Nice weather on Monday to precede a cold storm later Tuesday and Wednesday
Sunday, February 9, 2025
Skies have cleared this Sunday mid-afternoon in Steamboat Springs with temperatures in the upper twenties in town and upper single digits at the top of the Steamboat Ski Resort. A mostly sunny Monday will precede a mostly cloudy Tuesday ahead of a couple waves of frigid air from the north bringing snow for Wednesday. Thursday morning will see the coldest temperatures of the week ahead of increasing temperatures and moisture starting Friday.
After 10” at mid-mountain at the Steamboat Ski Resort Saturday morning, and 13” up top, the small storm last night delivered an additional 5” of fluff at mid-mountain and 8” up top thanks to ideal snowflake-forming temperatures, cold winds from our favorable northwest direction and jet stream energy.
An expansive vortex of cold air currently sits over most of Canada, a sharp ridge of high pressure extends south from Alaska, and a strong storm just to its west is evolving near the Aleutian Islands. A wave of energy that traveled over the ridge has mixed with frigid air from western Canada, with another such wave quickly following.
These waves will bring a couple of surges of arctic air through our area later Tuesday and Wednesday along with fluffy snow that will likely accumulate fastest on Tuesday night, and may or may not continue through Wednesday night. Snowfall accounts for the entire storm are currently modest, with model blends predicting around six inches, but amounts could be inflated by the fluffy snow, as they were last night. My guess would be 2-5” by the Wednesday morning report with another 2-5” possible on a cold Thursday morning, with low temperatures in town dropping to the minus single digits, and perhaps minus teens if skies clear before sunrise, well below our average of 7 F.
Ahead of that, Monday looks quite nice with mostly sunny skies and high temperatures in the twenties, around five degrees below our average of 33 F, A mostly cloudy Tuesday could keep high temperatures several degrees cooler before the first arctic front begins light snowfall as early as Tuesday afternoon and drops temperatures.
Meanwhile, the Aleutian storm is forecast to shed a wave of energy incorporating some tropical moisture in an atmospheric river on Tuesday before it travels through the ridge of high pressure on Wednesday. Additionally, cold air from western Canada will also slide further west across Alaska, severing the ridge of high pressure and forcing a pattern change in the jet stream. This will not only push the arctic air northward and away from our area, but will also allow the atmospheric river to impinge on California on Thursday and approach our area on Friday.
We could see several days of dense snowfall from this arrangement, but there could still be changes in the forecast this week. So enjoy a nice Monday and the wintry weather that follows, and check back for my next regularly scheduled weather narrative on Thursday afternoon where I’ll have more details on the incoming atmospheric river for next weekend.
Cold front to bring snow Friday night
Thursday, February 6, 2025
Temperatures are in the upper thirties in Steamboat Springs and the mid-twenties near the top of the Steamboat Ski Resort under mostly sunny skies late this Thursday morning. The warm temperatures this week will persist through Friday ahead of a cold front Friday evening bringing another round of windy conditions Friday afternoon, snow Friday night, and seasonable temperatures for the rest of the weekend.
The small storm that was possible in my last weather narrative did not materialize as there turned out to be only enough moisture for some clouds. So we are left with a mostly sunny day with high temperatures reaching the forties, well above our average of 32 F. In fact, this whole workweek has been delightfully warm after our record cold temperatures two weeks ago, with both Monday and Tuesday breaking average temperature records for the date thanks to overnight lows well above our average of 6 F. The daily average temperature, calculated by averaging the high and low temperature for the day, was 41.5 F on Monday, breaking the 2018 record by three degrees, and 38.5 on Tuesday, breaking the 1953 record by two degrees. As warm as it felt, the high temperature on Monday was 53 F, shy of the 56 F record set in 1930, while the Tuesday high of 47 F was ten degrees cooler than the 57 F record set in 1934.
A storm previously off the coast of Vancouver has elongated to the southwest as it moved southward off the Pacific Northwest coast this week. A wave of energy and cold air moving around a building ridge of high pressure extending south from Alaska will dislodge the bulk of the storm eastward, bringing first clouds and wind during the day Friday ahead of a cold front Friday evening.
On another warm Friday, mountaintop winds could reach 60 mph from the west-southwest Friday afternoon, perhaps causing some lift issues similar to Wednesday. There may be some high-elevation snow showers ahead of the front, but moderate to sometimes heavy snows should occur along and behind the cold Friday evening and overnight under diminishing winds.
Cold air, with mountaintop temperatures falling to the low single digits and winds shifting to our favorable northwest direction, should allow 6-12” of snow to accumulate at mid-mountain by the Saturday morning ski report, and perhaps create periods of difficult overnight travel over Rabbit Ears Pass.
High temperatures in town look to fall from the forties on Friday into the twenties on Saturday, with low temperatures heading back down to single digits by Sunday morning. After some clearing on Saturday, another much smaller piece of the Pacific Northwest storm may bring some snow showers overnight, with perhaps 1-4” possible by the Sunday morning report.
There may be some clearing on Sunday, but cool and unsettled weather looks to persist into the workweek as a wave of energy from eastern Siberia moves over the Alaskan ridge of high pressure, encouraging cold air from a vortex of low pressure over Hudson Bay to move southwestward across the Canadian Plains and toward our area. So enjoy the gorgeous day today, be prepared for a return to wintry conditions this weekend, and check back to my next regularly scheduled weather narrative on Sunday afternoon for more details on the continued wintry weather.
Warm and mostly cloudy skies to persist with some precipitation chances midweek
Sunday, February 2, 2025
Temperatures are in the low forties in Steamboat Springs and upper twenties near the top of the Steamboat Ski Resort early this Sunday afternoon under cloudy skies. After snowfall through much of the day Saturday, southwest winds have pushed the active weather northward, leaving warm temperatures and mostly cloudy skies that will persist into midweek. A grazing disturbance will bring precipitation chances back to our area later Wednesday into Thursday followed by another break ahead of a possibly stronger storm for the weekend.
The weekend weather forecast proved to be as challenging as feared, with almost all snowfall occurring within the first pulse of the Pineapple Express moisture. By the morning ski report, three inches of snow fell at all elevations starting around 3 am Saturday, with an additional 6.5” at mid-mountain and 10” up top by 5 pm Saturday, before increasing southwest winds pushed the active weather northward. The forecast from my last weather narrative was corrupted by an earlier and stronger moisture injection from the storm north of Hawaii and the stronger southwest winds from the merged storm centers off the Vancouver coast.
Now, the Vancouver storm is forecast to elongate to the southwest before a piece moves eastward and merges with the Hawaii storm and its associated atmospheric river, crossing the West coast early Wednesday. A broad ridge of high pressure ahead of the storm extending from the Desert Southwest northward will keep our high temperatures around ten degrees or more above our 32 F average, and low temperatures almost twenty degrees above our 6 F average. Drier air from the Desert Southwest will allow for some sun on Monday for the nicest day of the coming workweek.
Clouds will be back on Tuesday, with the weather forecast models disagreeing on how much moisture makes it past the Sierra Nevadas and how close it will be to our area. The American GFS is the most pessimistic, with a cloudy Wednesday and meager precipitation, however a blended forecast yields an average of around six inches of snow by the Thursday morning report, with a rain-snow mix in town.
Meanwhile, a storm rounding a ridge of high pressure extending southward from Alaska is forecast to eventually dislodge the rest of the still-elongating Vancouver storm and bring it toward our area next weekend. The storm looks colder, dropping temperatures below average, but nowhere near as cold as last week’s arctic outbreak, with significant snow possible.
So soak up the sun on Monday, hope for midweek snow, and check back to my next regularly scheduled weather narrative on Thursday afternoon for the latest details on the possible weekend storm.
Pineapple Express to bring rain, snow and wind this weekend
Thursday, January 30, 2025
Crystal clear skies with cool temperatures near ten degrees in Steamboat Springs and the low twenties near the top of the Steamboat Ski Resort are over the area this Thursday at noon. We’ll see another nice day on Friday before an approaching storm brings increasing winds, moisture and temperatures starting Friday night and lasting through the weekend.
A complex series of features as seen by the water vapor satellite imagery over the eastern Pacific includes a couple of storm centers extending south from the Gulf of Alaska, a storm just north of Hawaii, and an atmospheric river extending from Hawaii to Vancouver, the so-called Pineapple Express. Interestingly, the two Gulf of Alaska storms evolved from the splitting Aleutian storm discussed in my last weather narrative from Sunday, and are destined to meet again on Friday.
A ridge of high pressure ahead of these features is over most of the West, allowing for the sunny days and clear nights this workweek. These conditions have allowed the stubborn low-level temperature inversion in Yampa Valley to persist, forcing subzero nights over ten degrees below the five-degree average and high temperatures struggling to reach our average of 31 F.
We should see another nice day Friday before the Gulf of Alaska storms merge and push the ridge of high pressure eastward. Winds will shift from the cold north to the mild west during the day as the merged storm system spins over Vancouver. Meanwhile, southwest winds ahead of the storm north of Hawaii will direct a firehose of moisture toward the Vancouver storm, bringing heavy precipitation to the Pacific Northwest on Friday. Energy ejecting from the storm will carry Pacific moisture across the northern Rockies, first bringing increasing clouds to our area Friday night, and showers by Saturday evening, including gusty winds from the west as high as 70 mph around midnight.
Snow levels will rise through the weekend, reaching the valley bottom by Saturday morning and Christie Peak on Sunday. So expect any precipitation to be a rain-snow mix in town on Saturday, ending up as more rain than snow on Sunday.
Snowfall guesses are problematic as a wavering stationary front extending eastward from the Vancouver storm will separate the cold air to our north from the warm air to our south. Additionally, the width and location of the atmospheric river are still changing in the weather forecast models, making it unclear how much moisture may eventually move overhead. One sometimes-right model predicts up to six inches of snow by the Sunday morning report with temperatures falling to five degrees up top, likely making for some good skiing, wind-affected snow from Saturday night notwithstanding.
Precipitation will likely extend into Monday before we see a break ahead of more snow chances by midweek as at least a piece of the Vancouver storm moves nearby. So enjoy the beautiful weather before the weekend, check the mid-mountain Powdercam and upper-mountain Powdercam first thing Sunday morning for the ground truth, as I will, and check back in the afternoon for my next regularly scheduled weather narrative where I’ll have more details on the next possible storm.
Weather to clear this afternoon ahead of a nice workweek
Sunday, January 26, 2025
Temperatures are in the upper teens in Steamboat Springs and low teens near the top of the Steamboat Ski Resort with occasional snow flurries this Sunday mid-morning. Skies should begin clearing later today with seasonable temperatures and more sun than not forecast for most of the workweek. Unsettled weather looks to return around next weekend.
A ridge of high pressure currently extends southward from the Gulf of Alaska while an eddy of low pressure spins just off the central California coast. The stationary front that brought five inches of snow to mid-mountain and eight inches up top through the weekend is being further deprived of moisture as the California eddy moves southward. So the light snow showers prevalent at higher elevations will continue to diminish today ahead of some sun for the afternoon.
The weather pattern for the workweek will be quiet as our region will be caught in the col between the California eddy and the northwest flow to our north rounding the Gulf of Alaska ridge. Seasonable temperatures with highs between five degrees above and below our thirty-degree average will persist through the workweek, with low temperatures on the cooler side of our five-degree average as periods of clear skies, light winds and snow cover create ideal conditions for the usual high-valley temperature inversions to form.
The eddy of low pressure is forecast to elongate and wobble first southward and then eastward through Arizona on Tuesday and Wednesday, and New Mexico on Thursday. While southern Colorado will see some precipitation during this period, we will remain dry, with more sun than not and some gusty easterly winds beginning around Monday night thanks to air moving counterclockwise around the eddy.
While the eddy may eventually bring a storm to the Front Range around the end of the workweek, another storm currently extending south from the Aleutian Islands is forecast to move eastward, pushing the weakening West Coast ridge eastward and over our area. So we should close out the workweek on a pleasant note before unsettled weather begins around next weekend as the Aleutian storm approaches.
There is quite a bit of uncertainty regarding the next storm cycle due to the splitting nature of the Aleutian storm as it moves through the Gulf of Alaska midweek. So enjoy the pleasant workweek, with near-average temperatures for a change, and check back to my next regularly scheduled weather narrative on Thursday afternoon for more details on the possible weekend storm.
