Temperatures to slowly warm under mostly clear skies
Sunday, December 1, 2024
Clear skies and temperatures in the twenties are over the Steamboat Springs area this Sunday noon on the first day of December, the start of meteorological winter. Quiet and cool weather will persist through the workweek with little hope for precipitation until or just after next weekend.
A ridge of high pressure is over most of the West Coast while a deep and broad area of low pressure is over eastern North America. Our area is under predominantly northwest flow as light winds round the top of the ridge and move toward the eastern low pressure area. Though an area of dry low pressure is slowly spinning well off the southern California coast, weather forecast models have that staying south of our area as it moves inland through the workweek.
The clear skies, light winds and fresh snow cover have led to a strong temperature inversion, where higher elevations are warmer than the cold Yampa Valley bottom. For example, the low temperature at the Storm Peak Lab near the top of the Steamboat Ski Resort was 15 F this morning compared to one degree at my weather station near the resort’s base. At least the low temperature this morning was warmer than the frigid -7 F Saturday morning and -10 F on Friday morning!
Temperature guidance is notoriously too warm under these conditions as weather forecast models struggle with the low-level details, with the low temperatures running ten to fifteen degree below forecast and high temperatures around five degrees below forecast. So we are probably looking at continued single digit lows, about five to ten degrees below our average of 11 F and mid-thirty degree highs, just above our average of 34 F.
Ironically, the best chance of breaking a persistent inversion is an incoming cold front, as winds associated with the front mechanically mix the low-level atmosphere and bring the warmer air aloft down to the surface. While only weak and dry grazing waves in the northwest flow are forecast for Monday and Wednesday, a better chance of some mixing may exist for the end of the work week as a wave of energy is ejected from a strong storm forecast to develop over the Aleutian Islands.
While this currently looks weak, dry and disorganized, a wetter and stronger wave from the Aleutian storm may bring a storm through our region near the end of the weekend or the beginning of the following workweek. So enjoy the sunny but cool week and I’ll have more details about the incoming storm in my next regularly scheduled weather narrative on Thursday afternoon.
