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Springlike weather lasts through Saturday

Thursday, March 18, 2021

Temperatures are 28 F at the Bob Adams airport and 24 F near the top of Mt. Werner under mostly sunny skies this Thursday noon. More warming temperatures on Friday and Saturday will be followed by a cold front Saturday night which will return our area to cool and unsettled weather that could last through the work week and into the following weekend.

Spring fever is back in the air to close out the work week as a ridge of high pressure moves across the Rockies ahead of a strong storm currently just off the Pacific Northwest coast. Some clouds will pass by today, with high temperatures expected to be around our average of 42 F, and more sun on Friday should propel high temperatures into the fifties.

The Pacific Northwest storm is forecast to split as it crosses the coast tomorrow, with the northern part of the split bringing first clouds and breezy winds from the southwest during the day on another fifty degree Saturday, and then a cold front Saturday night. It does appear we will see a period of moderate to heavy snows when the front blasts through, with 3-6” of snow possible for the Sunday morning report if the current timing holds.

The evolution of the southern part of the split is still uncertain, with another upstream storm forecast to quickly force the southern piece eastward and near our area later Sunday. Weather forecast models are struggling with the organization of the southern piece, as well as the strength of the incoming storm, so it is unclear if snow will continue to fall during the day Sunday and Sunday night, like the American GFS or not, like the European ECMWF.

More forecast uncertainty plagues the work week weather forecast as the American GFS brings that next storm over our area on Tuesday while the European ECMWF has that storm moving southwest of our area. This trend continues for the next incoming storm, so we could see chances of snow for each day of the upcoming week if the storms pass near our area or much drier weather if the storms stay to our southwest.

Interestingly, both of these weather forecast models agree on a cold and wet storm for around the following Friday or the weekend. So enjoy the next several springlike days, and note that due to the large forecast uncertainty after the cold front Saturday night, I may publish the regular Sunday afternoon weather narrative a day earlier than usual on Saturday afternoon.

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10 July 2020

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