Big snows on the way
Thursday, December 26, 2024
Skies are overcast this Thursday at noon and temperatures are in the low thirties in the town of Steamboat Springs and upper teens near the top of the Steamboat Ski Resort. Four Pacific disturbances are forecast to pass through our area from this afternoon through Monday bringing significant snowfall to all elevations and colder temperatures by Monday.
Yesterday’s storm ended up leaving only a couple of inches at mid-mountain and three inches up top, due to it traveling further south than forecast on Sunday. Splitting storms are always a forecast challenge due to the difficulty in predicting the eventual track and strength of the storm, which the weather forecast models only got right on Tuesday.
That should not be a problem with the upcoming series of storms as they pass overhead in our favorable northwest flow and are lifted by the Park Mountain Range barrier just to our east. Four waves traveling along the southern boundary of a sprawling low pressure area that extends southward from the Gulf of Alaska and westward to Siberia have incorporated rich subtropical moisture, forming so-called atmospheric rivers that will begin affecting our area this afternoon.
That forms a trifecta of favorable conditions for moderate to heavy snow, thanks to plentiful moisture, storm energy and orographic, or terrain-driven lifting of the air mass in winds from the northwest. What is missing is the cold air, which won’t be here until early next week, resulting in snow-liquid water ratios on the hill starting in the upper teens through Friday and falling to the low teens by Sunday afternoon before rebounding back to the upper teens by Sunday night.
Along with up to several inches during the day today, the first wave should bring 6-12” of snow at mid-mountain for the Friday morning ski report, with snowfall rates approaching an inch per hour at times tonight, making travel difficult over Rabbit Ears Pass. Snows should lessen or maybe even stop for a short time Friday morning before the second wave brings moderate to heavy snowfall lasting through midnight on Friday, with snowfall rates at times over an inch per hour. Winds will also pick up, gusting to around 50 mph Friday evening and making travel even more difficult. Another 6-12” is expected on this hill by the Saturday morning report.
A shallow ridge of high pressure moves overhead from Saturday through Sunday afternoons, but thanks to a third wave of moisture traveling through the ridge, snowfall may not completely stop, especially on the hill, with any low-level precipitation possibly a rain-snow mix during this warm part of this storm cycle. Snowfall will also become denser during the day Saturday and through Sunday, with snowfall amounts dependent upon the eventual strength of the ridge, with another 3-6” possible for the Sunday morning report.
The fourth and final wave in this storm cycle will bring additional snow for around Monday, though there is uncertainty around whether this starts Sunday night or early Monday. Early indications are another 5-10” of snow, which will be less dense than what fell during the warm part of the storm and more similar to the beginning. The end of the storm cycle will also usher in much colder temperatures as a ridge of high pressure builds over the West Coast and forces cold air from western Canada southward.
An inch of snow has already fallen at mid-mountain during the time it has taken me to write this weather narrative, as shown by Steamboat’s mid-mountain powdercam, so enjoy the storm cycle that could add up to three inches of liquid water to our snowpack, and check back for more details on the final wave in my next regularly scheduled update on Sunday afternoon.
