Monday, July 18, 2016
A large storm currently off the Pacific Northwest coast has forced a ridge to build over the western US, allowing south-southwesterly flow to carry monsoonal moisture from Mexico northwards over Colorado. This moist flow is a day or two faster than my previous forecast, keeping temperatures closer to normal today as clouds periodically inhibit the sunshine.
Very short range models indicate showers redeveloping overnight as old storm boundaries interact and force storms in the moist and unstable airmass.
Additional ill-defined waves from the south will continue to travel over Colorado for the work week, keeping a mix of sun, clouds and showers around with near normal temperatures.
Though models have pieces of energy ejecting from the Pacific Northwest later in the work week, the western ridge will deflect them to our north with minimal impact on the monsoon. However, the storm finally makes landfall late in the work week, and looks to drag a cool front across the Steamboat Springs region late Friday or early Saturday.
Winds will veer from the southerly direction to the westerly or northwesterly direction, effectively ending the influx of moisture from the south as the western ridge flattens. Remaining moisture will continue the threat of afternoon storms for the weekend under much drier conditions and warming temperatures.