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Breezy with mostly average temperatures this week

Thursday, October 15, 2020

The Steamboat Springs area is seeing a sunny and brisk fall day with temperatures in the upper forties this Thursday afternoon. Temperatures will generally warm towards the mid-sixties as the winds remain stout for the upcoming week, except for several dry cold fronts that will bring below average temperatures for at least Sunday and Thursday.

The current weather pattern over North America is dominated by an expansive ridge of high pressure off the West Coast and a vortex of cold air centered near Hudson Bay and extending through the Midwest and Northeast. The cold air won’t be going anywhere for the upcoming week, and we will be susceptible to cold fronts from occasional waves of Pacific energy traveling over the West Coast ridge in northwest flow and mixing with the cold air from the Canadian Plains.

Until the first cold front arrives early on Sunday, we should see lots of sun and breezy northwest winds as the jet stream continues to move overhead. Temperatures should warm to five or so degrees above our average of 59 F for both Friday and Saturday.

Temperatures on Sunday will fall below average behind the front. There may be enough moisture for more clouds and some very light high-elevation showers, possibly before the front Saturday night and more likely later Sunday afternoon and overnight.

We’ll see some warming on Monday and cooling on Tuesday if the weakest cold front of the upcoming week grazes the area as currently forecast. And that pattern repeats starting on Wednesday as we should see warming temperatures again ahead of a stronger cold front advertised for Thursday.

A peek at the longer-range weather forecast models show a similar pattern through the following weekend, with some warming ahead of another likely dry cold front around mid-weekend. Earlier this week, the usually more-consistent European ECMWF had some sort of storm forecast in about a week, though that model has trended drier and weaker with that storm, similar to the American GFS. Stay tuned to my next regularly scheduled weather narrative on Sunday afternoon to see if there are any changes to our generally dry and breezy weather forecast.

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