Thursday, June 25, 2015
After a small threat of afternoon storms today that will likely produce mostly windy conditions due to the very dry lower atmosphere, temperatures soar to above normal by the weekend. A building ridge just west of us over the Great Basin will keep us hot and dry for at least the first half of the weekend. Some moisture is forecast to be drawn northward along the western periphery of the ridge and eventually move over our region, leaving a small chance of storms starting Sunday afternoon and extending through Tuesday.
By Wednesday, models forecast some cool air from the Canadian plains flattening the Great Basin ridge and allowing for the possibility of stronger storms from Wednesday afternoon and extending through the Fourth of July weekend. The American GFS has the cool air approaching our area around Wednesday while the European ECMWF minimizes this surge mid-week and delays the brunt of the cool air until later in the workweek or early in the weekend.
Longer-term, the continued surges of cool air will keep the ridge from rebuilding over our area, keeping seasonable temperatures in the forecast beyond the Fourth of July weekend.