Sunday, August 12, 2018
Shower chances increase starting around Monday night as the Steamboat Springs area will see weather associated with both a storm currently spinning to our southeast and incoming Pacific energy.
The meteorologically interesting storm to our southeast has kept light northeasterly flow over northern Colorado this weekend, and as this storm moves to the northeast starting Monday, the flow aloft will turn to the northwest as a weak cool front associated with a Pacific storm traveling along the Canadian border is dragged across our area late Monday night or early Tuesday morning. Until then expect continued hot temperatures with only the slightest chance of a weak late-day storm for the rest of this Sunday and Monday.
We should see temperatures tick down a bit for Tuesday and Wednesday behind the weak front, but more significantly, we will see some increasing moisture and the possibility of some showers starting overnight Monday, with some of them producing brief, locally heavy rainfall for those areas lucky enough to be under the stronger thunderstorm cells.
The heat will return for the end of the work week as a ridge of high pressure temporarily builds behind the departing storm to our north, though there will be some moisture that may produce some afternoon clouds and the small chance of some showers.
The weekend is looking interesting, though more uncertain, as some left over energy off the West Coast from the early week storm looks to eventually mix with some cool western Canadian air. And yes, this could produce our first fall-like cool front with temperatures below average by the end of next weekend or the beginning of the next work week, but there is weather forecast model disagreement as to the extent and timing of the cool air surge.
Right now, the American GFS has shower chances increasing for northern Colorado early in the weekend as the weak Pacific storm approaches. A relatively strong surge of cool air from the north is forecast to then reinforce the storm as it moves over our area late in the weekend, and this should bring increasing shower chances and below average temperatures by the start of the following work week.