Tuesday, November 17, 2015
The Steamboat ski area reported 10” of new snow today from the storm which began early Monday morning. Snows are forecast to increase again for tomorrow and Friday, with the American GFS model bringing another quick-moving storm for Sunday. For those keeping score, the European ECMWF did a better job than the American GFS last week by keeping the storm progressive for today and tomorrow, as discussed in the last forecast, so the forecast for Sunday is uncertain.
The current cool and moist northwest flow looks to continue through the weekend, continuing the unsettled weather. Snowfall will increase again on Wednesday as a quick moving wave moves over the Steamboat Springs area. Temperatures will cool during the day and the storm should leave another 3-6” on the hill by Thursday morning.
A brief break in the wintry weather is forecast early Thursday before a similar but stronger wave brings another shot of snow and colder temperatures for Friday. If this wave holds together as advertised, another 5-10” of snow should be reported on the hill by Saturday morning.
By Sunday, the American GFS has trended significantly stronger with the next wave in northwest flow while the European ECMWF has kept the wave weaker and further north. The ECMWF’s recent out-performance notwithstanding, I do like the American GFS’s trend and would not discount that solution for more snow Sunday.
Another break is forecast for early in the work week before significant differences in the two models appear again by mid week. It appears likely we will get some sort of weather around Thanksgiving, though the details are obscure at this time.