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Showers possible most days this week

Thursday, July 23, 2020

The North American Monsoon has finally arrived in Steamboat Springs, with showers both yesterday and early this Thursday afternoon. These showers will be around for most days this upcoming week before we see some drying by mid-next week just behind a likely wet Tuesday.

I saw two tenths of rain at my house near the base of the Steamboat Ski Area yesterday, and another two tenths from the shower early this afternoon. We may see another shower by sunset, with a break before more showers overnight.

A weak and ill-defined area of energy either from a broad area of low pressure to our west or embedded within the monsoonal flow from the south will move over our area on Friday. So look for a fair bit of activity with showers throughout the day, possibly most numerous in the morning.

Behind the departing wave of energy, the weather looks to briefly dry for a much reduced chance of showers on Saturday. More waves of energy embedded in the monsoonal flow will move across portions of Colorado over the weekend, though there is weather forecast model uncertainty with respect to the timing, location and strength. My best guess right now is a mostly dry Saturday, perhaps with some showers overnight and again Sunday afternoon.

Showers look to continue on Monday ahead of a good chance of more substantial rains on Tuesday as the broad area of low pressure off the West Coast moves inland and across the Great Basin ahead of a powerful storm forecast to develop in the Gulf of Alaska.

Our atmosphere is forecast to dry for Wednesday and Thursday as the monsoonal plume of moisture from the south is temporarily severed behind the passing storm. Along with the drying, expect our high temperatures to return to five degrees or so above our average of 82 F as the reduced cloud cover allow our daytime temperatures to rise.

The moisture looks to return by the end of next work work week, though there is weather forecast model uncertainty with respect to how long it stays around. I’ll know more about that, as well as updating the wet early work week forecast on my next regular weather narrative scheduled for Sunday afternoon.

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