Warm and dry for Closing Week
Monday, April 10, 2017
An easy forecast for me to make means tranquil weather over the Steamboat Springs area this week. The still active Pacific jet stream will drive a weak and dry wave across the Great Basin later Tuesday, briefly interrupting a steady warming trend already in progress and possibly bringing some clouds for later Tuesday and early Wednesday.
Concurrently, a powerful storm develops in the Gulf of Alaska and makes landfall along the West Coast around midweek. Our temperatures will rise to above normal on Thursday as breezy southwest flow ahead of the storm carries warm air over the Rockies. However, the storm will be deflected to our northwest and then move north of our area as the western ridge holds strong. Some cooler air will be dragged over our region on Friday and Saturday, and there may be enough moisture for some clouds both days, and even a stray shower Friday afternoon.
Behind the grazing storm early in the weekend, skies will be sunny and temperatures above normal again for Sunday and Monday as the western ridge rebuilds.
Next storm for later Saturday and Sunday ahead of more warm and dry
Friday, April 7, 2017
A moderate atmospheric river event is currently pounding California again and will push the western ridge responsible for the warm and dry weather over the Steamboat Springs area eastward on Saturday. Breezy winds today will increase on Saturday ahead of the precipitation which will start as soon as Saturday afternoon.
The storm will come in two main pieces, with energy ejecting ahead of the storm bringing the possibility of some thunder by Saturday afternoon in windy conditions with snow levels above 9000′ or so. Precipitation will be showery, with some showers capable of producing periods of localized moderate to heavy precipitation.
The main cold front looks to push through our area after midnight on Saturday as the parent storm travels across the Colorado - Wyoming border, dropping snow levels to the valley bottom by Sunday morning. But a promising storm has become less promising over the last few model runs as a further-north storm track and quickly eroding moisture limit the accumulations. Due to the likely variable nature of the precipitation, especially during the first part of the storm, I would guess 1-4” by Sunday morning with another 1-4” during the day as cool and unsettled weather continues in the favorable northwest flow behind the storm.
Drying and seasonable temperatures are expected for Monday. The midweek storm from the last forecast is now expected to only graze our area on Tuesday, keeping our area dry and dropping temperatures a bit.
Another western ridge builds behind the weak storm, bringing warming temperatures by Wednesday and much above normal temperatures by Thursday.
Another powerful Gulf of Alaska storm is forecast to cross the West Coast around Thursday. However, the higher sun angles of Spring will bolster the western ridge, weakening the Gulf of Alaska storm as it moves eastward across the great Basin on Friday. Right now, only light and relatively warm showers are expected later Friday before the western ridge rebounds for the Closing Weekend. However, the models are struggling the interaction between Pacific energy and the western ridge, and I expect the forecast for Closing Weekend to evolve over the next week.
Cold storm for Tuesday followed by warming and drying for the work week
Monday, April 3, 2017
Another storm traveling through the Great Basin today will move across northern Arizona tonight and the Oklahoma panhandle tomorrow. As was the case with the two previous storms, most of the precipitation will stay south of the Steamboat Springs area closer to the storm. However, several surges of cold air from the north will move over our area overnight and tomorrow, increasing the chance of snow showers, especially during the day Tuesday as the cold air destabilizes the atmosphere and allows for the possibility of thunder-snow.
Snowfall amounts are likely to be highly variable as the heaviest snowfall associated with showers will be localized, especially during the day tomorrow. We may see an inch or two after midnight and another 2-4” during the rest of Tuesday before skies clear overnight and bring seasonably cold temperatures for Wednesday morning.
A sharp ridge of high pressure builds over the western states and will allow temperatures to increase to near normal by Wednesday afternoon and above normal for the rest of the work week.
A moderate atmospheric river event impinges on the California coast around Friday and pushes the western ridge eastward. Models are waffling on how quickly the moisture and energy penetrates inland, but agree that breezy to windy southwest conditions will occur ahead of the precipitation.
Right now, Saturday will be the windy day with showers starting by the afternoon and increasing overnight. There is disagreement among the models with respect to how much cold Canadian air mixes with the storm, with the European ECMWF more aggressive than the American GFS in bringing the cold air southward, resulting in a stronger and slower moving storm.
Regardless, a break in the weather is forecast for early next week before a colder and stronger storm from the Gulf of Alaska brings another chance of possibly significant snowfall around mid next week.