Wintry storm followed by cool and unsettled weather for the weekend

Thursday, November 3, 2022

The snow is continuing to fall at all elevations this Thursday afternoon in the Steamboat Springs area with more expected tonight. The storm may depart our area by early Friday followed by a short break, but cool and unsettled weather looks to hang around through the entirety of the weekend thanks to the proximity of the jet stream and the moisture it is carrying. Some nice days should start the work week but will be followed by another wintry storm around midweek.

A split storm currently over the Great Basin has brought wintry weather to our area starting early this morning. After waking up to about an inch of wet snow on my deck near the base of the Steamboat Ski Resort, snows have continued through the day as waves of energy move over our area in the southwest flow ahead of the parent storm to our west. The Steamboat Powdercams at the top and mid-mountain are currently showing about 7”, though the mid-mountain powdercam showed 2” when it was mechanically cleared at 5 am. In fact, those two inches occurred in the span of just twenty minutes between 4:40 am and 5 am as a storm cell passed directly over the mountain. That the two measurements are currently similar is likely the result of the snow settling during the day.

Short range weather forecast models show another period of enhanced snowfall this evening, and there could be another 3-6” of snow up top and several more inches in town before cooler and drier air associated with the northern part of the split storm passes through after midnight. While we will see the favorable northwest flow accompany the cooler air, additional accumulations look quite light as the atmosphere dries considerably.

As the storm departs, a stout jet stream containing adequate moisture is forecast to be close enough to keep cool and showery weather around for later Friday and Saturday after a short break early Friday. Accumulations will be quite light and confined to the higher elevations, with high temperatures only around freezing on Friday and low forties on Saturday, well below our average high of 49 F.

By Saturday, a storm currently near the Arctic Circle north of the Bering Sea is forecast to move into the Gulf of Alaska, rapidly intensify and move southward along the West Coast through the early part of the work week. This will turn our winds from the northwest on Saturday to the west on Sunday and southwest to start the work week.

Moisture in the jet stream is forecast to stick around on Sunday, so expect some warming towards average thanks to the westerly winds along with continued showers, especially at the higher elevations. Dry weather with temperatures in the low fifties should start the work week, but that West Coast storm is eventually forecast to track through the Great Basin during the first half of the week and bring more wintry weather to our area around midweek.

There is weather forecast model uncertainty regarding the track and more so the timing of the storm, so stay tuned to my next regularly scheduled weather narrative on Sunday afternoon where I should have more details on when this next storm may arrive.

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6 November 2022

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