Unsettled weather returns starting midweek

Sunday, May 28, 2023

After a sunny Sunday morning with temperatures reaching the upper sixties early this afternoon, temperatures have dropped into the low sixties as clouds, cooler air and gusty winds due to evaporating precipitation from surrounding showers moved through. Temperatures are forecast to warm into the low seventies on Memorial Day and approach the mid-seventies on Tuesday as shower chances decrease. But an approaching storm by midweek decreases temperatures and increases shower chances, with the unsettled weather likely to hang around through the weekend.

The eddy I discussed last Thursday is currently just off the northern California coast, and is forecast to move southward toward Baja before turning east by later Tuesday and approaching the Four Corners region around midweek.

Until the eddy is in our vicinity, dry air from the Desert Southwest will continue to be carried over our area in winds from the southwest, with decreasing chances for storms on Memorial Day, and likely Tuesday as well. Temperatures will also rise from the low seventies on Monday toward the mid seventies on Tuesday, slightly above our average of 70 F. Like the last few days, there will be some chances for afternoon and evening thunderstorms which will likely produce more wind than rain thanks to precipitation evaporating in the dry lower levels of the atmosphere before it reaches the ground.

Weather forecast models agree that the eddy and its associated moisture eventually reach our area, though disagree whether it happens on Wednesday, like the American models suggest, or on Thursday like forecast by the European ECMWF. Showers will become more numerous with wetting rains likely, especially to close out the work week.

The unsettled weather is likely to persist into next weekend as a wave of subtropical moisture currently approaching the Dateline follows behind the departing eddy. Have a great Memorial Day, and I’ll be back with my next regularly scheduled weather narrative on Thursday afternoon to discuss the weekend weather.

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30 April 2022

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