After light snow tonight, possibly big snows start Thursday night and last until Monday

Wednesday, January 8, 2014

After about 2” of snow last night, another weak wave traverses the area tonight. There is not much cool air associated with this wave, so I would expect another several inches by Thursday morning after light snow begins this afternoon.

Snow may let up a bit Thursday, but likely not end high on the hill. The next wave affects our area by Thursday afternoon. Yesterday, I was concerned about this wave splitting as it moved over the Great Basin, but the European model solution has uncharacteristically moved toward the American model solution and now keeps the wave far more intact. Confidence increases, then, that significant snows will occur Thursday night when the main wave passes and again Friday night as a trailing wave sneaks through behind the departing main wave.

Snow will wane early Thursday before increasing again, especially after sunset as the cool air begins moving over the area. With cool air and a moderately strong and moist wave in stiff northwest flow, I would expect 6-12” by Friday morning, with optimistically some Steamboat magic occurring between 5am and 9am. Snow will lighten later in the morning before picking up again later in the afternoon and likely becoming heavy as the trailing wave moves over the area.

Snow will become lighter by midnight as the air mass warms and stabilizes, and the snow will likely stop for a short time Saturday. I might expect another 6-12” by Saturday morning with only a small amount of that occuring after midnight Friday.

The final wave affecting our area by Saturday afternoon is also cool, moist, energetic and from the northwest, so I would expect another 6-12” by Sunday morning, again optimistically with some Steamboat magic occurring between 5am and 9am. The morning snows should lighten during the day, but will likely persist through Monday morning. Most of the forecast 3-6” of snow by Monday morning will have fallen Sunday.

A dry and grazing wave in northwest flow looks to bring more cool air into the area Monday night, but no precipitation is currently expected. Likely a couple of brilliant sunny days Tuesday and Wednesday as mountain slopes warm, though valley inversion will reform and strengthen. Another grazing wave in northwest flow may bring some cool air into the region around Friday, though models are currently struggling with the westward extent of this wave.

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1 April 2018

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