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Nice weekend of weather ahead

Thursday, November 26, 2020

It is snowing lightly this Thanksgiving afternoon in Steamboat Springs, with 3” of what looks like low-density, fluffy accumulations on the Steamboat Powdercam and about an inch on my deck. Snows will taper off by midnight after several more inches fall at the higher elevations before a chilly Friday morning is followed by sun and warming temperatures that will persist through Monday. And it now looks like we have cooler temperatures with some snow chances to commemorate our rescheduled Opening Day at the Steamboat Ski Area on Tuesday, 1 December.

Our current wintry Thanksgiving is courtesy of a splitting storm that is bringing enough moisture and energy over our area for some persistent snowfall of light intensity. Cold air will continue to infiltrate our area overnight behind the storm for a chilly Friday morning with low temperatures around zero, which is about ten degrees below our average of 11 F. But a ridge of high pressure that has built behind the storm moves over our area starting on Friday for warming temperatures and sunny skies.

More gorgeous weather is forecast for Saturday before a a grazing storm moving through the top of the ridge of high pressure may be close enough to bring some cooler air and clouds for Sunday. But if any clouds do appear, they will be chased away by a warm and sunny Monday.

There has been a lot of uncertainty in the weather forecast models starting around Tuesday, and the latest consensus is that a storm moving through the Gulf of Alaska will make landfall along the Pacific Northwest coast early Monday before moving first to the east and then the southeast before it eventually passes overhead on Tuesday. That early easterly trajectory looks to allow the Cascades to grab most of the moisture from the storm, though the storm stays cold and several inches of snowfall is now looking possible through the day Tuesday and overnight.

The storm is forecast to form some sort of eddy nearby or overhead, and it may not be completely cut off from the jet stream which makes predicting its movement difficult. And that eddy may itself split, leaving some of the storm near our area and some migrating to the southwest. Right now, it looks like precipitation ends early Wednesday as the cold air sticks around for the day before we see a cold Thursday morning give way to sun and warming temperatures.

And though there is an active jet stream forecast over the Pacific during this time frame, our weather is looking quiet as we head into the following weekend. Stay tuned to my next regularly scheduled weather narrative late on Sunday afternoon for an update to our Opening Day weather, and enjoy the beautiful upcoming weekend.

Moderate storm later Monday with some Thanksgiving snowflakes possible

Sunday, November 22, 2020

After a chilly start this Sunday morning, the Steamboat Springs area is seeing temperatures in the low forties under sunny skies. Clouds will be increasing later today ahead of a moderate storm that starts Monday afternoon, with the heaviest snowfall expected overnight. Skies will clear later Tuesday with Wednesday being an in-between day before some light snow is possible on Thanksgiving.

A storm currently crossing the West Coast will be over our area Monday night, with clouds increasing ahead of the storm later today. Some energy ejecting out of the storm may bring a shower or two overnight and tomorrow morning before a bit of accumulating snow is forecast by sunset as some cool air filters in. The main part of the storm is expected to pass through our area overnight, with the bulk of the snowfall occurring between midnight and early Tuesday morning before tapering off by around noon.

There is some splitting indicated in the weather forecast models as the storm crosses Colorado, but enough of the storm may pass overhead for 4-8” to accumulate above mid-mountain and about half that in town. Snowfall rates may exceed an inch per hour at times, though winds will pick up well behind the storm so travel may only be moderately difficult at times.

Precipitation should end after noon on Tuesday with some sun appearing for later Tuesday and Wednesday. But another storm, currently over the Bering Sea, is forecast to intensify and quickly move across the Gulf of Alaska on Tuesday and across our area on Thanksgiving Day. In my last Thursday weather narrative, I suggested that a dry forecast for Thanksgiving might change as our weather could eventually be some sort of wetter comprise between storms to our south and north. And indeed, it now it appears that some sort of stretched storm will pass overhead with some light snow possible from Thanksgiving afternoon through Friday morning. At this point, accumulations would be minor at best, but we’ll see where we stand when I publish my next weather narrative, which I may move up to Wednesday or leave to my usual time slot on Thursday afternoon.

A ridge of high pressure then tries to build over the West from later Friday into Saturday, though a dry storm flattening the ridge later Saturday may graze our area with some cooler air on Sunday. Another ridge of high pressure follows for Monday, and it is unclear what the weather will be for the new Opening Day of the Steamboat Ski Area on Tuesday, 1 December.

Meager snow for Saturday morning followed by much better storm on Monday

Thursday, November 19, 2020

Temperatures are running about ten degrees above our average of 39 F this Thursday afternoon under mostly cloudy skies, with peeks of sun. A couple of weak storms passing through today and Friday night into Saturday morning look to bring only slight chances for snow, with meager accumulations possible on Saturday. A more potent storm is becoming more likely for Monday into Tuesday morning followed by dry weather through Thanksgiving.

I guess under the current circumstances it is not surprising that both the storm and Opening Day that were expected for this Saturday have gone missing. That storm, as well as the current cloudiness over our area are the result of a couple of ripples in the fast westerly flow of the jet stream passing near our area. While I don’t expect any precipitation from today’s storm, there is a better chance of some meager accumulations from Friday night into Saturday morning of up to an inch or two.

A ridge of high pressure ahead of a potent storm currently in the Bering Sea is forecast to build over our area for a nice Sunday. The Bering Sea storm is forecast to cross the Gulf of Alaska and make landfall on the West Coast later that day before affecting our area with likely snowfall on Monday through Tuesday morning. The cold front associated with the storm is currently timed to be through our area by noon on Monday, with winds shifting to be from the west to the favorable northwest. Though the evolution of the storm is uncertain at this time, current weather forecast models have generally light to moderate snowfall over our area through the rest of the day and overnight before tapering off during Tuesday morning, leaving around 5-10” of accumulations.

A ridge of high pressure behind the storm should bring clearing skies later Tuesday and Wednesday before substantial weather forecast model disagreement appears for Thanksgiving. And while the European ECMWF has a much stronger storm crossing the West Coast on Wednesday as compared to the American GFS (which incidentally has trended strongly towards the ECMWF for the Monday storm), both keep our area dry, with the ECMWF splitting the storm around northern Colorado and the GFS quickly moving a shallow wave to our north.

We can only hope at this point that both are wrong, and it is possible that a compromise solution may bring some sort of storm overhead for Thanksgiving. With such a range of possibilities for Thursday, I’ll refrain from commenting on the weather forecast for the following weekend until my next regularly scheduled weather narrative on Sunday afternoon.

Sunny and warm weather midweek followed by possible weekend storm

Sunday, November 15, 2020

Similar to yesterday, temperatures in Steamboat Springs are hovering around freezing on this cloudy Sunday afternoon. Temperatures will warm and skies will clear for part of the work week, with Tuesday and Wednesday being the warmest and sunniest days of the upcoming week. Clouds then appear for the end of the work week ahead of a possible weekend storm.

Yesterday’s storm brought the forecast winds, with 3.5” on my deck by Saturday morning, but only 4” shown on the Steamboat Powdercam, which was less than I expected. The Tower Snotel at the top of Buffalo Pass showed about 8”, so it is possible that areas of the mountain below the summit were less wind-affected and had more snow than shown.

We’ll see some light snow showers through Monday morning which will be confined to the higher elevations and areas closer to the Wyoming border. But warmer and sunnier weather is on the way thanks to a ridge of high pressure forecast to build over the West ahead of a strong storm developing in the Gulf of Alaska. Temperatures will warm to just above our average of 41 F on Monday as any morning clouds give way to some sun in the afternoon.

The ridge of high pressure will amplify as it passes over the Rocky Mountains on Tuesday, bringing sunny skies and warmer temperatures ten to maybe fifteen degrees above average for Tuesday and Wednesday.

Enjoy the nice couple of days as energy ejecting out ahead of that Gulf of Alaska storm will bring cooler temperatures and clouds for Thursday and Friday. While I mentioned this storm a week ago in last Sunday’s weather narrative as a possibility for Opening Day at the Steamboat Ski Area, it turns out that the storm cooperated, but the response to COVID-19 did not, with a new Opening Day now scheduled for Tuesday, 1 December.

Let’s hope that can happen as the storm may be significant, though there is disagreement between and within the weather forecast models as to the speed and strength of the storm. Right now it appears the brunt of the storm will be on Saturday with it winding down by Sunday.

The active jet stream is forecast to bring more storms over our area during Thanksgiving week, though again there is disagreement with respect to timing and strength. In any event, there is hope that a series of storms will bring enough snow and cool weather to the Steamboat Ski Area to allow them to execute their mitigation plans and safely open. I’ll have more details on the upcoming storms in my next regularly scheduled weather narrative on Thursday afternoon.

Snowy Saturday followed by midweek warming

Thursday, November 12, 2020

I had 4” of snow on my deck this Thursday morning, with around 9” shown on the Steamboat Powdercam. The sun is out this afternoon on a crisp late-fall day with temperatures around freezing in the Steamboat Springs area. We should see continued beautiful weather for Friday before a quick-moving winter storm brings wind and snow to our area on Saturday before tapering off late in the day. After some more snow showers later Sunday, expect warming temperatures through the work week before some sort of storm is advertised for around Opening Day of the Steamboat Ski Area, which is on Saturday, 21 November.

Behold the magic of our favorable northwest flow! The storm last night had gone through a lot of forecast changes since its original mention in my weather narrative a week ago, going from a 2-5” event to a minimal event in my Sunday weather narrative to an eventual 5-10” event. Weather forecast models had a tough time with this wave embedded in the favorable, moist, cool and unstable northwest flow, not getting it right until the Wednesday morning iteration.

Our high temperatures on a mostly sunny Friday will warm towards average, which is now only 43 F and falling by around a half degree every day. A shallow wave currently in the Gulf of Alaska will approach our area later Friday, bringing increasing clouds and winds from the southwest. Light snow showers should begin around midnight on Friday night ahead of the cold front before intensifying early Saturday morning as the front moves through and swings our winds to once again be from the favorable northwest.

This quick-moving storm will bring periods of moderate to heavy snowfall from before sunrise on Saturday through the early afternoon, likely making travel difficult at pass level as the accompanying strong winds bring blowing snow and limited visibility. I would expect 6-12” on the mountain by sunset on Saturday with around half that in the Yampa Valley.

Snow showers will end for a time overnight before a much weaker wave, still in northwest flow, moves across later Sunday and generates some light snow showers, most intermittent at the lower elevations.

But this ripple in the jet stream, in still favorable northwest flow, does not look to be very productive as a ridge of high pressure begins building over the West Coast in advance of another storm developing in the Gulf of Alaska. So after a cool and showery Sunday, the snow showers will end early Monday and we should see periods of sun as temperatures moderate back towards average.

Further warming and drying is advertised for Tuesday and Wednesday with high temperatures up to ten degrees above average for a beautiful couple of days as the ridge of high pressure moves overhead. Warm temperatures will persist for the rest of the work week, though we will see some clouds as moisture is brought over our area in the southwest flow behind the ridge of high pressure and ahead of the Gulf of Alaska storm approaching the West Coast.

There is a fair bit of disagreement among the weather forecast models as to the evolution of this storm, though it appears we will see some snow for Opening Day weekend. Stay tuned to my next regularly scheduled weather narrative on Sunday afternoon for a recap of the Saturday storm and more details on the storm forecast for next weekend.

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7 July 2020

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