Thursday, June 4, 2015
The current warm and dry weather will end by tomorrow as a storm along the West Coast draws moisture from once-hurricane Andres over our area. Clouds will thicken during the day and showers will occur tomorrow afternoon and through the evening. There will be a small break early Saturday before a lobe of energy is ejected over our area ahead of the eastward progressing West Coast storm, bringing another round of moderate to heavy rain for Saturday afternoon.
There will be another break Sunday before the storm to our west lifts toward the northeast and travels across the Great Basin. Though the storm weakens considerably, there is still enough moisture and upward motion to to produce showers by Sunday afternoon.
We will still be under the influence of the weakened storm on Monday, leading to more showers, especially in the afternoon. Tuesday and Wednesday look to be the nicest days of next week, though there will still be the threat of the typical afternoon thunderstorm.
There is a wildcard for the forecast next week in the form of hurricane Blanca, which is forecast to move up the Baja coast early next week. Earlier model runs had the moisture moving over our area, but current runs keep most of the moisture to our south. However, models also forecast a complicated interaction between the former hurricane, another storm entering the West Coast around midweek, and a surge of cool air from the Canadian plains. These three entities may conspire to increase the threat of heavy rain by Thursday afternoon and lasting through Friday. That forecast will likely evolve as we get closer to the event.
After that, some models predict a far-western Caribbean storm that may help draw moisture northward and lead to a monsoonal-like surge of moisture over our area for late next weekend or early the following workweek.