Hot week ahead with some shower chances this weekend

Thursday, June 3, 2021

Mostly sunny skies with delightful temperatures around 77 F are over the Steamboat Springs area this Thursday mid-afternoon. Warmer temperatures are in store as we head into the weekend with some shower chances centered on Saturday and Sunday afternoon and evenings. A storm passing to our north will first cool the hot afternoon temperatures by several degrees as we close out the weekend ahead of drier and breezier weather for the upcoming work week.

A large ridge of high pressure over the West will move eastward and over the Rocky Mountains on Friday, bringing the warmest day of the season with plenty of sunshine. If we don’t hit the eighty degree mark today, we should tomorrow as the ridge sits overhead. And this summery warmth is several weeks early as our current average high temperature is only 69 F.

A storm currently in the Gulf of Alaska is forecast to move across Montana on Sunday and drag a weak cool front through our area. Expect another warm day on Saturday ahead of the front, with some shower potential on Saturday afternoon and evening.

We should see temperatures knocked back several degrees on Sunday, though they will still be around ten degrees above average, along with breezier conditions and better chances for afternoon and evening showers as moisture from the south is drawn northward.

Some energy left behind from that Gulf of Alaska storm is forecast to sit off the West Coast for a couple of days before being forced to move inland and near our area around midweek by more energy moving through the Gulf of Alaska. Ahead of that, expect the shower potential to diminish on Monday and most of Tuesday as dry air from the Desert Southwest moves overhead.

By later Tuesday or Wednesday, weather forecast models have that left-over piece of energy off the West Coast moving near our area thanks to additional upstream Pacific energy. The system will be quite dry, but there may enough moisture and energy for a chance of some showers later Tuesday.

There is considerable uncertainty regarding the evolution of upstream Pacific energy, with the American GFS keeping it mostly to our northwest late in the work week while the European ECMWF has it moving further eastward and closer to our area. Unfortunately, it does not look like we will see any moisture from this, but the ECMWF solution predicts cooler temperatures by the end of the work week.

And for the weekend, the ECMWF is cooler and drier as compared to the American GFS which has a ridge of high pressure building over the West. Some moisture may be drawn northward in the southerly flow on the backside of the ridge for an increase in shower chances next weekend, though those chances would be highest to our south. Interestingly, this pattern either mimics or may truly be the first hints that the North American Monsoon is becoming established, though a forecast ten days away will almost certainly change over the coming week.

Enjoy the summery weekend, and I’ll have an updated forecast in my next regularly scheduled weather narrative on Sunday afternoon.

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2 May 2019

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