Thursday, May 5, 2016
Another large Pacific storm has split along the West Coast, with the dominant southern portion forming a large closed low cutoff from the jet stream and the northern branch speeding eastward north of the Canadian border. Energy ejected over our area from the cutoff low to our southwest may bring light showers to our area as soon as noon on Friday, but the showers will likely become strong by the afternoon and be accompanied by thunder as a cool front from the northern stream adds additional lift and instability to the atmosphere. Snow levels will be quite high in this warm storm, likely staying above 10,000′.
There is still uncertainty in the details, but a slot of dry air is forecast to be over or east of our area Saturday morning, possibly bringing some sun to start the day. However, showers will once again reform, possibly becoming strong with thunder in the afternoon, as more energy is ejected from the southwest storm.
We may have some sun for Mother’s Day morning, though the latest model trends have that less likely, before more showers reform in the unsettled weather for the afternoon. Additionally, the afternoon storms may be stronger than I thought yesterday.
By Monday, the storm will be east of us, though we will still be susceptible to showers during the day as energy rotates around the backside of the low.
A colder storm from the Pacific Northwest is forecast to quickly follow this storm after a brief break during Tuesday, keeping the active weather going for later in the day Tuesday and Wednesday, with snow a possibility down to the valley floor of Steamboat.