Sunday, November 17, 2013
Showers may continue for most of the day on the hill while the valleys should clear this afternoon.
Temperature will warm significantly on Monday and stay warm for at least Tuesday. A weak wave traverses our state on late Tuesday into Wednesday leading to some showers producing only a few inches on the hill and light rain in the valleys, although model runs are trending a bit stronger with this disturbance.
It appears model differences have been resolved for the storm later in the week as the American GFS model has trended strongly towards the European ECMWF model. A strong wave entering the west coast on Wednesday splits, with the southern portion forming a cutoff low moving southward along the coast while the northern portion moves along the US border with Canada. By Thursday, some of this cold air from the northern wave will be over our area as energy begins to eject from the cutoff low now forecast to be just off the coast of southern California.
Some models forecast significant precipitation form this interaction for Thursday and most of Friday, before skies clear by the weekend. There is uncertainty with regards to how much energy is split between the northern and southern streams, so the forecast is subject to change.