Sunday, February 13, 2022
Temperatures have warmed into the mid-teens at the Bob Adams airport and 21 F near the top of Mt. Werner under bluebird skies this Sunday noon. Monday will be another gorgeous day while Tuesday will see increasing clouds and breezes ahead of a complex storm system that should be close enough to bring a good chance of light to possibly moderate snow on Wednesday. Snow may hang on for Thursday, or not, before the weather clears heading into the long Washington’s Birthday weekend.
Currently, a compact storm is located just off the coast of British Columbia while a much broader storm is located near the Dateline. The first storm is forecast to cross the Pacific Northwest coast on Monday and mix with some cold air over western Canada as it moves southward along the Seirra Nevada mountain range, and be quickly followed by some energy that had earlier been ejected from the Dateline storm.
So we have two storms that will interact to some degree, with both incorporating some cold air from western Canada. The amount of cold air mixed into each storm and their interaction will determine the precipitation chances over our area, with forecast uncertainty high due these factors.
Ahead of the storms, expect another beautiful day on Monday with high temperatures in town a bit above our average of 31 F. Tuesday will be another relatively warm day that should be mostly sunny with increasing clouds late in the day and increasing breezes first from the west and then the southwest as the first storm moves southeastward into southern Nevada.
The latest weather forecast model have trended lower with our snow amounts, but right now I would guess accumulating snow starts sometime around or before noon on Wednesday, when the bulk of the first storm passes south of our area, and Wednesday night when the bulk of the second storm passes first to our west and then our south. Total accumulations might be in the 3-6” range by the Thursday morning ski report, though they could less or more depending upon the eventual track of the two storms.
Warming and drying commences sometime on Thursday and continues into the start of the long Washington’s Birthday weekend. However, an unsettled weather pattern may begin around the end of the weekend or soon after as that large storm by the Dateline moves east and possibly vanquishes the persistent ridge of high pressure around the West Coast, opening the door to a much wetter pattern. Weather forecast models always struggle with large-scale pattern changes, and they are currently waffling around that scenario, so stay tuned to my next regularly scheduled weather narrative on Thursday afternoon to see if we can end the month with a snowy period.