Several very nice fall days ahead of another wintry storm for Thursday

Sunday, November 6, 2022

The snow has stopped early this Sunday afternoon in Steamboat Springs with cloudy skies and temperatures around freezing. After the wintry weather that started on Thursday, look for a return to pleasant fall weather with lots of sun and temperatures approaching the mid-fifties to start the work week. But another wintry storm will bring more snowfall to our area for Thursday followed by another round of high temperatures near freezing to end the work week.

This past storm cycle started out well enough with an inch recorded at the official Steamboat Springs weather station near the high school on Thursday morning, with another five inches reported on Friday morning. However, freezing rain Saturday morning brought a 1/8” ice crust over town that I suspect made it to the top of Mt. Werner, based upon the drooping trees on the Steamboat Powedercam time-lapse accompanied by no snowfall accumulations.

The Thursday weather narrative predicted only light snowfall for this weekend, but the jet stream had other ideas as it sagged several hundred miles further south than originally forecast and brought the remnants of a Pacific stream of moisture overhead. Thanks to the shallow moisture and temperatures up top warming past 20 F, the snow production process stopped, leaving just cloud drops that were well below freezing falling through the cloud. Freezing rain resulted when they instantly froze on contact with any surface.

The same process can lead to freezing drizzle or freezing fog, which is not that uncommon for our area in the wintertime, especially near the end of a storm where the atmosphere is slowly drying, and may lead to some crust on the snow surface. However, accumulating freezing rain leading to a thick crust is uncommon, and the ugly breakable crust on the snow surface Saturday morning reminded me of the infamous Opening Day of 2014 that ruined thirty inches of cold and dry powder that had recently fallen.

Moose reading the mid-mountain snowstake at 8 am on 6 Nov 2022This was partially rectified when a cold front last night brought another 5” of snow to mid-mountain by 5 am and an additional 2” by 8 am, as measured by the resident moose stopping by to nibble on some shrubbery at that time.

Meanwhile, a storm with arctic origins is currently located off the Pacific Northwest coast, and is forecast to elongate along the West Coast through Tuesday as it brings good moisture to all of the coastal mountain ranges.

Weather forecast models have trended slower with this storm, and it is now expected to cross the Great Basin on Wednesday and bring more wintry weather to our area for Wednesday night and Thursday.

Before that, winds will turn from the current westerly direction to be from the southwest and increase ahead of the storm, bringing dry air and much warmer temperatures to our area. High temperatures reaching the low to mid fifties are expected starting Monday and lasting through Wednesday, which is more than five degrees above our average of 47 F.

The bulk of the precipitation associated with the incoming storm will be snow, most of which should fall Wednesday night and during the day Thursday, with 6-12” possible up on the hill.  High temperatures will plummet back near freezing which will be a twenty five degree drop from the first half of the week. 

And low temperatures will fall to well below our average of 20 F, especially if clouds start to clear by Friday morning and more so Saturday morning, Low temperatures in the teens are currently forecast for Friday and single digits by Saturday, and along with low relative humidity should allow for perfect snowmaking conditions ahead of the advertised opening of the Steamboat Ski Resort on Wednesday, November 23.

The weekend currently looks cool but nice, though a piece of a dry storm may affect our weather. I’ll know more about that in my next regularly scheduled weather narrative on Thursday afternoon.

Wintry storm followed by cool and unsettled weather for the weekend

Thursday, November 3, 2022

The snow is continuing to fall at all elevations this Thursday afternoon in the Steamboat Springs area with more expected tonight. The storm may depart our area by early Friday followed by a short break, but cool and unsettled weather looks to hang around through the entirety of the weekend thanks to the proximity of the jet stream and the moisture it is carrying. Some nice days should start the work week but will be followed by another wintry storm around midweek.

A split storm currently over the Great Basin has brought wintry weather to our area starting early this morning. After waking up to about an inch of wet snow on my deck near the base of the Steamboat Ski Resort, snows have continued through the day as waves of energy move over our area in the southwest flow ahead of the parent storm to our west. The Steamboat Powdercams at the top and mid-mountain are currently showing about 7”, though the mid-mountain powdercam showed 2” when it was mechanically cleared at 5 am. In fact, those two inches occurred in the span of just twenty minutes between 4:40 am and 5 am as a storm cell passed directly over the mountain. That the two measurements are currently similar is likely the result of the snow settling during the day.

Short range weather forecast models show another period of enhanced snowfall this evening, and there could be another 3-6” of snow up top and several more inches in town before cooler and drier air associated with the northern part of the split storm passes through after midnight. While we will see the favorable northwest flow accompany the cooler air, additional accumulations look quite light as the atmosphere dries considerably.

As the storm departs, a stout jet stream containing adequate moisture is forecast to be close enough to keep cool and showery weather around for later Friday and Saturday after a short break early Friday. Accumulations will be quite light and confined to the higher elevations, with high temperatures only around freezing on Friday and low forties on Saturday, well below our average high of 49 F.

By Saturday, a storm currently near the Arctic Circle north of the Bering Sea is forecast to move into the Gulf of Alaska, rapidly intensify and move southward along the West Coast through the early part of the work week. This will turn our winds from the northwest on Saturday to the west on Sunday and southwest to start the work week.

Moisture in the jet stream is forecast to stick around on Sunday, so expect some warming towards average thanks to the westerly winds along with continued showers, especially at the higher elevations. Dry weather with temperatures in the low fifties should start the work week, but that West Coast storm is eventually forecast to track through the Great Basin during the first half of the week and bring more wintry weather to our area around midweek.

There is weather forecast model uncertainty regarding the track and more so the timing of the storm, so stay tuned to my next regularly scheduled weather narrative on Sunday afternoon where I should have more details on when this next storm may arrive.

Nice start to the workweek ahead of Thursday storm

Sunday, October 30, 2022

Temperatures are nearing fifty degrees under sunny skies in the Steamboat Springs area early this Sunday afternoon. Monday will see a similarly nice day, with winds picking up on Tuesday and Wednesday ahead of a modest storm for Thursday.

A stream of moisture associated with a storm currently in the Gulf of Alaska is bringing precipitation to western Washington State. The storm is forecast to incorporate cold air moving southward across Alaska and elongate along the West Coast through midweek. Our area should see pleasant weather today and Monday with plenty of sun and high temperatures around our average of 51 F.

Tuesday will be the warmest day of the workweek with high temperatures around five degrees above average as winds from the southwest pickup ahead of the evolving storm. The storm should be moving east on Tuesday thanks to an upstream wave of Pacific energy that will eventually slingshot around the bottom of the storm and cause it to split over the Great Basin on Thursday.

We should see temperatures drop a few degrees on Wednesday, but still stay above average, as winds stay from the southwest ahead of the splitting storm. That slingshotting piece of energy is forecast to move overhead by Thursday midday quickly followed by the northern part of the splitting storm. Much cooler temperatures with highs dropping into the lower forties and increasing chances for showers are forecast for Thursday. Any showers may start as rain early in the day in the Yampa Valley, and we may see a rain-snow mix before snow is forecast by the afternoon.

Moisture quickly dries out by Friday, so the storm will be relatively short-lived, limiting snowfall amounts. Plus, snowfall is always uncertain in the southwest flow ahead of storms, and our favorable northwest flow behind the storm never really gets going. We may see around an inch or two of snowfall in town and 4-8” at the Steamboat Ski Resort from this storm, but splitting storms are notoriously unpredictable and there may be changes in the forecast.

So stay tuned to my next regularly scheduled weather narrative on Thursday afternoon where I hope to be discussing the ongoing storm and what is looking like a nice start to next weekend.

Cool and dry fall weather for the weekend

Thursday, October 27, 2022

Temperatures are mired in the low thirties under cloudy skies late this Thursday afternoon in Steamboat Springs. The 3” of snowfall on my deck by the ski resort this morning marked the fifth straight day of snow in town, worthy of any mid-winter storm cycle! After a likely cold Friday morning, the sun returns during the day even as temperatures stay unseasonably cool in the forties. And these cool temperatures will not change much through the weekend despite clouds on Saturday and more sun on Sunday.

The storm that brought our first accumulating snow of the season has formed an eddy over southern Colorado and is forecast to move through Texas on Friday, leaving our area under an unseasonably cold air mass. I’m having a tough time piecing together the accumulated snowfall on the hill since I only archive two days worth of cams, but it appears mid-mountain approached twenty inches of snow from the storm thanks to some enhancement on Sunday night and last night that did not occur up top, where about a foot of snow was recorded.

The weather forecast models are predicting low temperatures tonight in the single digits, ten to fifteen degrees below our 24 F average, though this will be dependent upon clearing skies which may or may not happen overnight. So we may see a situation similar to last Tuesday morning where the forecast cold overnight temperatures never materialized thanks to the insulating effect of clouds.

But sunny skies are forecast for Friday, with high temperatures around five to ten degrees below our rapidly declining average of 53 F. Temperatures will stay similar through the weekend, with clouds on Saturday thanks to a weak Pacific wave of energy that is forecast to split around our area. The sun returns for Sunday and temperatures finally warm toward fifty degrees on Monday and average on Tuesday as a ridge of high pressure begins moving across the West.

That ridge of high pressure will be forced by another large and cold low pressure area that is forecast to form off the West Coast thanks to a wave of energy currently in eastern Siberia that will eventually mix with both subtropical moisture from the south and cold air from the north moving through the Bering Sea. Weather forecast models disagree on the evolution of that low pressure area, but another significant wintry storm may be in our future after midweek. Be sure to check back to my next regularly scheduled weather narrative on Sunday afternoon where I’ll discuss what follows the pleasant start to the work week.

Wintry weather persists through the work week

Sunday, October 23, 2022

A wintry day is over the Steamboat Springs area this Sunday with snow falling and temperatures around thirty degrees late this afternoon, which is a stark change from the sunny skies and mid-sixties of yesterday. Our recent beautiful fall weather will not be returning this work week as the snow lingers into tomorrow before beginning again later Tuesday and possibly lasting through Thursday.

A deep and cold low pressure system has taken the place of the persistent ridge of high pressure over the West, bringing the first accumulating snowfall to all elevations of north central Colorado. The cold front associated with the storm blasted through our area just before sunrise, and I have accumulated almost 4” of snow today on my deck near the base of the mountain with 8” shown on the Steamboat mid-mountain powdercam.

The snows have become more showery late this afternoon, and these showers will linger overnight and through tomorrow morning in the favorable cold, moist and unstable northwest flow. We will see a small break in the unsettled weather from later Monday into Tuesday before two more waves of energy keep the cold and unsettled weather going through Thursday.

The first of these waves is currently located in the Gulf of Alaska and will force the current storm eastward on Tuesday before grazing our area starting in the afternoon. An associated stationary front looks to be around our area for at least Tuesday afternoon which will bring more snow showers, heavier and more numerous at the higher elevations.

The second wave is currently located near the Aleutian Islands and may or may not interact with that stationary front. While the bulk of that second storm looks to bring a round of moderate to sometimes heavy snowfall to our area Wednesday night into Thursday, the interaction between this storm and that stationary front will determine if we see continued light to sometimes moderate showers through Tuesday night and the first half of Wednesday or not.

Along with the snowy week, cold temperatures will also be noteworthy, considering our average high temperature is 55 F and average low temperature is 25 F. Our high temperature today of 42 F occurred just after midnight, though our daytime high was only 33 F, over twenty degrees below average. Look for low temperatures in the teens tonight and possibly approaching the single digits for Tuesday morning, While we will see warmer high temperatures on Tuesday and Wednesday, they will likely stay below the mid-forties. And the Thursday storm will be even colder, with another day mired in the thirties and low temperatures in the mid-single digits on Friday morning under clearing skies.

While it currently looks like a nice and more seasonable weekend, I’ll have more regarding that forecast in my next regularly scheduled weather narrative on Thursday afternoon.

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6 November 2022

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