Monsoon to bring good rain chances and cooler temperatures around midweek
Sunday, August 9, 2026
Temperatures are right at the 83-degree average under cloudy skies this Sunday mid-afternoon in Steamboat Springs. Above-average temperatures to start the workweek, with only slight late-day shower chances, will begin cooling by midweek as rain chances become likely. The monsoon becomes more active by Thursday, with cooler and wetter weather extending into the weekend and perhaps beyond.
The jet stream moving across the Northern Rockies has nudged a persistent ridge of high pressure over the West eastward, allowing the clockwise-rotating winds on the backside of the ridge to carry monsoonal moisture northward into our area. The increasing clouds are more than welcome, both for the eventual rain they will bring and for blocking the sun.
With the 95-degree temperatures a week ago Sunday, which broke the 93-degree record set in 2000, and Friday, which was short of the 97-degree record set in 2001, Steamboat Springs had the second warmest start to August since 1893, with the first 8 days of the month averaging a high temperature of 91.5 degrees, just below the 2001 record of 93 degrees.
We’ll have to endure another couple of days of high temperatures in the upper 80s, with mostly sunny mornings yielding to afternoon clouds and a possible stray shower producing more wind than rain. Today has been cooler than forecast due to the clouds, and that may or may not be the case on Monday and Tuesday.
Monsoonal moisture increases substantially by later Tuesday, just in time to threaten viewing of the Perseid meteor shower on Tuesday and Wednesday nights. Temperatures should cool into the mid-80s on Wednesday, with showers becoming likely on Thursday as high temperatures cool into the 70s, our first below-average day in 2 weeks, and only the second in a month.
Weather forecast models now predict around half an inch of rain between Thursday and Saturday, with the American GFS becoming wetter, closer to the drier-trending European ECMWF. But the rain will come with thunderstorms, which can produce brief, locally heavy rain, leading to uneven rainfall distribution.
So let’s hope for beneficial rains from this monsoon event, enjoy the eventual cooler temperatures, and I’ll have more details on the weekend’s shower chances in my next regularly scheduled weather narrative on Thursday afternoon.
Monsoon to return after a hot weekend
Thursday, August 6, 2026
Temperatures are just above 85 degrees under hazy skies this breezy Thursday mid-afternoon in Steamboat Springs. Even warmer temperatures in the low 90s are forecast for this weekend as monsoonal moisture starts to trickle into the area. Look for increasing afternoon cloudiness through the weekend and next week, with periods of smoke from the wildfires to our west. Rain chances will not emerge until after midweek, along with cooling temperatures.
A ridge of high pressure is over the West, with northwest winds carrying smoke, likely from the Big Grass Fire in southeast Oregon, over our area. The NOAA smoke model has the smoke moderating later today, only to be followed by another pulse of smoke around noon on Friday, which is also forecast to moderate by later in the day.
Meanwhile, energy ejected from a storm in the Gulf of Alaska will approach the British Columbia coast tomorrow, flattening the western ridge of high pressure while nudging it eastward. Temperatures will increase as the ridge moves overhead, with forecast highs through the weekend in the low 90s, almost 10 degrees above the 83-degree average.
Monsoonal moisture drawn northward by the clockwise rotation around the migrating high pressure will approach our area this weekend, producing afternoon and evening clouds. These clouds will persist through next week, with thunderstorms becoming more likely through the workweek. While the storms will start dry, rain will be possible after midweek, with the European ECMWF more optimistic than the drier American GFS.
So enjoy yet another hot summer weekend, as we likely don’t have many left, and I’ll have more details about the rain chances next week in my next regularly scheduled weather narrative on Sunday afternoon.
Another hot week after a record hot July
Sunday, August 2, 2026
Temperatures are approaching 95 degrees, above the 93-degree record set in 2000, with mostly sunny skies on this Sunday mid-afternoon in Steamboat Springs. After a record-hot July, we will see some relief by midweek as a storm moving across the Northern Rockies grazes our area with a dry cool front, though high temperatures will still stay above the 83-degree average. Temperatures warm again into the low-90s heading into the weekend with increasing monsoonal moisture, leading to possible precipitation after the weekend.
Though the 17 days in July above 90 degrees, including the 4th warmest day ever recorded in Steamboat Springs of 98 degrees on July 21st, were second to the record 19 days in 2002, this month tops the record books with the warmest average monthly high temperature of 89.4 degrees, breaking the 2002 record by a tenth of a degree, also set in July. Warm nights accompanied the hot days, and this month set the record for the warmest average overnight low of 49.3 degrees, breaking the July 2006 record by a tenth of a degree.
It’s no surprise, then, that holding the records for both the hottest highs and warmest lows means July 2026 now holds the new record for the warmest average monthly temperature of 69.4 degrees, shattering the July 2002 record by 1.5 degrees. That’s not hyperbole, as the next 4 spots are separated by only 0.8 degrees, occupied by the Julys of 2002, at 67.9 degrees, 2018 at 67.3 degrees, and 2007 and 2003 at 67.1 degrees.
While today will likely be another record, the standing records for the coming week appear safe, though it will still be hot, with high temperatures staying above our 83-degree average. That our average high will fall from 84 degrees today to 83 degrees on Monday means the 2.5-week-long heart of summer has passed, lasting from July 14th through August 2nd.
Monday will see another day in the low 90s. However, several grazing cool fronts extending south from a Pacific Northwest storm traveling across the Northern Rockies will modestly cool high temperatures to around 90 degrees on Tuesday, mid-to-upper 80s on Wednesday for the coolest day of the week, and upper 80s on Thursday.
Winds will also become breezy as the jet stream associated with the storm dips south, with 20 to 25 mph afternoon gusts likely, and the current southwesterly wind direction turning westerly on Tuesday and northwesterly by Thursday. Unfortunately, according to the NOAA smoke model, the current hazy skies from wildfires in Utah and Nevada will become hazier starting this afternoon, with air quality decreasing further on Tuesday as smoke from wildfires in Oregon, Washington, and Idaho is transported into our area by the westerly and northwesterly winds.
There is hope for monsoonal moisture to trickle back into our area as soon as the end of the workweek as the Northern Rockies storm nudges at least part of the ridge over the Southwest eastward, allowing weak southerly winds rotating around high pressure over the Southeast to carry some moisture northwards. While dew points will slowly increase heading into the weekend, current long-range forecasts have rains holding off until early next week.
As I am finishing up, the Purple Air air quality widget on the SnowAlarm home page shows us in orange, with an average of 2.5-micron particulate matter at 106 downtown. Let’s hope the wildfire smoke stays away, and I’ll have more details about the increasing moisture during another hot weekend in the low-90s in my next regularly scheduled weather narrative on Thursday afternoon.
Dry and back to the nineties for the weekend
Thursday, July 30, 2026
Temperatures are approaching 85 degrees under sunny skies this Thursday mid-afternoon in Steamboat Springs. Temperatures in the 90s return for the weekend, with Sunday’s 1931 record high of 96 degrees in jeopardy, with only slim storm chances later today and less on Friday.
A ridge of high pressure over the West was briefly flattened yesterday by a modicum of Pacific energy from the west conspiring with monsoonal moisture from the south, lowering high temperatures to the mid-80s, only slightly above the peak summertime average of 84 degrees. But we only managed to eke out about five-hundredths of an inch of rain, mostly overnight.
Drier air with much lower relative humidities will spread overhead through the weekend behind the passing wave under the rebounding ridge of high pressure. While high temperatures will soar back into the 90s, with Sunday’s forecast high of 96 degrees on par with the 1931 record for the date, low temperatures should drop from the upper 50s back to the upper 40s, close to the comfortable 47-degree average.
The NOAA smoke model, run four times a day, indicates that wildfire smoke from a couple of fires in Nevada and many more in Oregon and Washington may make its way toward our area for hazy skies starting on Friday.
The hot 90-degree temperatures are forecast to persist through the next workweek. However, there is a chance of another round of Pacific energy moving through the Pacific Northwest late in the weekend and early next week, possibly grazing our area around Tuesday.
So enjoy another hot summer weekend, the first of August, believe it or not, and I’ll have more details about the heat next week, and possibly records set earlier this week, in my next regularly scheduled weather narrative on Sunday afternoon.
Hot days and warm nights to continue, with rain chances through midweek
Sunday, July 26, 2026
Temperatures are at 95 degrees at the Bob Adams Airport in Steamboat Springs this Sunday mid-afternoon and 90 degrees near the base of the mountain, with mostly sunny skies but storms advancing from the southwest. High temperatures between 5 and 10 degrees above the 84-degree average will persist for the upcoming week, with monsoonal moisture bringing chances for late-day storms that peak on Wednesday. Shower chances diminish or end after midweek, lasting into next weekend.
A ridge of high pressure extends from the West Coast to the Appalachians, bringing hot temperatures to a large part of the U.S. This past week started hot, with last Monday’s 95-degree record, discussed in my last weather narrative on Thursday, eclipsed by another 98-degree record on Tuesday, breaking the previous 1931 record of 94 degrees, and marking another 4th-warmest day recorded in Steamboat Springs since 1893.
More uncomfortable have been the warm overnight low temperatures, with last Thursday’s low of 58 degrees breaking the 2010 record of 57 degrees, compared to our average of 47 degrees. So far in July, we have seen the warmest low temperatures recorded over both 1- and 2-week periods! In fact, the warmest 52.8-degree average low temperature for the 2 weeks from July 12th through July 25th, and the next-warmest 52.1 degrees from July 11th through July 24th, broke the 2003 51.9-degree record from July 16th through July 29th.
It was even warmer during the 1-week periods, with July 2026 currently holding the top four spots of 55.6 degrees from July 19th through July 25th, 55.4 degrees from July 18th through July 24th, 55.1 degrees from July 17th through July 23rd, and 54.1 degrees from July 16th through July 22nd. These all broke the previous 1998 record of 53.6 degrees from July 23rd through July 29th.
While we continue to see near-90-degree high temperatures this week, afternoon and evening thunderstorms from monsoonal moisture rotating northward across our area should bring late-day cooldowns, with any storms capable of producing heavy rain, strong winds, and small hail, peaking on Wednesday.
We are grazed by Pacific energy moving across the Northern Rockies on Wednesday, perhaps leading to the strongest storms of the week and high temperatures cooling into the upper-80s. The southwesterly winds following midweek behind the grazing energy will interrupt the monsoonal moisture tap from the south and bring drier air overhead starting on Thursday. There is disagreement among the weather forecast models as to whether this reduces or eliminates the storm threat as we head into next weekend, though they agree that the low-90-degree high temperatures return.
As I am putting the finishing touches on this blog at 5 pm, a strong thunderstorm is passing overhead, dropping a tenth of an inch of rain so far, and lowering temperatures by 22 degrees from 88 degrees at 4 pm to 66 degrees at 4:45 pm, including a 5-degree fall in just the 5 minutes between 4:25 pm and 4:30 pm.
So hope for additional moisture from the late-day thunderstorms through midweek, and I’ll have more details on how dry the weekend will be in my next regularly scheduled weather narrative on Thursday afternoon.
