Cold front to bring snow Friday night
Thursday, February 6, 2025
Temperatures are in the upper thirties in Steamboat Springs and the mid-twenties near the top of the Steamboat Ski Resort under mostly sunny skies late this Thursday morning. The warm temperatures this week will persist through Friday ahead of a cold front Friday evening bringing another round of windy conditions Friday afternoon, snow Friday night, and seasonable temperatures for the rest of the weekend.
The small storm that was possible in my last weather narrative did not materialize as there turned out to be only enough moisture for some clouds. So we are left with a mostly sunny day with high temperatures reaching the forties, well above our average of 32 F. In fact, this whole workweek has been delightfully warm after our record cold temperatures two weeks ago, with both Monday and Tuesday breaking average temperature records for the date thanks to overnight lows well above our average of 6 F. The daily average temperature, calculated by averaging the high and low temperature for the day, was 41.5 F on Monday, breaking the 2018 record by three degrees, and 38.5 on Tuesday, breaking the 1953 record by two degrees. As warm as it felt, the high temperature on Monday was 53 F, shy of the 56 F record set in 1930, while the Tuesday high of 47 F was ten degrees cooler than the 57 F record set in 1934.
A storm previously off the coast of Vancouver has elongated to the southwest as it moved southward off the Pacific Northwest coast this week. A wave of energy and cold air moving around a building ridge of high pressure extending south from Alaska will dislodge the bulk of the storm eastward, bringing first clouds and wind during the day Friday ahead of a cold front Friday evening.
On another warm Friday, mountaintop winds could reach 60 mph from the west-southwest Friday afternoon, perhaps causing some lift issues similar to Wednesday. There may be some high-elevation snow showers ahead of the front, but moderate to sometimes heavy snows should occur along and behind the cold Friday evening and overnight under diminishing winds.
Cold air, with mountaintop temperatures falling to the low single digits and winds shifting to our favorable northwest direction, should allow 6-12” of snow to accumulate at mid-mountain by the Saturday morning ski report, and perhaps create periods of difficult overnight travel over Rabbit Ears Pass.
High temperatures in town look to fall from the forties on Friday into the twenties on Saturday, with low temperatures heading back down to single digits by Sunday morning. After some clearing on Saturday, another much smaller piece of the Pacific Northwest storm may bring some snow showers overnight, with perhaps 1-4” possible by the Sunday morning report.
There may be some clearing on Sunday, but cool and unsettled weather looks to persist into the workweek as a wave of energy from eastern Siberia moves over the Alaskan ridge of high pressure, encouraging cold air from a vortex of low pressure over Hudson Bay to move southwestward across the Canadian Plains and toward our area. So enjoy the gorgeous day today, be prepared for a return to wintry conditions this weekend, and check back to my next regularly scheduled weather narrative on Sunday afternoon for more details on the continued wintry weather.
Warm and mostly cloudy skies to persist with some precipitation chances midweek
Sunday, February 2, 2025
Temperatures are in the low forties in Steamboat Springs and upper twenties near the top of the Steamboat Ski Resort early this Sunday afternoon under cloudy skies. After snowfall through much of the day Saturday, southwest winds have pushed the active weather northward, leaving warm temperatures and mostly cloudy skies that will persist into midweek. A grazing disturbance will bring precipitation chances back to our area later Wednesday into Thursday followed by another break ahead of a possibly stronger storm for the weekend.
The weekend weather forecast proved to be as challenging as feared, with almost all snowfall occurring within the first pulse of the Pineapple Express moisture. By the morning ski report, three inches of snow fell at all elevations starting around 3 am Saturday, with an additional 6.5” at mid-mountain and 10” up top by 5 pm Saturday, before increasing southwest winds pushed the active weather northward. The forecast from my last weather narrative was corrupted by an earlier and stronger moisture injection from the storm north of Hawaii and the stronger southwest winds from the merged storm centers off the Vancouver coast.
Now, the Vancouver storm is forecast to elongate to the southwest before a piece moves eastward and merges with the Hawaii storm and its associated atmospheric river, crossing the West coast early Wednesday. A broad ridge of high pressure ahead of the storm extending from the Desert Southwest northward will keep our high temperatures around ten degrees or more above our 32 F average, and low temperatures almost twenty degrees above our 6 F average. Drier air from the Desert Southwest will allow for some sun on Monday for the nicest day of the coming workweek.
Clouds will be back on Tuesday, with the weather forecast models disagreeing on how much moisture makes it past the Sierra Nevadas and how close it will be to our area. The American GFS is the most pessimistic, with a cloudy Wednesday and meager precipitation, however a blended forecast yields an average of around six inches of snow by the Thursday morning report, with a rain-snow mix in town.
Meanwhile, a storm rounding a ridge of high pressure extending southward from Alaska is forecast to eventually dislodge the rest of the still-elongating Vancouver storm and bring it toward our area next weekend. The storm looks colder, dropping temperatures below average, but nowhere near as cold as last week’s arctic outbreak, with significant snow possible.
So soak up the sun on Monday, hope for midweek snow, and check back to my next regularly scheduled weather narrative on Thursday afternoon for the latest details on the possible weekend storm.
Pineapple Express to bring rain, snow and wind this weekend
Thursday, January 30, 2025
Crystal clear skies with cool temperatures near ten degrees in Steamboat Springs and the low twenties near the top of the Steamboat Ski Resort are over the area this Thursday at noon. We’ll see another nice day on Friday before an approaching storm brings increasing winds, moisture and temperatures starting Friday night and lasting through the weekend.
A complex series of features as seen by the water vapor satellite imagery over the eastern Pacific includes a couple of storm centers extending south from the Gulf of Alaska, a storm just north of Hawaii, and an atmospheric river extending from Hawaii to Vancouver, the so-called Pineapple Express. Interestingly, the two Gulf of Alaska storms evolved from the splitting Aleutian storm discussed in my last weather narrative from Sunday, and are destined to meet again on Friday.
A ridge of high pressure ahead of these features is over most of the West, allowing for the sunny days and clear nights this workweek. These conditions have allowed the stubborn low-level temperature inversion in Yampa Valley to persist, forcing subzero nights over ten degrees below the five-degree average and high temperatures struggling to reach our average of 31 F.
We should see another nice day Friday before the Gulf of Alaska storms merge and push the ridge of high pressure eastward. Winds will shift from the cold north to the mild west during the day as the merged storm system spins over Vancouver. Meanwhile, southwest winds ahead of the storm north of Hawaii will direct a firehose of moisture toward the Vancouver storm, bringing heavy precipitation to the Pacific Northwest on Friday. Energy ejecting from the storm will carry Pacific moisture across the northern Rockies, first bringing increasing clouds to our area Friday night, and showers by Saturday evening, including gusty winds from the west as high as 70 mph around midnight.
Snow levels will rise through the weekend, reaching the valley bottom by Saturday morning and Christie Peak on Sunday. So expect any precipitation to be a rain-snow mix in town on Saturday, ending up as more rain than snow on Sunday.
Snowfall guesses are problematic as a wavering stationary front extending eastward from the Vancouver storm will separate the cold air to our north from the warm air to our south. Additionally, the width and location of the atmospheric river are still changing in the weather forecast models, making it unclear how much moisture may eventually move overhead. One sometimes-right model predicts up to six inches of snow by the Sunday morning report with temperatures falling to five degrees up top, likely making for some good skiing, wind-affected snow from Saturday night notwithstanding.
Precipitation will likely extend into Monday before we see a break ahead of more snow chances by midweek as at least a piece of the Vancouver storm moves nearby. So enjoy the beautiful weather before the weekend, check the mid-mountain Powdercam and upper-mountain Powdercam first thing Sunday morning for the ground truth, as I will, and check back in the afternoon for my next regularly scheduled weather narrative where I’ll have more details on the next possible storm.
Weather to clear this afternoon ahead of a nice workweek
Sunday, January 26, 2025
Temperatures are in the upper teens in Steamboat Springs and low teens near the top of the Steamboat Ski Resort with occasional snow flurries this Sunday mid-morning. Skies should begin clearing later today with seasonable temperatures and more sun than not forecast for most of the workweek. Unsettled weather looks to return around next weekend.
A ridge of high pressure currently extends southward from the Gulf of Alaska while an eddy of low pressure spins just off the central California coast. The stationary front that brought five inches of snow to mid-mountain and eight inches up top through the weekend is being further deprived of moisture as the California eddy moves southward. So the light snow showers prevalent at higher elevations will continue to diminish today ahead of some sun for the afternoon.
The weather pattern for the workweek will be quiet as our region will be caught in the col between the California eddy and the northwest flow to our north rounding the Gulf of Alaska ridge. Seasonable temperatures with highs between five degrees above and below our thirty-degree average will persist through the workweek, with low temperatures on the cooler side of our five-degree average as periods of clear skies, light winds and snow cover create ideal conditions for the usual high-valley temperature inversions to form.
The eddy of low pressure is forecast to elongate and wobble first southward and then eastward through Arizona on Tuesday and Wednesday, and New Mexico on Thursday. While southern Colorado will see some precipitation during this period, we will remain dry, with more sun than not and some gusty easterly winds beginning around Monday night thanks to air moving counterclockwise around the eddy.
While the eddy may eventually bring a storm to the Front Range around the end of the workweek, another storm currently extending south from the Aleutian Islands is forecast to move eastward, pushing the weakening West Coast ridge eastward and over our area. So we should close out the workweek on a pleasant note before unsettled weather begins around next weekend as the Aleutian storm approaches.
There is quite a bit of uncertainty regarding the next storm cycle due to the splitting nature of the Aleutian storm as it moves through the Gulf of Alaska midweek. So enjoy the pleasant workweek, with near-average temperatures for a change, and check back to my next regularly scheduled weather narrative on Thursday afternoon for more details on the possible weekend storm.
Arctic air mass to retreat starting Friday thanks to a moderate storm
Thursday, January 23, 2025
Temperatures are only near ten degrees in Steamboat Springs this Thursday at noon and minus three degrees near the top of the Steamboat Ski resort under cloudy skies with high-elevation flurries. An approaching storm will displace the unseasonably cold arctic air mass by Friday afternoon, bringing light to moderate snowfall that will last into Sunday.
It’s been quite the frigid week in Steamboat Springs, with one daily temperature record broken on Monday when the high temperature reached only five degrees, three degrees colder than the record set in 1937. But the cold was also unusually persistent, with the average high temperature of 6.5 degrees recorded over Monday and Tuesday breaking the 1924 record by two degrees, the 8.7 degrees recorded over Sunday, Monday and Tuesday breaking the 1937 record by two degrees, and the 9.3 degrees recorded between Saturday and Tuesday breaking the 11.5 degree record from 1984. While Tuesday morning was cold with -24 F recorded at the downtown weather station, we escaped the -34 F record, set in 1935, though the SnowAlarm weather station near the base of the ski area recorded a low of -29 F.
Meanwhile, a storm rounding a building ridge of high pressure in the Gulf of Alaska is forecast to split as it moves over the Pacific Northwest on Friday. A small ridge of high pressure will pass through our area ahead of the storm, bringing clearing skies by this afternoon or evening and allowing another round of subzero temperatures for Friday morning, below our average of five degrees.
The southern end of the split is forecast to eventually form an eddy off the northern California coast by Saturday, allowing first westerly and then southwesterly winds to warm the atmosphere. Additionally, some Pacific moisture will be brought overhead, overunning a stationary front in our proximity separating the warm air to our south from the arctic air still to our north.
Light snow showers should begin Friday afternoon, becoming moderate at times from Friday night through Saturday before tapering off through Saturday night into Sunday morning. We could see 2-5” of snow by the Saturday morning mid-mountain report, another 2-5” during the day and an additional 1-4” by the Sunday morning report
There is some uncertainty in the snow and temperature forecasts due to the eventual position of the stationary front, with a stronger push from the southwest nudging warmer temperatures and snow to the north. These stationary fronts also tend to waver as energy ejecting from the upstream eddy moves overhead, perhaps creating breaks in snowfall interspersed with heavier showers.
After meandering over northern California through the weekend, the eddy is forecast to move first south through the weekend, then east across the Desert Southwest, bringing desperately needed precipitation to the wildfire disaster ongoing in southern California on Sunday and Monday. We should see some nice and seasonable weather to end the weekend and start the next workweek, with high temperatures finally in the twenties, approaching the average of thirty degrees.
Enjoy the snow and warmer temperatures, and check back Sunday afternoon for my next regularly scheduled weather narrative where I’ll discuss how long we can expect the nice conditions to persist.
