Quick update for more snow tonight
Wednesday, January 1, 2025
It’s cold and grey in Steamboat Springs on the first day of 2025 with temperatures at all elevations around ten degrees at noon, after low temperatures of -5 F in town and -1 F near the top of the Steamboat Ski Resort. This quick update addresses a stronger and closer wave for tonight than discussed in my last weather narrative on Sunday.
The remnants of an atmospheric river entering the Great Basin in our favorable northwest flow will graze north-central Colorado tonight and tomorrow. Snowfall should pick up around mid-evening, and I now expect 4-8” of snow at mid-mountain by the Thursday morning ski report, with another 2-5” during the day, some of which will fall between the report and the opening of the lifts.
The snowfall will be accompanied by gusty winds up to 40 mph from the west and northwest, which could make travel difficult at times over Rabbit Ears Pass and impact snow quality on the hill. Additionally, the atmosphere will slowly warm during the storm, often adversely affecting snowfall amounts and quality.
Currently, dry weather and warming temperatures are forecast for Friday and half of Saturday before snowfall begins again as early as Saturday afternoon and lasts through Monday. I’ll have more details on the weekend weather in my next regularly scheduled weather narrative on Thursday afternoon.
Cold air and snow to arrive tonight with the final wave of this storm cycle
Sunday, December 29, 2024
Even though sunny skies appeared for about an hour late this Sunday morning in Steamboat Springs, overcast skies have returned this mid-afternoon with temperatures in the upper thirties in town and upper twenties near the top of the Steamboat Ski Resort. The mild weather of the current storm cycle, which began Thursday, will be gone by Monday as the final storm in the series moves overhead tonight and brings more snow, gusty winds and much colder temperatures.
A cold storm that crossed the Gulf of Alaska on Saturday will grow colder today as it moves through the Pacific Northwest and mixes with additional cold air from western Canada. High temperatures in town will fall from about ten degrees above our average of 28 F today to average on Monday and near ten degrees below average on Tuesday as the cold front associated with the storm passes through tonight. Though there may be some light snow showers this evening, moderate to heavy snow showers should develop by around midnight and continue through sunrise, leaving 4-8” of snow at mid-mountain for the Monday morning report.
Unfortunately, winds with gusts as high as 60 mph along and behind the front will make travel difficult over Rabbit Ears Pass from midnight into Monday morning as the low-density snow will be easy to blow around.
Though most of the snowfall will be over Monday morning, afternoon and evening snow showers in favorable cold and moist northwest flow may leave another 2-5” on the hill which would be reported on a relatively cold Tuesday morning with temperatures in town falling to below the average of 4 F.
Mostly cloudy skies with some light snow showers may hang around on Tuesday before a reinforcing wave of cold air arrives on New Year’s Eve, bringing a frigid start to the first day of 2025 with low temperatures in the negative single digits, and perhaps negative teens in the favorable low-lying areas of the Yampa Valley.
Some sun and a warming atmosphere will help high temperatures in town rebound to near-average on New Year’s Day before another Pacific storm in northwest flow grazes our area starting Wednesday night. Snowfall amounts by Thursday morning currently look to be in the 3-6” range with additional snow showers possible during the day, though the strength of the wave is still uncertain so there may be more or less than that.
A brief ridge of high pressure is forecast to move across the West late in the workweek ahead of the next possible storm for around next weekend. So get out today and shovel what remains of the maritime snow before it freezes solid on Monday, enjoy the fresh snow tomorrow, and check back for my next regularly scheduled weather narrative on Thursday afternoon for more details on the possible weekend storm.
Big snows on the way
Thursday, December 26, 2024
Skies are overcast this Thursday at noon and temperatures are in the low thirties in the town of Steamboat Springs and upper teens near the top of the Steamboat Ski Resort. Four Pacific disturbances are forecast to pass through our area from this afternoon through Monday bringing significant snowfall to all elevations and colder temperatures by Monday.
Yesterday’s storm ended up leaving only a couple of inches at mid-mountain and three inches up top, due to it traveling further south than forecast on Sunday. Splitting storms are always a forecast challenge due to the difficulty in predicting the eventual track and strength of the storm, which the weather forecast models only got right on Tuesday.
That should not be a problem with the upcoming series of storms as they pass overhead in our favorable northwest flow and are lifted by the Park Mountain Range barrier just to our east. Four waves traveling along the southern boundary of a sprawling low pressure area that extends southward from the Gulf of Alaska and westward to Siberia have incorporated rich subtropical moisture, forming so-called atmospheric rivers that will begin affecting our area this afternoon.
That forms a trifecta of favorable conditions for moderate to heavy snow, thanks to plentiful moisture, storm energy and orographic, or terrain-driven lifting of the air mass in winds from the northwest. What is missing is the cold air, which won’t be here until early next week, resulting in snow-liquid water ratios on the hill starting in the upper teens through Friday and falling to the low teens by Sunday afternoon before rebounding back to the upper teens by Sunday night.
Along with up to several inches during the day today, the first wave should bring 6-12” of snow at mid-mountain for the Friday morning ski report, with snowfall rates approaching an inch per hour at times tonight, making travel difficult over Rabbit Ears Pass. Snows should lessen or maybe even stop for a short time Friday morning before the second wave brings moderate to heavy snowfall lasting through midnight on Friday, with snowfall rates at times over an inch per hour. Winds will also pick up, gusting to around 50 mph Friday evening and making travel even more difficult. Another 6-12” is expected on this hill by the Saturday morning report.
A shallow ridge of high pressure moves overhead from Saturday through Sunday afternoons, but thanks to a third wave of moisture traveling through the ridge, snowfall may not completely stop, especially on the hill, with any low-level precipitation possibly a rain-snow mix during this warm part of this storm cycle. Snowfall will also become denser during the day Saturday and through Sunday, with snowfall amounts dependent upon the eventual strength of the ridge, with another 3-6” possible for the Sunday morning report.
The fourth and final wave in this storm cycle will bring additional snow for around Monday, though there is uncertainty around whether this starts Sunday night or early Monday. Early indications are another 5-10” of snow, which will be less dense than what fell during the warm part of the storm and more similar to the beginning. The end of the storm cycle will also usher in much colder temperatures as a ridge of high pressure builds over the West Coast and forces cold air from western Canada southward.
An inch of snow has already fallen at mid-mountain during the time it has taken me to write this weather narrative, as shown by Steamboat’s mid-mountain powdercam, so enjoy the storm cycle that could add up to three inches of liquid water to our snowpack, and check back for more details on the final wave in my next regularly scheduled update on Sunday afternoon.
Snow chances to last through Christmas week
Sunday, December 22, 2024
Temperatures have warmed toward thirty degrees in Steamboat Springs under mostly sunny skies late this Sunday morning, matching the temperature near the top of the Steamboat Ski Resort. This stretch of beautiful weather ends today as a series of Pacific waves brings snowfall chances to our area starting tonight and lasting through Christmas week, with a dry Tuesday facilitating any Christmas Eve travel.
A storm deflected into Montana has weakened the ridge of high pressure over the West which was responsible for our beautiful weather through the winter solstice, which occurred at 2:21 am on Saturday and marked the longest night of the year. However, a sprawling low pressure area extends southward from the Gulf of Alaska and westward to Siberia, and a series of waves traveling along the low pressure’s southern boundary will tap areas of subtropical moisture as they travel eastward across the Pacific.
The first wave of the holiday week will be the weakest and bring increasing clouds through the rest of today. Light snow showers could begin as soon as midnight tonight and continue through Monday evening, with maybe an inch or two possible by the Monday morning ski report at mid-mountain according to the more optimistic weather forecast model, and an additional 1-4” possible by Tuesday morning.
A brief ridge of high pressure will bring periods of sun on Tuesday for favorable travel conditions before a more promising storm crosses the West Coast during the day. Christmas Day may start dry, but snow showers should begin by the late morning or early afternoon and continue into Thursday morning, becoming heaviest in the afternoon and evening. Snowfall amounts are still uncertain since the storm splits as it crosses the Great Basin on Tuesday, similar to the earlier European ECMWF solution I discussed in my last weather narrative, but the southern end of the split will fortunately carry the bulk of the storm’s energy and moisture across Colorado.
I would expect 4-8” of snow for the Thursday morning report at mid-mountain, with a brief break on Thursday ahead of a continuing series of waves that bring snowfall chances starting Thursday afternoon or evening and lasting into Saturday morning. All of these waves will be relatively weak and fast-moving, but they occur in favorable winds from the northwest, which means snowfall accumulations could quickly add up.
The timing and strength of these waves are still in question, so enjoy the snow that does come during Christmas and I’ll have more details about what follows in my next regularly scheduled weather narrative on Thursday afternoon.
Sunny skies and warming temperatures to start the weekend
Thursday, December 19, 2024
Temperatures around twenty degrees at all elevations and bluebird skies are over the Steamboat Springs area this Thursday at noon. Warming temperatures and sunny skies will last through Saturday before increasing clouds on Sunday foreshadow a pattern change that will bring a series of storms overhead through Christmas week.
A ridge of high pressure has built over the West ahead of a sprawling low pressure area extending southward from the Gulf of Alaska and westward to Siberia. A series of waves traveling along the low pressure’s southern boundary will tap areas of subtropical moisture as they travel eastward across the Pacific, first weakening the ridge of high pressure overhead before moving it toward eastern North America.
The first wave strong enough to weaken the ridge will cross the Pacific Northwest coast on Saturday before traveling across Montana on Sunday. So the beautiful weather with mostly sunny skies should continue through Saturday, with the high temperature reaching near forty degrees in town, over ten degrees above our average of 29 F, and thirty degrees at the top of the Steamboat Ski Resort.
The wave will bring cooler air for Sunday, with high temperatures dropping several degrees along with some breezes ahead of the next stronger wave currently promising increasing clouds during the day and light snow showers beginning as early as Sunday night. The light snow should continue through Monday, becoming heaviest Monday night, before the storm passes ahead of a quick-moving ridge of high pressure which should bring nice weather for Tuesday.
Right now, a stronger storm, perhaps the remnants of the northern Pacific low pressure area, is forecast for around Christmas Day, though there is weather forecast model uncertainty as to whether the storm splits and weakens, according to the European ECMWF, or remains stronger and more cohesive, according to the American GFS.
So enjoy the beautiful start to the weekend, and I’ll have more details about the impending pattern change for Christmas week in my next regularly scheduled weather narrative on Sunday afternoon.
