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Precipitation chances finally appear near the end of the work week

Sunday, October 18, 2020

Similar to yesterday, the Steamboat Springs area is seeing temperatures in the mid-fifties under cloudy skies early this Sunday afternoon, with even a few drops of rain this morning. Breezy afternoons and warming temperatures will continue for most of the work week as we see more sun before some precipitation chances finally appear for the end of the work week. But the best news is a moderate winter-like storm is now possible for Sunday.

The weather pattern over North America is currently dominated by a strong vortex of cold air over Hudson Bay that extends southwestward into the central U.S. and a flat ridge of high pressure over the Gulf of Alaska. An active jet stream between the cold air to our northeast and the warm air to our southwest has been over or near our area this past week, and that looks to continue for most of the upcoming week.

As some warmer air is forecast to move overhead for the first half of the work week, we should see more sun than we have this weekend, though there may still be some clouds around as the driest air stays to our south. But look for temperatures to stay five to even fifteen degrees above our average high of 58 F, with Wednesday likely being the warmest and sunniest day of the week.

Meanwhile, a storm cut off from the jet stream near the dateline is forecast to merge with a strong eastward-moving storm currently over Japan by midweek and amplify the ridge of high pressure over the Gulf of Alaska. Pieces of energy ahead of and within this merged storm are forecast to travel over the ridge of high pressure and mix with the cold air over the Canadian Plains starting midweek.

While weather forecast models agree that these waves will produce a pattern change starting around Thursday, there is uncertainty with respect to their timing and strength and what eventually passes over our area. Right now, we have increasing chances of precipitation later on Thursday as the first storm passes mostly to our north. Precipitation amounts will likely be modest, but enhanced or diminished by the storm moving further south or north, respectively.

There may be another wave that brings precipitation to our area on Friday night, according to the American GFS, though the European ECMWF has that wave weaker and further south.

But there is agreement that a strong winter-like storm develops late in the work week as it slides down the North American west coast, and forecasts have this storm affecting our area as soon as later on Saturday. If current forecasts hold, this looks to be a snow event that should bring winter-like conditions to our area by Sunday morning.

The bulk of the snow looks to fall on Sunday, with the cold air staying put for Monday and possibly Tuesday as the precipitation becomes more showery. Considering the evolution of this mercurial storm in the past longer-range weather forecast models, I expect changes to the forecast as the event grows closer. Stay tuned to my next regularly scheduled weather narrative on Thursday afternoon for updates on our looming winter-like storm.

Breezy with mostly average temperatures this week

Thursday, October 15, 2020

The Steamboat Springs area is seeing a sunny and brisk fall day with temperatures in the upper forties this Thursday afternoon. Temperatures will generally warm towards the mid-sixties as the winds remain stout for the upcoming week, except for several dry cold fronts that will bring below average temperatures for at least Sunday and Thursday.

The current weather pattern over North America is dominated by an expansive ridge of high pressure off the West Coast and a vortex of cold air centered near Hudson Bay and extending through the Midwest and Northeast. The cold air won’t be going anywhere for the upcoming week, and we will be susceptible to cold fronts from occasional waves of Pacific energy traveling over the West Coast ridge in northwest flow and mixing with the cold air from the Canadian Plains.

Until the first cold front arrives early on Sunday, we should see lots of sun and breezy northwest winds as the jet stream continues to move overhead. Temperatures should warm to five or so degrees above our average of 59 F for both Friday and Saturday.

Temperatures on Sunday will fall below average behind the front. There may be enough moisture for more clouds and some very light high-elevation showers, possibly before the front Saturday night and more likely later Sunday afternoon and overnight.

We’ll see some warming on Monday and cooling on Tuesday if the weakest cold front of the upcoming week grazes the area as currently forecast. And that pattern repeats starting on Wednesday as we should see warming temperatures again ahead of a stronger cold front advertised for Thursday.

A peek at the longer-range weather forecast models show a similar pattern through the following weekend, with some warming ahead of another likely dry cold front around mid-weekend. Earlier this week, the usually more-consistent European ECMWF had some sort of storm forecast in about a week, though that model has trended drier and weaker with that storm, similar to the American GFS. Stay tuned to my next regularly scheduled weather narrative on Sunday afternoon to see if there are any changes to our generally dry and breezy weather forecast.

Seasonable weather for the upcoming week

Sunday, October 11, 2020

Temperatures are currently around 40 F late this Sunday afternoon in Steamboat Springs, after dropping from 60 F at 9 am to freezing around noon thanks to a strong cold front that moved through. While the snowflakes that fell this morning did briefly coat the non-paved surfaces in town with snow that quickly melted this afternoon, current breaks in the clouds reveal a white top to Mt. Werner. There may be another round of showers as we head into the evening before we’ll see a cold start to Columbus Day. Temperatures will quickly warm tomorrow afternoon and remain seasonable, but breezy, through the upcoming week, with a cool down expected on Thursday as a dry cold front passes through later Wednesday.

The cold front this morning was impressive, especially for those unlucky enough to be caught unawares. After the possibility of another shower or two as we head into the evening, we’ll see a quite cold night with low temperatures around twenty. But temperatures will quickly warm toward our average of 61 F, even under breezy winds from the west or northwest.

In fact, the elevated winds from the northwest and west look to stick around for much of the upcoming week as an active jet stream takes up residence over most of the country. But temperatures will warm to the mid-sixties on Tuesday and stay that way for most of the upcoming week, except for Thursday when they will drop below average thanks to a quick-moving and dry cold front currently timed for later Wednesday.

While a ridge of high pressure tries to build just off the West Coast behind the cold front that will affect us on Wednesday, additional waves of Pacific energy traveling over the ridge and interacting with the cold air centered near Hudson Bay will keep the recent unseasonably warm temperatures away. And while weather forecast models disagree on the outcome of the battle between the nascent West Coast ridge and cold air from Hudson Bay, they agree that through next weekend, the weather is looking dry, breezy and seasonable. Stay tuned to my next regularly scheduled weather narrative on Thursday afternoon to see what weather we may expect after next weekend.

Summery weather turns to fall weather on Sunday

Thursday, October 8, 2020

Temperatures are in the mid-seventies on this Thursday afternoon, on their way to the upper seventies, similar to yesterday when the temperature reached sixteen degrees above our 62 F average. More summery weather is expected through Saturday, with increasing winds, before a strong cold front moves through on Sunday with only modest precipitation expected. Dry but breezy weather returns for the following week, with cool temperatures starting the week on Columbus Day before moderating back towards average for much of the upcoming week.

A piece of energy left behind off the coast of California from a dry storm currently passing well to our north looks to remain detached from a strong and quick-moving storm in the Gulf of Alaska that is forecast to cross the Pacific Northwest coast early Saturday. There was hope in my last Sunday weather forecast that this piece of energy would be absorbed into the larger storm and bring good precipitation to our area, but it appears that we will instead experience a much drier cold front on Sunday when the Gulf of Alaska storm passes through.

Ahead of the front, winds from the southwest will be increasing on another warm Saturday afternoon, which bodes ill for wildfire behavior. There will be some precipitation along and behind the cold front which is expected sometime Sunday morning, with showers possible through the day and evening under cool temperatures in the fifties. Precipitation looks quite modest though, and heaviest to our north, with as much as a tenth or two of liquid expected to bring several inches of snow at the higher elevations. However, we may end up with even less as the latest weather forecast models are trending drier with the storm.

Columbus Day looks to be a brisk and dry fall day with highs once again in the fifties, but with breezy winds from the west or northwest. In fact, breezy winds look to continue through the work week as the jet stream, which separates the cold air to our north from the warm air to our south, sags over our region.

But temperatures will warm back toward average on Tuesday and Wednesday before another dry cool front passes by around Thursday and drops our high temperatures back into the fifties. Temperatures are expected to recover on Friday and into the following weekend before there is a possibility of another storm affecting our region later in the weekend. I’ll know more by my next regularly scheduled weather narrative on Sunday afternoon.

More gorgeous fall weather precedes wintry weather around next weekend

Sunday, October 4, 2020

The temperature has already hit 67 F early this Sunday afternoon in Steamboat Springs under sunny skies. More gorgeous fall weather is forecast for the work week before a strong storm brings precipitation and much colder temperatures to our area around next Sunday.

A storm currently moving across the Pacific Northwest has temporarily flattened a ridge of high pressure over the west. Before that storm grazes our area late tonight and Monday, temperatures will warm to the low seventies, almost ten degrees above our average of 64 F.

There has been some clearing of the smoke from the Middle Fork fire that was more concentrated over our area on Saturday, thanks to some increasing winds from the west, but the NOAA Smoke Plume Model also predicts these winds will move a batch of smoke from fires in the Uinta mountain range in eastern Utah over our area tonight. Though the model has the smoke clearing by sunrise, we’ll see if local wind patterns keep that smoke around longer than the model predicts.

Breezy westerly winds turning to northwesterly will be with us on Monday as that grazing storm passes by, and we should see temperatures dip a few degrees from today, closer towards average, under continued sunny skies.

The western ridge of high pressure will rebuild behind the grazing storm, keeping our sunny skies around and allowing temperatures once again to rise into the seventies on Tuesday.

Enjoy this gorgeous fall weather for most of the rest of the week as a jolting pattern change is in our future. A strong storm is forecast to move across the northern Pacific through the work week and affect our area around next weekend. Current timing brings the bulk of the storm through our area next Sunday, though the details and timing will likely change as the storm approaches.

In fact, there is weather forecast model uncertainty as to whether there is a leading part of the storm which moves over later Saturday or is absorbed into the main storm on Sunday. And while it currently appears we will receive a good dose of much needed precipitation, with snow at the higher elevations, it is not clear if most of that precipitation will fall as rain in the Yampa Valley before turning to snow later in the storm.

But by Monday, the weather forecast models agree that the precipitation will turn far more showery behind the storm with a cold and raw day likely. And though there is a lot of weather to get through between now and then, longer-range forecasts call for drying by Tuesday with warming temperatures later in the day, with dry and warmer weather continuing past midweek. Stay tuned to my next regularly scheduled weather narrative on Thursday afternoon for more details on this end-of-weekend storm.

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