Some snow to bookend a pleasant Saturday
Thursday, December 12, 2024
Temperatures are in the low twenties in town and mid-twenties near the top of the Steamboat Ski Resort under bluebird skies this Thursday noon. A pleasant Saturday will be sandwiched by two storms with limited moisture, bringing some snowfall on Friday and Sunday.
The early week storm produced 7.5” at mid-mountain between Sunday and Tuesday evenings, with 19” up top thanks to cold, unstable and just-moist-enough flow from the west and our favorable northwest direction. In fact, 4” of snow was recorded in just 40 minutes at the Steamboat Powdercam during the heaviest shower just before sunset on Monday.
The clear skies and calm winds Wednesday night led to another temperature inversion this morning, with my weather station near the base of the ski area recording a low of -2 F compared to the low of 15 F at the Storm Peak Lab, as breezes from the west and southwest warmed the higher elevations.
An approaching storm now over the West Coast will bring a chance of light snow starting around noon on Friday and lasting into the evening, with accumulations expected to be 1-4” at mid-mountain.
A quick-moving ridge of high pressure behind the departing storm and ahead of a storm forecast to develop off the West Coast on Friday will be overhead on Saturday for a pleasant day with mostly sunny skies. The storm is forecast to weaken as it crosses the Great Basin on Saturday, but enough moisture should be left to bring another 3-6” of accumulations at mid-mountain between early Sunday morning and Sunday evening.
Another storm is forecast to develop south of the Aleutian Islands during the weekend as subtropical moisture mixes with some cold air breaking away from eastern Siberia. High pressure ridging ahead of the eastward-moving storm should bring a dry start to the workweek with snow chances beginning as early as Tuesday as the Aleutian storm approaches.
Enjoy the nice Saturday and the new snow on either side, and I’ll have more details about the midweek storm in my next regularly scheduled weather narrative on Sunday afternoon.
Cold front to arrive tonight with some snow Monday and Tuesday
Sunday, December 8, 2024
A broken cloud deck ahead of a strong cold front tonight is over the Steamboat Springs area this Sunday noon with temperatures only in the low twenties. Dry air just ahead of the front should lead to mostly sunny afternoon skies, but we could see snowflakes as soon as tonight, with most of the accumulations behind the front occurring between Monday and Tuesday noon. A ridge of high pressure then temporarily builds to our west while a storm deepens over the Midwest keeping winds from the northwest and a mix of sun and clouds overhead through the rest of the workweek.
A splitting trough of low pressure extends from the Pacific Northwest through Montana, with the western half of the split forecast to move southward through the Great Basin, bringing a cold front through our area tonight. While we should see mostly sunny afternoon skies ahead of the front, snowflakes could be associated with the front tonight. Sadly, the short-range weather forecast models disagree on snowfall amounts for the entire duration of the storm through Tuesday afternoon, forcing my admittedly broad snowfall estimates.
There could be an inch or two of snow reported at mid-mountain Monday morning at the Steamboat Ski Resort based upon the more optimistic model, though accumulating snowfall will more likely wait until after the report with 1-4” possible by sunset as winds turn to be from the favorable northwest direction behind the front. But there is not a lot of moisture associated with the front, and combined with an even drier reinforcing surge of cold air early Tuesday, there could be another inch or two overnight Monday and 1-4” during the day Tuesday.
Ironically, the cold front will break the strong temperature inversion in the Yampa Valley, with low temperatures in town rising from the low single digits to the low-teens, finally above our average of 7 F. But the relief will be brief as high temperatures behind the front on Monday and Tuesday are only expected to be in the high teens or low twenties, over ten degrees below our average of 31 F.
By Wednesday, a ridge of high pressure is forecast to build temporarily over the West Coast. Our storm will recombine with the eastern half of its split and more cold air from the Canadian Plains, producing a deep and cold area of low pressure over the Midwest. The resultant northwest flow over our area will contain some moisture keeping the cool air, average temperatures and a mix of sun and clouds around through Thursday.
Meanwhile, incoming Pacific energy is forecast to cross the West Coast on Thursday and move the ridge toward our area while weakening it, likely keeping our area dry. However, more incoming Pacific energy may bring snowfall chances back to our area next weekend or soon after.
Let’s hope for the more optimistic side of the early week snowfall forecast, and check back to my next regularly scheduled weather narrative on Thursday afternoon for more details on what we may expect for next weekend.
Beautiful weather to continue through Saturday
Thursday, December 5, 2024
Another bluebird day is over the Steamboat Springs area this Thursday noon with temperatures in the mid-twenties in town and upper-twenties near the top of the Steamboat Ski Resort. Similar weather is expected through Saturday before an incoming storm brings precipitation chances as early as Sunday and colder temperatures for Monday and Tuesday.
A ridge of high pressure is currently over most of the West while a large storm is located over the Aleutian Islands. Energy ejecting from the storm will weaken the ridge of high pressure and allow the storm’s remnants to begin affecting the Pacific Northwest on Saturday as it moves across the Gulf of Alaska. That means continued beautiful weather through at least the beginning of the weekend, with cold mornings in town thanks to the persistence of a temperature inversion caused by clear nighttime skies, calm winds and recent snow cover.
The storm is expected to mix with cold air from western Canada and split as it moves through the Great Basin on Sunday, with weather forecast models indicating uncertainty regarding how much cold air makes it over our area on Sunday. The larger-scale and longer-term models have the cold air staying away from our area on Sunday, while the medium-scale, medium-term model have a cold front moving through by Sunday afternoon.
We will see snow with the cold front, whether it moves in on Sunday or Monday, though amounts at this time look quite modest due to the quick movement of the storm and its limited moisture. What is more certain is that the cold front will first break the low-level temperature inversion thanks to increased winds and the resultant mechanical mixing which brings warmer air aloft down to the surface. But any relief will be short-lived as the very cold air settles overhead on Monday and Tuesday, with high temperatures in town only in the low-twenties or high-teens, well below our 31 F average.
I’m reserving a snowfall guess for my next regularly scheduled weather narrative on Sunday afternoon as forecast amounts are inconsistent both between and within the various weather forecast models. Until then, be sure to enjoy this stretch of beautiful early-December weather.
Temperatures to slowly warm under mostly clear skies
Sunday, December 1, 2024
Clear skies and temperatures in the twenties are over the Steamboat Springs area this Sunday noon on the first day of December, the start of meteorological winter. Quiet and cool weather will persist through the workweek with little hope for precipitation until or just after next weekend.
A ridge of high pressure is over most of the West Coast while a deep and broad area of low pressure is over eastern North America. Our area is under predominantly northwest flow as light winds round the top of the ridge and move toward the eastern low pressure area. Though an area of dry low pressure is slowly spinning well off the southern California coast, weather forecast models have that staying south of our area as it moves inland through the workweek.
The clear skies, light winds and fresh snow cover have led to a strong temperature inversion, where higher elevations are warmer than the cold Yampa Valley bottom. For example, the low temperature at the Storm Peak Lab near the top of the Steamboat Ski Resort was 15 F this morning compared to one degree at my weather station near the resort’s base. At least the low temperature this morning was warmer than the frigid -7 F Saturday morning and -10 F on Friday morning!
Temperature guidance is notoriously too warm under these conditions as weather forecast models struggle with the low-level details, with the low temperatures running ten to fifteen degree below forecast and high temperatures around five degrees below forecast. So we are probably looking at continued single digit lows, about five to ten degrees below our average of 11 F and mid-thirty degree highs, just above our average of 34 F.
Ironically, the best chance of breaking a persistent inversion is an incoming cold front, as winds associated with the front mechanically mix the low-level atmosphere and bring the warmer air aloft down to the surface. While only weak and dry grazing waves in the northwest flow are forecast for Monday and Wednesday, a better chance of some mixing may exist for the end of the work week as a wave of energy is ejected from a strong storm forecast to develop over the Aleutian Islands.
While this currently looks weak, dry and disorganized, a wetter and stronger wave from the Aleutian storm may bring a storm through our region near the end of the weekend or the beginning of the following workweek. So enjoy the sunny but cool week and I’ll have more details about the incoming storm in my next regularly scheduled weather narrative on Thursday afternoon.
