties on Thursday and around fifty degrees on Friday. Another storm currently moving across the Aleutian Islands is forecast to split to some degree as it approaches the West Coast at the end of the workweek, leading to significant uncertainty about how the storm may or may not affect us next weekend or early next week.
So enjoy the sunny and warmer weather to start and end the workweek, hope for more snow than forecast from the Tuesday storm, and check back for more details about the weather for next weekend in my next regularly scheduled weather narrative on Thursday afternoon.
Wintry storm to revisit later Friday through Saturday
Thursday, November 7, 2024
Sunny skies and cool temperatures in the mid to low-thirties are over Steamboat Springs this Thursday mid-afternoon. The storm from last Tuesday will revisit our area later Friday through Saturday before skies clear and temperatures warm on Sunday and Veterans Day.
The Election Day storm was about twelve hours faster than forecast in my last weather narrative on Sunday afternoon, and left between four and five inches of snow in town and ten inches at the Steamboat Ski Resort mid-mountain powdercam. After the coldest night of the season so far, with a low of 5 F at the Bob Adams airport and 2 F at the SnowAlarm weather station near the base of the ski area, around fifteen degrees below our average of 19 F, a beautiful cool and sunny day is over our area.
But that storm is not done with us yet, as it is currently an eddy cut off from the jet stream over the southern borders of Arizona and New Mexico. The storm is forecast to move eastward today before turning northward, traveling along the eastern Colorado border on Friday, and reaching the Nebrask-Colorado border by Saturday morning. While the eastern Colorado Plains will receive the heaviest snowfall, the storm’s track first brings easterly winds across the Park Range through tonight and early Friday before turning to be from the north later Friday and the northwest from Friday night into Saturday.
Moisture is forecast to wrap around the eddy, and if the storm is not too far east and similar to the current forecast, snow showers should begin Friday night and continue through the day Saturday in the favorable cool, moist and unstable northwest flow on the backside of the eddy. Another 3-6” could fall on the hill by Saturday afternoon with an inch or two in town.
Winds will turn to be from the west as the eddy moves into the upper MidWest on Sunday, bringing dry air and a beautiful day with temperatures warming into the upper forties, several degrees above our average of 45 F, and the warmest temperatures since the 61 F last Saturday.
The beautiful weather continues for Veterans Day before a storm currently moving across the Aleutian Islands may affect our area around Tuesday. Enjoy the wintry landscape this weekend, which is a marked change from the dry and warm weather a week ago, and tune in to my next regularly scheduled weather narrative on Sunday afternoon for more details on a possible Tuesday storm.
Cold start to the workweek gets even colder by midweek
Sunday, November 3, 2024
After a bit of snow this morning, temperatures are around forty degrees late this Sunday afternoon in Steamboat Springs under cloudy skies thanks to a large wintry storm system affecting the Rocky Mountains. Temperatures will only get colder through midweek with December-like temperatures advertised as a stronger storm follows the current storm, with snow tonight into Monday followed by more snow between Tuesday and Wednesday afternoons. There should be a break Thursday, though uncertainty looms large for the end of the workweek.
The weather has certainly changed quickly, with the upper-fifty-degree high temperatures yesterday representing mid-October rather than early November. And weather-whiplash is straight ahead as the high temperature on Wednesday is forecast to be only around thirty degrees, representing mid-December!
Two wintry storm systems are responsible; the first is a large and splitting trough of low pressure extending from the Yukon to Arizona and the second is a developing storm moving across the Aleutian Islands that is also forecast to split as it approaches the Rocky Mountains on Wednesday.
These splitting storms cause forecast headaches as small changes in the amount of energy proportioned between the northern and southern areas of the storm can cause large differences in the storm evolution. And if the southern portion of the storm forms an eddy cut off from the jet stream, as the current storm is doing and the next storm is forecast to do, the speed and track of the eddy are difficult to predict due to the lack of upper-level steering winds and upstream energy.
With that in mind, after the inch of snow at mid-mountain and two inches up top this morning, snows should pick up again this evening and last into Monday morning as cool air follows behind the northern part of the split storm. We could see some light winds from the east as the southern part of the storm is in the process of forming an eddy over New Mexico, but they should not be strong enough to squash precipitation, and we could see another 4-8” of snow near the top of the Steamboat Ski Resort and an inch or two in town by Monday morning. Be sure to check the latest movies of the Steamboat Powdercam and the Steamboat Mid-mountain Powdercam on the SnowAlarm home page for evidence.
Snow showers may stick around through the Monday in the favorable cool, moist and unstable northwest flow behind the storm, with high temperatures only in the upper-thirties, about ten degrees below our average of 49 F.
Earlier weather forecasts had a break on Tuesday, but that may be short-lived as the Aleutian Island storm moves quickly across the Gulf of Alaska and over Vancouver on Monday. It will mix with some arctic air from the Yukon as it moves over Idaho Monday night and northern Rockies on Tuesday. The storm will split Tuesday afternoon with the southern portion of the storm bringing a cold front through our area sometime around Tuesday evening accompanied by moderate to heavy snow showers.
Lighter snow showers should occur through the day Wednesday as the southern portion of the storm forms an eddy over the Four Corners by early Thursday. Between Tuesday and Wednesday afternoons, we could see another 5-10” of snow on the hill and 2-5” town. The cold day on Wednesday will be followed by a cold Thursday morning, with low temperatures forecast to be in the single digits, over ten degrees below our average of 19 F.
The eddy is forecast to travel eastward across the southern Colorado border on Friday before lifting to the northeast, and it is this northeastward movement that introduces forecast uncertainty for Friday and Saturday. We may see another round of likely light snows for Friday and Saturday if the storm is close enough, or cool but precipitation-free weather if it is further away.
So enjoy the wintry workweek ahead as a prelude to the opening of the Steamboat Ski Resort, which unbelievably is only three weeks away from yesterday, and I’ll have more details on the weather for next weekend in my next regularly scheduled weather narrative on Thursday afternoon.
Weekend to start nice and turn stormy
Thursday, October 31, 2024
Temperatures are only in the mid-forties under mostly sunny skies this Thursday mid-afternoon, but that is an improvement over yesterday’s mid-thirties! Mostly sunny skies with warming temperatures will start the weekend, but another wintry storm arriving Sunday brings more snow to all elevations.
By last Tuesday morning, two inches of snow fell at the mid-mountain Powdercam and five inches at the upper-mountain Powdercam until more dry air than forecast made it into our area and shut off the precipitation during the day. But the snows started again Tuesday night and continued through the afternoon Wednesday, with three inches on my deck near the base of the Steamboat Ski Resort, another four inches at mid-mountain and two inches up top.
The weather has cleared behind the storm, though we may see some clouds as sunset approaches thanks to a weak weather system moving across Wyoming.
Meanwhile, a wave moving across the Bering Sea is forecast to interact with a storm over Vancouver now bringing precipitation to the Pacific Northwest and become our next weather-maker. Mostly sunny skies will start the weekend with high temperatures warming a few degrees into the upper-forties on Friday, just below our average of 51 F. Saturday will reach into the mid-fifties before afternoon clouds encroach ahead of our next significant wintry storm starting Sunday.
The Pacific Northwest storm is forecast to elongate along the West Coast on Friday before moving across the Great Basin on Saturday. Weather forecast models have struggled with the southern extent of the storm and whether it would split and form a southern eddy for several days now, and it looks like the American GFS had an overall better forecast than the European ECMWF with a more coherent storm moving across Colorado on Sunday and Monday.
There will likely still be changes in the forecast as a subtle split is emerging in the latest model iterations, which would change the speed of the storm and the distribution of precipitation. But right now, precipitation should get going by noon on Sunday with rain showers and a rain-snow mix in town turning to snow by sunset, and all snow above Christie Peak.
Snowfall looks heaviest Sunday night, with lighter snowfall continuing through the day Monday. High temperatures will only reach the low forties on Sunday and the mid-thirties on Monday. We could see 2-5” in town by the end of the day Monday and 6-12” on the hill, with difficult travel at times over Rabbit Ears Pass.
A short break on Tuesday looks to be followed by another wintry storm starting Wednesday. So enjoy the pleasant start to the weekend, and check back to my next regularly scheduled weather narrative on Sunday afternoon for the latest details on the two wintry storms.
